MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Argentine 2011 car sales in domestic market set to establish a new record
Argentine auto sales rose 8.2% in January from a year earlier to 112,607 units, the car dealers’ association Acara said in an e-mailed report on Friday. January’s sales were 43.5% more than December’s, the report said. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesGee.... and the journal the economist (much like yankeeboy [I know the irony that someone from the USA speak of economic crisis is just *facepalm*]) has been predicting an Argentine economic market crash for 7 years now!!!
Feb 04th, 2012 - 06:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0My advice is whatever the IMF and the World Bank advice, do the exact opposite and you cannot go wrong.
1 Helber Galarga
Feb 04th, 2012 - 10:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0Have you even read this article because you have demonstrated a stupifying lack of understanding of what is going on in your own country?
What are you doing with your money (assuming you have some spare money) now that inflation is very near 30% (out of the mouth of Old Smooth Neck herself)?
That is why cars are flying out of the showrooms. It's called 'distress purchasing' because buyers are frightened of what will happen to the economy and their money if they do not buy something that will last and retain some value.
Unfortunately, this spree will come to a grinding halt (they always do) when the 'panic' money has gone. 'Cash for clunkers' in the USA and a similar scheme in the UK brought out scenes of euphoria in the car trade of both countries only to be follwed by months of poor sales to businesses only, all the private sales had been 'brought forward'.
But don't believe me, just wait a few months and you will see for yourself.
All I know mate is that the British journal the economist (like some loonies here) has been forecasting an economic crisis for the past not ONE or TWO or THREE YEARS, but for F*** SEVEN YEARS.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 01:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0How F**** wrong can you be to get it wrong for seven straight years????
*facepalm*
3. The forecasts have been wrong because, stupidly, the economists never thought CFK would be able to break the law! The assumed BCRA & Anses were protected under the constitution and could not be raided/confiscated. Boy were they wrong! What do you think your economy has been running on the last few years? Increased production?
Feb 04th, 2012 - 01:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All the cash is gone now so that is why EVERY single economic forecast is doom and gloom this year. Arg can't survive long with 3-4% growth AND 30% inflation.
Did you keep your Patacones from last time? You may need them again soon.
The forecasts have been wrong because, stupidly, the economists never thought CFK would be able to break the law! The assumed BCRA & Anses were protected under the constitution and could not be raided/confiscated. Boy were they wrong! What do you think your economy has been running on the last few years? Increased production?
Feb 04th, 2012 - 02:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0All the cash is gone now so that is why EVERY single economic forecast is doom and gloom this year. Arg can't survive long with 3-4% growth AND 30% inflation.
Did you keep your Patacones from last time? You may need them again soon
Still believing what bernanke and The wall street journal and the FT tells you???
Sure,during the military dictatorship.the Economist,WSJ,FT,were exultants about them...they were making a lot of profit...after all Wall street,evry time the USA government emits a TBOND,if you consider the whole cycle,the profit is close to 25%....Of course if they finance the imports and the USA governments goes into debt,plus the military expenditure is very good for WS...
Just try to understand what is behind what.
Still for this antiArgentines.you have to have enough income to buy cars....Noo body will buy cars if you are starving..
a mandatory % fee on U$ and EU$ will end the inflation and if you return this fee back to tax payers the economy will continue to grow despite inflation.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 03:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Christy and yankeeboy the soothsayers of Argentine doom.Argentina was certain to run out of money in january it was a done deal.But what happens government tax take is up 30% but pibes there is a real collapse going on you are right but its in Europe and Davidito is the one riding the buffalo not CFK.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 03:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Reality is Argentina will in 2012 grow by 4-6% but no doubt they will find a drout or a flood or Moyano or a volcanic erruption or something that will ensure the imminent collapse of Argentina.Poor Yankee his problem is Argentine women rejected him en masse he just cant hack it poor boy
6 Pirat-Hunter
Feb 04th, 2012 - 03:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So you are recomending a tax on peoples money Pratt-Junta? How much of a 'skim' off the top do the banks take on these sorts of transactions anyway?
Another of your stupid comments. What are you lot going to do when anybody with a brain in your country wakes up and gets their money 'Out of Dodge'?
It's fast becoming the Wild West of LatAm.
It's fast becoming the Wild West of LatAm.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 03:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Really cris? Well too bad for you I JUST LOVE IT!
7 O gara ”Christy and yankeeboy(Fred) the soothsayers of Argentine doom“
Feb 04th, 2012 - 03:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You missed ”Elaine”
#8 I don't think you read well I said tax euro'$ and US dollars not the yen or people witch is the largest markets in comparison. Last time I traveled to Cuba I payed 100% taxes on a bottle of rum and a box of cigars, why don't you people take the log out of your own eye before you try to point at the straw in someone elses eye.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 04:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Comment removed by the editor.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 04:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Oh no WSJ, do they hate Argentina too and spread lies?
Feb 04th, 2012 - 04:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The probability of entering a recession is now 70%, up 15 percentage points from November, according to the survey.
