MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Economists downgrade Brazil’s growth estimates for this year and 2012

The Real to US dollar exchange rate is expected to end 2011 at 1.80

Brazilian bank economists cut the country’s growth estimate for this year to below 3%, (2.97%) according to a last week survey by the Central bank of over one hundred institutions and which was released Monday.

Last week the Brazilian stats office revealed that Brazil’s GDP in the third quarter was flat and going down, following eight consecutive growth quarters.

However in spite of the poor third quarter showing in the nine months of 2011 the Brazilian economy expanded 3.2% and 2.7% in the last twelve months.

Both the government and the economists agree that the third quarter drop was a direct consequence from the restrictive measures adopted at the beginning of the year to cool inflation (which have since been lifted) and the international economic crisis which reduced demand for Brazilian goods.

The Brazilian government trusts a slight recovery during the fourth quarter should allow GDP to end 2011 with a 3.2% expansion (down from 3.8%) and next year should be in the range of 4% to 5%.

However the economists surveyed said that growth estimates for 2012 should be in the range of 3.48% to 3.4%, which is half the 7.5% of 2010, 25 year record.

Regarding 2011 inflation the survey shows economists believe it will reach 6.5% and next year’s 5.49%. In both cases the estimates are above the Central bank target of 4.5%.

The exchange rate this year will end at 1.79 to 1.80 Real to the US dollars and in 2012 at 1.75 Real to the dollar.

Trade surplus in 2011 will remain at the initial target of 28.7 billion dollars and between 17 and 17.5 billion dollars at the end of next year.

Direct foreign investment in Brazil this year should total 60 billion dollars and 54 billion by the end of 2012.