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Montevideo, March 28th 2024 - 14:14 UTC

 

 

Argentina moving closer to recession according to latest indicators

Wednesday, June 6th 2012 - 23:35 UTC
Full article 52 comments

Strong symptoms of a slowdown of the Argentine economy, possibly leading to recession, have been confirmed by Torcuato Di Tella University's, UTDT, closely watched leading indicators. Read full article

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  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    What Mercopress fails to context is that the EU has plunged back into recession, the USA has stalled to 0 growth, Brazil has been in recession, China is in its largest slowdown in 15 years, etc.

    At some point, the ineptitude of growth of the rest of the world was going to be exported here.

    Jun 06th, 2012 - 11:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Yeah but only Argentina and Venezuela has 30% inflation and recession. STAGFLATION which will make your stupid Prez print more Pesos which will lead to hyper inflation which will lead to mass unemployment and finally depression.
    The road is clearly mapped as I have been saying for as long as I have been posting here.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    What happened to the 30 percent growth?
    The US grows, slowly but grows but you cannot expect the largest economy in the world to grow double digits and compare to smaller economies.
    Just like when used to compare 100 million dollars stores growing 10 pcr per year (10 million) vs 25 million dollar stores growing 30 percent (7.5 mill)... The percent makes it look bigger... I did too when I had to present my pnl to my svp I would use even basis points to make the growth look bigger and would use regular pct to show losses

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 01:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Ernie4001

    Get ready to see inflation plus recession sooner than later. I guess CFK already is preparing the chopper.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 02:28 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • GreekYoghurt

    Furked economy is furked.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 04:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • brit abroad

    Haha
    Americanlight doesnt know shit! Hehe

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 05:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Xect

    I think the meaningful point here isn't the fact Argentina is in recession but its ability to cope with recession.

    The UK has suffered a very large recession due to the chaos in the EU and USA and has coped brilliantly through multiple recessions over the past few years. The UK is still the place where foreign investors are storing money in what is classically called a 'safe harbor'

    Now Argentina is in a very unfortunate position whereby it goes into recession with over 30% inflation, almost zero reserves (relatively speaking) and zero access to international funding with many countries now deciding to block its numerous additional request for more loans from the WCB.

    Personally if I was in a position of power I'd support loans/funding to Argentina from the WCB given the vast majority of Argentine's (like Tobias) are decent folk and shouldn't suffer because of the crazy CFK and retarded Timmermuppet.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 05:46 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • The Chilean perspective

    2 yankeeboy...........
    You hit the nail right on the head. Economically speaking the worst possible place to be is stagflation. You can't stimulate growth through more spending as you will risk hyperinflation, but no doubt they will .
    It seems as everything is lining up for a perfect storm...
    Brazil, their only substantial client for manufactured goods is restructuring and are not too keen to reward the sneaky Argentines. Unless Argentina can bring
    inflation under control and at the same time increase productivity they are doomed.
    You can't run a one horse race with regards to an export policy, they must look elsewhere outside mercosur.
    On the other hand I like the creative ways the CFK admin is sandbagging against a possible run on the Peso. The Pesification scam may even work for the initial run, but like with all things you cannot go against the law of gravity and as much as CFK may polish this turd, the final result is inevitable.
    Cheers.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 05:48 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I think the tell tale sign is that Gov't revenues are not keeping up with the inflation. I would bet inflation is around 30-35% right now and gov't revenues only went up 20% yoy.
    This is catastrophic.
    It means recession is already firmly in place (they went in Nov11) and it is a bad one!
    Print Print Print will be the solution. No on in the current gov't understands economics or business and will take short term solutions to “fix” structural problems.
    Brr

