Dry weather, heat and lack of rain threaten Mercosur soybean crop
Mercosur soybean production is expected to fall 2.9% after dry weather and heat damaged crops in Brazil and Paraguay and as conditions deteriorate in Argentina, Hamburg-based industry researcher Oil World said.
Total output for Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia will slide to 132.7 million metric tons in 2011-12 from 136.7 million tons a year earlier, 4.3 million tons less than forecast in December, Oil World wrote in an e-mailed report.
Soybean futures rose 6.8% in Chicago trading in December, the oilseed’s best monthly performance since August, amid concern dry weather will curb soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina, the largest exporters behind the US
“Favorable rainfall would still result in a recovery of soybean and corn-crop prospects in Argentina,” Oil World wrote. “Maturation is well advanced in most Brazil and Paraguay, where the crops already suffered irreversible damage.”
The soybean crop in Brazil will probably drop to 71 million tons from 75.3 million tons in 2010-11, Oil World said, cutting its forecast by 1.8 million tons. Paraguay’s production will fall to 7 million tons from 8.37 million tons, the researcher said, lowering its outlook by 1.5 million tons.
“In some parts of Brazil the corn and soybean crops are almost mature, so that rainfall from now on will partly be too late and probably even detrimental for harvesting,” Oil World said. “The same is true for Paraguay.”
The researcher said Brazilian soybean production may turn out to be 1 million to 2 million tons below its forecast, while Paraguay’s harvest may also come in lower than its estimate.
Argentina’s soybean harvest is forecast to rise to 51 million tons from 49.4 million tons a year earlier, Oil World said, cutting its outlook by 1 million tons. The outlook requires “above-normal” rainfall soon, the researcher said.
“In Argentina rainfall in January and February would still be very beneficial,” Oil World said. “There are significant moisture deficits in most parts of Argentina and there is a high risk that the required rainfall does not arrive in time to prevent additional irreversible damage.”
Parts of Argentina and south Brazil were forecast to have dry and hot weather early this week, causing crop stress for corn and soybeans, AccuWeather Inc. said in a Dec. 30 report
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19 comments Feed
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Still, this is the southern hemisphere production cycle, which is out of phase with the northern production cycle, so there should be higher unit prices for smaller crops - assuming that the northern hemisphere US production has not resulted in vast silos of stored soya.
Bigger percentage change to the Uruguay import/export balance, unless some corrective (eg) import reduction ensues.
Smaller changes to Brasil,
and perhaps no impact on Argentina's - as long as it rains!
I'm glad for it, and i really hope it doesn't rain anymore, would love to see this country becoming a desert.
I can see the pain in the faces of most gauchitos here where i live which is a city located in a rural area.. We haven't had rains for a month.
Yhea there wouldnt be many in the World who would like to be you!!!!!
Yeah, i'm a damn good bastard and i'd love to make fun of them. ^^
New country?. I'm argentine just fyi. Gets your fact right next time.
If you lived in my city, you'd know what i'm talking about. They got what's coming to them and its well deserved.
Let me guess, you must be a gaucho just like them. Hey guess what Assh@t?. Deal with it.
Now go back to the church and pray to Gauchito Gil to bring you some rains.
The peso printing press will be running at full speed 30% inflation may look tame by this time next year.
By the 1st week in Feb everyone should have received their new gas, water and electricity rates. A 350% rise is nothing to sneeze at...let's see what happens then....
The only reason why they survive is because they ilegally employ people to work for them without paying insurance, retirements, etc.
Not to mention that they avoid taxes, i still get bills from the guy who lived in my house until last year and he owes not hundreds, but hundreds of thousands in taxes.
He was the president of the agropeary chamber in Bs As. Such an example.
The gauchos also stopped the country cutting all routes back in 2008, i remember most of them were trying to intimidate showing their weapons in camera. I also remember many places (including my city) ran out of supplies, food etc. It was catastrophic.
Need i go on?
In Chaco they don't even have drinking water and in Pampas 4/5th of the corn crop is lost. Hmm no water, no corn is that why Swift Frigo is closing and laying off 500 people or is it the economy is crashing? Maybe both?
Awww, looks like someone's feelings got hurt.
Wish should i starve?. I have everything i need unlike you..
Also, your insults doesn't mean anything here and it doesn't make you look any cooler, kid.
Not to mention that you are not even argentine to begin with.
Oh joy.. whatever next.....
That should do wonders for their economy and the inflation figures.
dont say that...It's expensive enough for me.
spending your time whinging when you should be focusing on whats happening in England with its mass social disorder and it's economic recession go get a life
you bunch of envious ill spirited parasites lol You guys dont even belong to Mercosur you miserable twats.
I'm pretty sure that most people posting live in SA/S. Atlantic, or at least have done so.
They have an interest and their own points of view.
I am one such person, with a strong desire to better the lot of this, my chosen continent. Unfortunately, I am no longer young and my scope is therefore limited.
I get the feeling that you are still young; the job falls to you. Do it to the best of your ability for the whole of your life.
The preliminary reports are showing 40% of the soy crop and 80% iof the corn are gone in the two largest farming provinces. Even the population is out of water so they are trucking it in!
The peso is at $4.70 in the gray mkt in BA today...
You're quite right, in this moment it is indeed really pathetic for a European to write something like #9. Do people really think that by writing that shit their own nations' horrific unemployment and public debt problems will go away?
www.online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120106-711033.html
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