Argentina February economic activity expands 5.2%, but surprises ahead for industry
Argentina's economy grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in February according to the country’s stats office Indec monthly economic activity report Emae, reflecting good performances in construction and manufacturing. But prospects for the industrial sector could have some surprises.
The Emae indicator rose 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms from January, Indec added.
The market had expected the economy to expand 4.5% on the year, according to the median estimate of more than 50 banks, economic research firms and universities surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina.
The economy grew 8.9% in 2011, thanks to a surge in government spending in the run-up to October's elections, loose monetary policy and consumers spending on durable goods like cars.
The economy is expected to grow at a slower pace this year due in part to foreign exchange and import controls. The central bank's latest estimate puts GDP growth at 6% this year, though many private-sector forecasters are much less bullish.
Likewise industrial production grew less than expected in March, likely due to import restrictions and softer exports. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial output rose 1.8% from March 2011, and increased 1.9% from February, reported Indec.
The government was expected to report that manufacturing activity increased 2.4% on the year, according to the median estimate surveyed by the Central bank.
Recent economic data painted a mixed picture of industrial activity in March. Auto production fell 4% on the year to 67.677 vehicles, but rebounded almost 25% from February. Raw-steel output increased 5.4% on the year and was up 10.4% from February at 471.000 metric tons.
Looking ahead Argentine industry faces several challenges: Brazil that is trying to boost its flattened economy (Argentina ships half its car production to its Mercosur main partner); double digit salary increases for the heavily unionized workforce; inflation in the range of 25% in spite of the official 9.8% from Indec and shortage of machinery, parts and components because of the government’s strict restrictions on all imports with the purpose of pruning the country’s purchases abroad.
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How can such a sharp turn of events occur in such a short time??? There is something amiss here.
At the same time the British economy is screwed with unprecedented levels of debt and with no way out.
Figures are often misleading and rarely tell the real story. Shooting star effect? I don't know.
@2
I don't believe the British were mentioned in this article.
£7.oo. The going rate for an Argentinian vote.
@2 INDEC figures. Falsified, manipulated lies.
@8 Yep, that's true. Can't have anyone undermining “the big lie”.
... then he writes a little comment about the UK, regardless of the topic, just to remind us of his envy.
I hate to ruin your “Shadenfreude” party but.................
Any eventual commercial sanctions from the EU against Argentinean exports will, even in the WORST CASE SCENARIO not be implemented earlier than 3 to 4 years from now.
That's the normal “time horizont” in the EU for complying with all the bureaucratic and legal requirements for the implementations of such sanctions.
If you can’t wait that long, I humbly suggest that you find another story to satisfy your low instincts ;-)
New development to water down your Shadenfreude party even further…….
Today, the 23/04/12, at noon, in Luxembourg, at a meeting of EEC Foreign Ministers, Mr. José Manuel García-Margallo, Spain’s Foreign Minister, said that Spain would stop all retaliatory measures against Argentina if Repsol gets an ”Adecuate” compensation” …..............
Meanwhile a veritable “stampede” of ex directors and other high functionaries from Repsol is abandoning Argentina in a hurry.
Many of their kids didn’t even say goodbye to their comrades at school…..
Seems to be, that the swift take over of Repsol’s offices by the Argentinean authorities really took them by surprise.
They didn’t have the time to remove their Double Accounting Books !!!
Poor inocent Multinational Oil Company....................
If I were a Repsol exec I wouldn't have waited this long, next thing you know the police will enter their house without a warrant...oh wait that happened yesterday. The only law in RGland is CFK and minions. Dictatorship at its best!!
Let's see...stagflation then depreciation..hyper inflation...depression.
Already in stage 1...
Considering the KFC government does not seem to always play fair, I would pull out my expat executives as well.
