MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil and Argentina's presidential race

Former Argentine president Adolfo Rodríguez Saá and opposition deputy Elisa Carrió are technically equal in vote intention for the coming March presidential elections according to the latest poll published this Sunday in the Buenos Aires press.

Mr. Rodríguez Saá, from the Peronist party who was president for a week at the end of 2001, has 15,6% of vote intention, while Elisa Carrió who heads a grouping of left organizations under the encompassing name of a "Republic of Equals", manages 15,3%.

"The difference is minimal so there's no way saying who's ahead", indicated Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, from Ibope, the polling company.

Mr. Rodríguez Saá was governor of a small northern province of San Luis for 18 years one of the few well managed, and with support from other governors was president briefly after Mr. De la Rúa was forced to resign following street protests that left 30 people dead in December 2001. However, it was during that week that Argentina defaulted and he personally was hailed by almost the whole of Congress when he made the official announcement addressing the General Assembly.

Apparently the former charismatic governor has managed to attract a cross cut of Argentine society, both politically, socially and ideologically, "although this could have much to do with desperation, people desperately looking for an alternative", explained Mr. Zuleta Puceiro.

Mr. Rodríguez Saá still has to face in the November Peronist primaries, former president Carlos Menem, and governors from Cordoba, Manuel De la Sota, (who has president Duhalde's support); from Salta, Juan Carlos Romero and from Santa Cruz, Nestor Kichner.

"It's too early to make any mid term forecast. Most campaigns are just taking off", said Mr. Zuleta Puceiro.

Ms. Elisa Carrió is the only real opposition candidate who became famous a year ago when she denounced political involvement in money laundering activities, blaming Argentina's main political parties, Peronists and Radicales for the current economic crisis, one of the worst in the country's history. Ms. Carrió is particularly critical of the Menem administration, claiming corruption was rampant during the former president's ten years in power. Mr. Menem is currently fighting back following the discovery of several undeclared accounts in Swiss banks under his name or of close associates.

However Ms. Carrió has also been summoned to court for accusing former Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo of having secret accounts overseas, a charge so far unfounded.

Wall Street candidate tumbling

Incumbent presidential candidate José Serra, man hand picked by Brazilian president Fernando Cardoso to continue with his market oriented policies, and openly supported by Wall Street investors, keeps plummeting in public opinion according to the latest polls published this Sunday in Brazil's main newspapers.

Brazil will be holding presidential elections next October 6th.

Pollster Vox Populi indicates that Mr. Serra dropped from 12 to 10% in vote intention, while his main contenders, --both irritating for overseas investors--, Ciro Gomes jumped three points, 29 to 32, and leading candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva gained another point and now stands with 35%.

However Mr. Serra and President Cardoso's followers trust that as of next August 20th, the government's candidate should begin to recover with the massive television coverage his entitled according to Brazilian electoral legislation.

Wall Street believes Mr. Serra is the best man to continue with president Cardoso's open market policies that attracted massive foreign investment giving Brazil almost a decade of stability, although very modest growth".

Foreign investors fear the two leading candidates, both left wing oriented, could forced by electoral promises decide not to honour Brazil's massive 250 billion US dollars national debt. This feeling has turned Brazilian bonds and currency highly volatile and forced a quick response from the IMF that has promised another 30 billion US dollars stand by support.

However most of it, 24 billion, will be disbursed after the October presidential election, conditioned to the continuation of certain basic policies.

With this in mind president Cardoso has convened candidates for this week to discuss a stable transition until next January, when his elected successor takes office.

The poll was carried out between August 15/16, involving 1,806 people in the country's main urban areas.

But in spite of the ample media coverage, highly indicative of the non political spirit of the Brazilian electorate is the fact that according to Vox Populi, 46% of those interviewed said they have yet to decide whom they will be voting in the coming elections.