“These results indicate that if economic policy doesn't change, the deceleration in economic growth will deepen in the months ahead,” UTDT economist Martin Gonzalez Rozada said in a statement. “If this happens, the data point to the beginning of a recession in the first quarter of 2013.”
Fausto Spotorno, an economist at Orlando J Ferreres & Asociados, said this outlook is entirely reasonable.
“We're already seeing negative numbers in industrial activity, so this is very possible, even very probable,” Spotorno said. “A recession isn't inevitable, but we're seeing a sharp deceleration in economic activity.”
Spotorno expects the economy to grow about 2% or 3% in 2012, less than half that expected by the government.
Spotorno said recent measures prohibiting imports will notably affect economic activity by making it harder for manufacturers to get necessary inputs.
Di Tella said six of the variables it measures fell while the remaining four rose. The biggest declines came in financial markets, consumer confidence and the amount of square footage scheduled for construction.
Helber,
Feb 04th, 2012 - 06:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The system is exhausted. What many people in Argentina fail to grok at times is that no model is dateless. Economies always require needs to be tweaking and reform. The “Menem” model worked for a time, but was never reformed. The Kirchner model worked for a time, but has not been reformed.
What does not evolve dies. It's true in technology, sport, fashion, biology, and economics.
The models themselves are not necessarily wrong, if used correctly for the right amount of time. It is the mulish obstination of argentine politicians, that any imperfections are not because the policy is itself wrong, but becaue they didn't go far enough. It is also the egocentric tendencies that make them believe that any criticism of the policies is a rejection of not only the entire system, but of themselves.
If you are burning your fingers in hot water, the solution is not to char them with boiling water so you stop feeling anything. Perhaps you need to open the cold faucett.
Comment removed by the editor.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 06:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Tobias,
Feb 04th, 2012 - 10:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Might be the case but I believe that as long as Argentina continues to produce coveted commodities (soybean and other minerals (once a more demanding Mine Law is passed), the model will continue and yield profits for a majority.
I agree on your assessment of the Menem years and their failure to fine tune their model. And the same outcome could befall CFK if and when the world markets decrease their demand on commodities. However, I cannot see demand on commodities to decrease significantly enough for that to happen.
Si no te molestas que te pregunte, de qué parte de Argentina sos vos?
16. You are going to base your whole economy on the whim of weather? Good luck with that!
Feb 04th, 2012 - 11:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Commodities are also cyclical, you had 10 years of them going up so you should expect 10 years of them going down. Your Soy crop is going to be at least 10% below expectations and it is also 10% lower $/ yoy. How do you expect the economy to grow or even maintain itself with those KNOWN variables? It is your biggest tax revenue!!
yankeeboy,
Feb 04th, 2012 - 11:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0you earlier mentioned in this thread that “BCRA & Anses were protected under the constitution and could not be raided/confiscated”
1) How was each 'raided' and what was done, in your view, with the money that was 'confiscated'?
Comment removed by the editor.
Feb 04th, 2012 - 11:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 018, CFK has raided and continues to raid BCRA to pay U$ denominated interest payments, it is against the law and is why Redrado was ousted. http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=106594708
Feb 04th, 2012 - 11:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is also the reason ARG will most likely lose when the case goes to review at the US Supreme Court this summer.
All of the assets of Anses were nationalized, yet another PRIVATE company taken over by the CFK, Against the law but done by executive order “to protect” the assets. So now all the hard money assets are liquidated and replaced with worthless RG bonds and citizens pension deposits flow into general revenue funds with the Treasury. This is the only reason you have been able to maintain spending well past all of the economist's forecasts.
http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=106594708
Trouble is all the U$ (hard assets) have been liquidated out of system and is why they are Panicking and restricting imports. It is a mess and it is going to be really bad sooner than later.
Poor old fred the world is going to end tomorrow its a certainty the stars have.laid it down I can see it its doom doom doom doom doom doom doom doom for those horrible Argies Argies Argies Argies specially the Mujeres mujeres mujerea ohhhhhhhhhh the pain cant cope ohhhhhhh
Feb 05th, 2012 - 12:20 am - Link - Report abuse 0@ yankeeboy,
Feb 05th, 2012 - 12:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0I think you are oversimplifying. For instance, you claim:
“This is the only reason you have been able to maintain spending well past all of the economist's forecasts.”
I think it's much more complex than ^^! Or are we to believe then (as you seem to hint) that yearly and continuous balance of trade surpluses have had NO IMPACT in allowing the Gov't to adopt active social spending? Please *roll eyes*! Be more nuance in your assessments or risk being ignored!
Additionally, you state:
“aid BCRA to pay U$ denominated interest payments, ”
Are you referring to the instance that funds accrued as a result of balance of trade surpluses where tapped into to cancel Argentine foreign debt rather than borrow internationally to cancel the debt? If that is indeed what you are referring to, well, then I see no problems with that. In my view, Argentina should live within it's means and by that I mean nothing else than avoiding any internationally lending.
In case you don't know Argentina's history too well, allow me to remind you Argentina has historically borrowed internationally and that hasn't been a pleasant experience. Therefore, I applaud that particular instance.