Did you read the WSJ article today? It is eye opening! online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303592404577359432441570286.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
Truthfully Think, I'm looking forward to seeing another drama on the stage about your country. They say this woman is incredible: www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/theater/elena-roger-brings-native-touch-to-broadway-evita.html?pagewanted=all
Your down turn will not place your country into an economic depression and sanctions will only be felt marginally. But attracting investment capital, other than from China, will be dismal and if your currency goes into a free-fall, you will feel pain. Something I don't really wish to happen, but then again I won't feel sorry for your nation either.
They are starting the most predictable financial crisis and I don't see any way out of if while CFK is ruling.
Hillary Clinton, “Don't you mean, resolution.”
Ban Ki Moon, “I know what I mean!”
Argentina will be able to market their grains, petroleum and other commodities without any hindrance, but some finished goods will feel the increasing pain in several markets. Malbec wine will suffer in Europe and North America. Granted this is a miniscule part of the argentine economy, but not the automobile assembly industry, which will be sanctioned in some markets as well.
A best case scenario for my Andean brothers would be for China to enter with an enormous stake. They have the ability and it would be the solution, but then again it would require Argentina to crawl in bed with consequences they might not like.
(From an earlier post of mine) You can legally steal a company without getting your hands dirty... shareholders own the liabilities as well as the assets of the company. We know CFK and her husband needed to cover up all the under the table corruption involving YPF, but really if they had wanted to legally take total control without world wide outrage and sanctions they should have just bleed the company dry with increased taxes, regulations, and mandates.
High taxes would enable KFC's government to take the profit without having to contribute capital or own liabilities. Stronger strict new regulations w
Give it 12 months at most before a default even larger than ever before, we all know they are incapable of dealing with reality on any issue. The Falklands (there are no Malvinas) is a clear example of that.
INDEC - what a disgraceful organisation.
I disagree about whether Las Malvinas exist or not. Never never land existed and so did Shangri- La ... in certain idealistic minds...
The dye is set as I have said before its:
Stagflation...devaluation...hyper inflation...depression...I don't see any course other than the one they are on...
Would you please tell me how do you expect any serious response when your information about Argentinean current affairs, politics history is so 100% wrong?
First time I noticed you, was when you were telling in here that it was the wife of Vice-president Boudou that had denounced him…….
(In face of overwhelming evidence, you backtracked on that later)
Now, you say:
““We all thought that her husband committed suicide when he defaulted on Argentina's sovereign debt………..””
I say:
You (all) are aware that Argentina defaulted; thats always something.
But..; are you (all) aware that Argentina defaulted during the end of 2001 and the beginning of 2002?
And are you (all) aware that Nestor Kirchner assumed the presidency of Argentina in May of 2003.
Are you (all) may be quick enough to be aware that that means that Nestor Kirchner assumed the presidency of Argentina nearly 2 (two) years after the Argentinean default?
But, at least you are good fun for talking un-seriously about size of feet, wine, women and other inocuous platitudes......
Boudou: I explained that I had earlier read an erroneous report and immediately corrected myself the same day.
Default: The actual economic crisis perhaps began in 2000/2001 and Argentina defaulted on part of its external debt at the beginning of 2002. Néstor Kirchner took office as the new president on May 2003 so I again admit that I was wrong.
Kirchner was an angel and did everything possible to honestly re-pay all the debtors that ended up with near worthless Argentine bonds. Does that make it easier to sleep at night.
I guess for accuracy I could have posted that the Kirchners belong to the fraternal political mafia of Argentina that a decade ago successfully swindled from investors over 100 billion dollars.
Restating my erroneous statement: “We all thought that her husband committed suicide when he allowed the treasury to continue defaulting on Argentina's sovereign debt………..”
Did you see the WSJ and NYT articles?
I did...
Nothing new on them...
Same old, same old... since 2001...
Not even anything about feet, wine or women ...
How small are her feets?
Or better yet, how big are her teets.... ;-)
You'd be at or near the truth then.
Oh, an Argie girl with feet tinier than a Chilean girl? What's this world coming to! Obviously, she has no relation to me or my girl cousin.
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