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 09:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Xect I've been to Argentina enough to know most of the people are good people. However it is now the people that will repay, or in this case, default on the loans.
    Argentina created it's own business profile as a country that will default on it's loans, expropiate private entities, close it's imports and heavily tax them(but they expect to be able to export) and for the most part, the leaders of the developed world know the level of cooruption in the CFK administration, not to mention how unprofessional she is.
    No one in their right mind would loan Argentina money or partner with YFP as they so desparately need for the 1,000 nes weels next year(hahahahaha....right).
    Argentina should llook at two roads.......Brasil......while experiencing a downtuen will survive because of freer markets, or Venezula.....a socialized mess. Even with all her oil she cannot make it, that speaks a lot about her road traveled. But of course CFK will take the path Hugo paved because it will better line her Swiss bank account that she fails to report. I really feel for the good p[eople of Argentina....they need to take to the streets and rid Argentina of Peronists. Socialism does not work.....ask China, USSR and all of Eastern Europe.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    10. What makes me crazy is when people say“ most of the people are good people” and therefore you are blaming the “gov't” for the destruction of their country and the inability of “the people” to do anything about it.
    I wholeheartedly reject that premise.
    It is THE PEOPLE who keep electing criminals into the gov't. It is their own fault and they need to live with the consequences. The RG society is in its very being lazy and corrupt, oh yes, there are a few who aren't of course there are 40MM people but in general they like the corruption, they want the easy way out. They want to steal instead of innovate or be productive.
    The people made this mess they need to take action or become Valenzuela or Zimbabwe. It is not like this path is not clear. They're on the road to ruin and if they want to get off that road they need to buckle down and do it instead of whining about it and blaming others!

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • mastershakejb

    Winter is coming, and Argentina already used most of its reserves.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    11 yankeeboy (#)
    Jun 07th, 2012 - 12:27 pm

    You're certainly right about it being THE PEOPLE who keep electing criminals into government. It's our own fault and we DO live with the consequences, every single time we elect a peronist government of which ever colour, leftist, rightist, centre/left, centre/right. They are all the same, into power with promises to the masses of the good life which never come true and finally they leave with their ill-gotten gains and the cycle starts again.
    The problem isn't THE PEOPLE, it is the educational system. It was once, until the early thirties one of the best in SA, now it is designed to produce unproductive people who depend on subsidies and other government hand-outs.
    THE PEOPLE honestly (and I repeat HONESTLY) believe that the peronists are the gospel according to Evita, because they've been brainwashed to believe it just the same as they've been brainwashed to believe that the “Malvinas son Argeninas” - THE PEOPLE believe the “big lie”.
    So you won't be seeing a revival of 1900 Argentina for a long, long time.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 01:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ArmitageShanks

    @8 Yankeeboy

    Print print print is right. They have produced a new 2 peso coin, to get rid of the overused 2 peso note. They are looking to replace the 5 peso note with a new note with the face of 'Evita' (sadly being used by her majesty CFK to sway popular votes) to inject many more notes into the economy. They should be focusing on creating a 200 or 500 peso note which is very much needed. These may also come, again a thin veil to print more money, ironically what the Fed in the US does when there are debt issues.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 01:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    14. Arg has serious cash flow problems, very little U$ reserves and no access to the Int'l bond market. The provinces are out of $, they can't even pay salaries or suppliers. If the CFK doesn't give them $ they will be forced to print Patacones to pay their bills. If she does give them $ she will have to print HUGE amounts of currency with no reserve backing. This will quickly lead to hyperinflation. Arg is already running somewhere around 30-35% yearly inflation and with the huge downturn in car sales, consumer sales, food sales and exports there will be little tax revenue the remaining year. They're in a mess and there is no way out.
    I can't wait to see where this leads. The Ks actions are textbook on how to destroy an economy.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 01:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brit Bob

    From the Nasdaq 7.6.12

    CFK has resorted to blocking imports and rationing foreign currency Argentines can purchase to make sure enough dollars are in hand at the Central Bank to pay government creditors. Those measures sent a chill through the economy as factories face shortages and the heavy dollarized real estate market grinds to a halt for the want of greenbacks.'

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 03:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    #11 Yankeeboy have you ever been to Argentina? I have lots of times. If there ever was a case to have elections monitored, Argentina screams for election monitoring. I have yet to meet an Argentine that have voted for a Peronists. It reminds me of where I lie in the USA, Massachusetts when Kennedy was alive. Everyone in Massachusetts hated that senator, no one ever seemed to vote him in, yet he was in office for 45 years. There is another protest tonight in Recoletta (neighborhood in Buenos AIres) against the government. They been having protests regualrly, yet the TV never reports them.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 03:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    http://news.yahoo.com/miami-police-warn-drug-grisly-attack-055505712.html

    Zombie panic continues in the USA... good times, good times.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 04:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    thats old's news troll

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 04:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    I'm just stressing how in the most intelligent nation on Earth (according to yankeeboy, I would be a retard there), they believe in Zombies to the point the government had to make an actual and real public release to calm the population down. “There is no evidence of a Zombie epidemic currently in the US”... ROFTL. Brainsurgeons huh... anyway.

    http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1479814-tres-arroyos-cambio-futbol-por-snowboard

    Those suffering argies in that picture...