Comment removed by the editor.
Feb 05th, 2012 - 03:07 am - Link - Report abuse 021 O gara
Feb 05th, 2012 - 10:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0Unless you can say something constructive against our views based on evidential fact I would keep quite.
Your post is making you look a complete imbecile like Malv the hahaha guy. I thought you were above that.
22. Of course your balance of trade has helped Arg recover. I never said it didn't. What is curious and you should have to wonder why if the economy was booming did they have to steal the Anses hard currency and the BCRA reserves?
Feb 05th, 2012 - 12:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are not “living within your means” far from it ! You had an 80 BILLION peso deficit this year and if not for the ANSES pension contributions and the expected U$6B payment from BCRA you would be forced to borrow internationally.
Why do you think they are drastically cutting back gov't expenses and limiting imports? Your balance of trade reversed last quarter 2011 and they are terrified that it will only be U$4.5B for the year 2012. At that rate they can no longer support the peso!
I would recommend a rain dance and I think the die is cast but all will be known in the next 4-6 weeks.
Of course your balance of trade has helped Arg recover. I never said it didn't. What is curious and you should have to wonder why if the economy was booming did they have to steal the Anses hard currency and the BCRA reserves?
Feb 05th, 2012 - 12:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are not “living within your means” far from it ! You had an 80 BILLION peso deficit this year and if not for the ANSES pension contributions and the expected U$6B payment from BCRA you would be forced to borrow internationally.
Why do you think they are drastically cutting back gov't expenses and limiting imports? Your balance of trade reversed last quarter 2011 and they are terrified that it will only be U$4.5B for the year 2012.
Well...The trade imbalance is because the overvalued peso...The fact thet Argentina has no capital markets and is working more on a cash basis.
However that is not the end of the world...USA,uk,they just go on borrowing.It is a pay latter scheme..Still you have to pay back.
Sorry,yankee..I discuss this in a more profound way that here with other people and unfortunately for me,(since I did not vote for CFK),the sign are good for her.....
uk in relalityty is finished...and USA well is in a delicate situation
26. It is astounding to me that you think an ancient country is finished because it is in a brief recession. The British are hard working, law abiding, well educated and have a huge industrious economy. They are simply going through a brief down cycle after a huge and lengthily up cycle. They have the history of being a world power and a rich country FOR 500+ YEARS! Don't you think they can survive a 10 year recession?
Feb 05th, 2012 - 01:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0So how do you come to to the conclusion they are finished? Please be so kind as to elaborate I would love to hear the logic to come to that conclusion.
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Feb 05th, 2012 - 04:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You did not answer my questions I posted yankeeboy, but, alas, I am used to it...
Feb 05th, 2012 - 08:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0anyways, what exactly are you saying will occur in 4-6 weeks. Spell it out and quit all the nonsense!
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Feb 05th, 2012 - 10:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Christy when you and fred contradict the realities I have posted and argue properly I will continue to be the 'imbecile'.fred and yourself have.predicted for the past number of years the imminent demise of ghe Argentine economy but Argentina has grown very quickly and continues to grow quickly.I have posted the stats on numerous occasions and neither of you ARE unable to contradict the FACTS.poor old fred keeos talking about deficits when everyone knows the Argentine state is reducing its debt while the city goes ever deeper in hock
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Feb 06th, 2012 - 04:09 am - Link - Report abuse 0So yankeeboy...
Feb 06th, 2012 - 04:42 am - Link - Report abuse 0Did you cut and run?
what exactly are you saying will occur in 4-6 weeks?
Spell it out and quit all the nonsense!
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Feb 06th, 2012 - 04:52 am - Link - Report abuse 031 O gara
Feb 06th, 2012 - 10:48 am - Link - Report abuse 0Just look at the trade deficit with Brasil for a start :o)
PS Use the figures from Brasil to get the TRUE data.
33. By 4-6 weeks everyone should know what the Soy crop looks like. If the estimates are accurate all Hades is going to break out.
Feb 06th, 2012 - 03:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0BTW I heard a rumor the peso devaluation may be 10-14/U$ not the $6 I have been estimating. That would be incredible if that happens! What would that do to inflation 100%, 200% yoy? I think the sky would be the limit.
Anything else you need me to spell out?
36 yankeeboy
Feb 06th, 2012 - 06:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Ogaga is fast losing his grasp on reality, and this proves it:
Ogaga tells his mate Murphy that he had a threesome with twins at the weekend. Murphy asks him '' how'd you tell them apart then?''
That was easy Ogaga said.
Julie had big tits and blonde hair
and John had a moustache!
:o)
36 ahh Fred the end has been posponed for a month im off on the piss i thought we were all doomed in January now its March.Well thank God for small mercies.
Feb 07th, 2012 - 12:00 am - Link - Report abuse 0so Christy Fred proves that I have lost it by the World sorry Argentina not going to end until March.
What can we say Christy but please tell us what were you on for the weekend it just has to be the greatest stuff ever.
BTW christy in a moment of lucidity did Fred tell you how bad were all the rejections from all the lovely Argentine ladies
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