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Montevideo, March 28th 2024 - 16:22 UTC

 

 

Peronists clearly ahead

Monday, August 26th 2002 - 21:00 UTC
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The sum of vote intention for the different Peronist candidates in Argentina's next March presidential election indicates a clear victory for this party that has dominated the country's politics since 1940, according to the latest result of a weekly Ipsos-Mora poll published in the Buenos Aires Sunday press.

With just seven months to go, the only leader that manages more than 20% support is Peronist Santa Fe governor, Carlos Reutemann who actually decided not to run.

The Peronist hopefuls in order of importance, following the latest poll, are former president Adolfo Rodríguez Sáa, Santa Cruz governor Nestor Kirchner, former president Carlos Menem and Córdoba governor José Manuel de la Sota. Together they would automatically accumulate 46,8%, 1,8% above the 45% of the first presidential round, ensuring Peronist victory.

The main opposition candidate is independent Deputy Elisa Carrió, who emerged into public light with strong popular support after criticising overall corruption in the political system and particularly in the former Menem administration. However in this last poll she lost three points and now stands behind Mr. Rodríguez Sáa, and the 20% threshold with just 15,9%.

The poll also indicates that 13,5% of those interviewed are undecided, will not participate or will destroy their ballot.

Another interesting conclusion of the poll is that the long established bipartisan system in Argentina for this election is non existent, since no Radical party name figures among the eight leading presidential candidates.

Actually the split that has neutralized the Radical party since the re-emergence of democracy back in 1983 is as present as ever.

Ms. Carrió, originally a Radical Deputy and running on her own organization, has openly embraced the classic left, while former minister and economist Ricardo López Murphy (4,5%) is identified with the political right wing and liberal economic policies.

But the Peronist party has its own problems. For the first time its sense of verticality and disciplined pragmatism to reach power is diluted in at least five candidates, plus the on going unresolved feud between former president Carlos Menem and ruling Eduardo Duhalde, that could still abort primaries scheduled for next November.

According to the Argentine press, given the current electoral scenario, some political science experts are beginning to question if the country is really heading for a new start or will it fall into an "atavist cultural nationalism" mood such as the regional isolation during the Second World War or "an eccentric challenge" such as the 1982 "Malvinas" fiasco.

Poll's interviews were taken in the first week of August, among 1,200 people above 18 year, covering the most important metropolitan areas of Argentina. Results are published weekly.

Categories: Mercosur.

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