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 05:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    No educated American mind believes that America is the smartest nation on earth.....However it is the freeiest and greatest nation to achieve success or find opportunities for most anything. Though most of the world hates US because of our influence. There is a saying.....Lead, follow or get the hell out of the way. We happen to lead...no one likes it in the rest of the world.....but that's a undeniable fact.
    Here is a clip of Portenos trying to take Argentina back.......it's a start......I lend them my whole hearted support.

    http://vimeo.com/43294604

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 05:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Captain, I lived in Arg for many years after the last crash. I moved back when our neighbor's kid was kidnapped and the houses in the neighborhood were having commando assaults on them at night. Holding the pole hostage when the house was being ransacked. The security got out of control and so did the inflation. I knew it was going to collapse I just didn't know when. I was lucky I got out when I did.

    It would be great if the elections were monitored but it will never happen.
    I was just eating with a friend who works for a Inter governmental bank and they have put Arg on a watch list for an imminent crash and the USA has asked that all payments be stopped.

    30% increase for truckers and a nationwide strike... she is losing her grip I see.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 06:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Max

    The occasional recessions are very normal in the nature of Econ System.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 06:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • EnginnerAbroad

    @11 and 13

    The problem is that the Peronist government here has always been intrested in populrist decisions in order to continue sustain their own power base and do not care how much they ruin the country. The Peronists are neither right wing nor left wing they have raised themselves to a status in which Peronisum is Argentina and to challenge that is to be unpatriotic and anti your country. This is reinforced in the schools here in which dodgy suedohistory is used to indtronate the masses. The peronist government has always pumped huge sums of money (in many cases money it just does not have) into populor socilist programmes this keeps the lower classes of argentine society relient on the government handouts therefore making them guaranteed peronist voters for life. However the peronists are not keen on creating jobs and strengthening the economy to the point where they lift these people out of povery and give them the power to question their officials. Peronism is not a government or a political party it is a demigogery designed to keep the majority of Argentinians powerless whilst there government rapes the treasury for their own means. I can assure you there are people here who challenege the peronists and are sick of their tricks. unfortuntly these are those who work and work hard which is a minority here.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 07:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Max

    The persons who never saw Argentina in their lifes comment here.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 07:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • EnginnerAbroad

    Funny Max because I live and work in San Juan, Argentina.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 07:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Leiard

    The Argentinians who have never left Argentina also comment here !

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 07:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    Let's say “goodbye” Argentina
    We will not miss you
    It won't be easy, we'll think it strange
    When you've disappeared
    And people are free.

    You won't believe me
    All you will see is a girl you once knew
    Although she's botoxed up to the nines
    At sixes and seven pesos with you

    I had to let it happen, I had to change
    Couldn't stay all my life in argentina
    Looking out of the window, staying out of the sun

    So I chose money, yours
    Running around, trying everything new
    But nothing impressed me at all
    I never expected it to

    Don't cry for me Argentina
    The truth is I couldn't wait to leave you
    All through my wild days
    My mad existence
    I kept my promise
    Just keep your distance

    And as for fortune, and as for fame
    Thank you for all of them
    Though it seemed to the world they were all I desired

    They are share certificates
    They are not the solutions they promised to be
    The answer was here all the time
    I screw you and hope you'll screw me

    Don't cry for me Argentina

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 08:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    @28

    That would be REALLY funny: if it wasn't so true. :o)

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 08:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    EnginnerAbroad #24 You could not be more correct in you assessment of Argentina. Every time I have been there that is what I thought of the country. Buenos Aires my be the exection. However, have you seen theose ramshackled barrios of houses they allow squaters to live in becasue they can get the votes to retian their power. Peronism is a power philosophy and not a political philosophy.
    I think the Argentines here think that AMericans or others have never been to there country. I am more inclined to believe that they themselves have not traveled to they free, open countries that they comment on and hate.
    Argentina's leadership needs to be removed to change the way that there society thinks. Fortunately for all the Argentines I know and love, they are hard working people. Perhaps one day they will otherthrow Peronsim. Another protest in Recoletta tonight........and another not covered on the television news for fear it will spread.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 09:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @31 You are correct that a lot of Argentines have not travelled - because of economic reasons but also because they cannot go just anywhere on an Argentine passport. You know the saying, 'travel broadens the mind', well many Argentines have a very inward view of the world, how their country is perceived and a very skewed idea of life outside of Argentina.

