MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chavez devalued and out of tune on his ninth anniversary

Controversial Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is celebrating this Saturday his ninth year in office but the outspoken, histrionic leader has lost much of his revolutionary élan following his first electoral defeat last December and surrounded by growing problems of internal security, inflation and shortages of food and home supplies.

The former parachutist officer and coup instigator was first elected in December 1998, with 56.2% of the vote. The following year he reformed the constitution and was reconfirmed in office in 2000, again re-elected in 2006 for a six year period with 64.8% of the vote. Feeling in a strong position he proposed further reviews to Venezuela's constitution including indefinite reelection, special powers for the Executive, elimination of the Central Bank autonomy and the creation of the so called "popular power" as another branch of government, among a long list of reforms. But contrary to expectations Venezuelans rejected his proposals inflicting him his first defeat in 14 elections, in spite of his virtual control over all government resources plus the fact that he was cruising on oil at 90 US dollars a barrel. Venezuela is the world's fifth producer of oil, one of the main suppliers of United States and the economy of the country is almost entirely based on the wealth of hydrocarbons and other mineral resources. When Chavez first took office the barrel of oil was in the range of 10 US dollars, and has since early 2000 consistently risen. According to political analysts Luis Vicente León from Venezuela's most respected pollster Datanalisis, Chavez popularity has been steadily dropping since 2007, but his standing remains high "because he's the country's undisputed leader and there's no rival or competitor in sight, so far". But next November 2008 the Chavez regime faces the challenge of governor and mayor elections, and analysts believe the atomized opposition has a chance of winning in some of the main states. "Opposition begins from zero and the catch-all hegemonic "chavismo" can only loose ground", argues Leon. In 2004 Chavez won 20 of the country's 22 governorships in the midst of voters' apathy and an opposition in disarray after having lost a recall referendum on the Bolivarian revolution leader's mandate. Following last December's defeat and with November 2008 in mind, Chavez reorganized his cabinet trying to give it a more domestic affairs effectiveness under the motto of the three R: Review, Rectification and Re-launching of the Revolution. His goal: the recovery of the almost four million followers who abstained or voted against his constitutional reforms. But in the meantime he continues with his confrontational speech underlining that if the opposition manages to conquer the capital Caracas and the main states "we'll be faced with a civil war because they'll come after my head", he warns his electorate. The main opposition parties have agreed to present an only consensus candidate for every post and insist in promoting the fact that these must be the "best possible" to ensure voters they will be "efficient managers". "The December referendum defeat showed there's a gap between people's simple aspirations and the radical proposals of Chavez revolution; people have begun to demand solutions for every day challenges and fears such as rampant insecurity, food shortages, inflation and even corruption", argues Leon. "We're moving into a stage where the people want solutions, and the government remains completely incapable to address every day problems, while the president resorts to emotional, abstract and ideological speeches", added León. Besides in a country where certain corruption is tolerated, the degree to which it has extended among the so called "boli-bourgeois" (Bolivarian revolution bourgeois) and Chavez cronies, netting millions of the country's oil windfall billions, "has become an act of impudence and preposterously offensive". Venezuela currently has the highest inflation in the region, 22.5% in 2007 and has for months been faced with growing shortages of basic staples and other products including medicines and pharmaceuticals. The ministries of Interior and Justice admit that there's a weekly average of 140 homicides and kidnapping and private security companies have become the thriving industries of the country. "Unless Chavez accepts that these problems can't be solved through radicalization and conflict, he will begin to crumble much quicker. You can't rule a country with half the people consistently against you", concluded Leon.