    It is interesting that the Argentines I know that have travelled tend to dislike CFKC's government and understand that their country could be so much better if allowed to develop.

    Jun 07th, 2012 - 09:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    http://tn.com.ar/sociedad/00098645/otra-noche-con-algunos-cacerolazos-en-la-ciudad

    This is exactly how the last collapse started and when their Prez had to escape via helicopter. A little blood in the streets and it is all over for CFK...
    I wonder if her Doc has increased her meds? I bet they're not trapped in customs like the Cancer HIV or Diabetes meds are...

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 12:11 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    I agree and the Argentines I know are also traveled, hard workers. My GF is Argentine and she like many of my other Argentines loath CFK and Peronism. They are quite aware of the worlds perception of them. And even more so they are very aware of things they cannot purchase anymore because of CFK's rediculously closed trade markets. In the late 19th century and early 20th, they world a world leader. Now they are not even a follower but a mere country that falls out of everyone elses way. The Peronists are power mongers and care NOTHING for their people or country. If they did they would be trying to decrease the ranks of poverty and people on government handouts. But in doing so, they would lose people dependant on the government.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 12:19 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    Yankeeboy,

    Did you see that Renault has let 2000 workers go from their Cordoba factory. Poor buggers. Looks like the beginning of the end.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 01:22 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • mastershakejb

    I spent 2 months in Argentina, just two months ago, and am now in Chile. The difference is night and day. One is CLEARLY failing, its plain to see in everything in Argentina, a state of deterioration, from buildings, to infrastructure, to currency, business, politics, policing, regulation, tax, everything. Chile is basically the exact opposite.
    Chile #1, Uruguay #2 in latam, and the rest in latam? basically not even worth mentioning, cause they're in constant boom bust cycles, spinning wheels in the mud.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 04:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    34 Simon68

    As we have said, what else can you expect from the nonsense that passes for 'ecomomic policy' with The Mad Bitch of Argentina.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 10:15 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • EnginnerAbroad

    @35 Competly agree with you. I have spent time in Santiago on buisness and am there quite often. The difference is astonishing and it only took me 1/2 hr in Los Condes to realise that why one country has a thriving economy being supported with huge investment from the foreign investors the other has spiralling inflation. So what is the difference, after all both countries suffered at the hands of a military Junta in their history, both are former colonies of Spain and fought for their independence. For me the reason is that Chile respects its citizens and makes the hard descisons that governments need to in order to ensure the long term stability of their country whilst the other only cares for increasing its power base and taking what it can for itself. It is a broken system and needs chnage quickly if Argentina is going to survive. Wish I was in BsAs for the protest but unfortuantly the people are more udner the thumb and nightmare of the Kirchniner royalty out here in the provines,

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 11:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I brought an RG friend to Chile a few years ago and he was shocked to see people lining up to pay their taxes. The gov't had locations all over the city for people to easily pay them. That is the difference between an honorable people and....Argentina.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 12:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • EnginnerAbroad

    In the latest poll of working hours Chile also came 1st or 2nd. Argetnina wasnt on the top 20

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 01:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    I can't imagine that paying or not paying your taxes honorable. In the USA no one wants to pay taxes. Unfortunately the only ones that get away with that are the wealthy. The working class pays the most, reluctly and forcibly.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 04:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    40. That is not true at all and it is the exact opposite almost 40% of the USA populations pays NOTHING and the “rich” pay everything. You are a Progressive loser...get a job.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 05:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Yankee Boy No idea where you live, but have you always made a point in a debate with an insult rather than facts? You label someone something and know nothing of them? I am far from rich, but as a financial manager, my income exceeds 100k and I get killed between federal, state and local and sales taxes.
    Whats disturbing about this blog, like American politics is thats insults and sounds trumps factual debate.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 06:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • v for victory

    Take Action!!

    Stop British taxpayers’ money supporting World Bank loans to Argentina (outstanding 16.2 BILLION). The United States has already indicated that they will veto any new handouts to Argentina.

    A goverment e-petion has been setup at www.StopFundingArgentina.org

    Would recommend everyone to sign it.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 06:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Britishbulldog

    Stop all funding to this corrupt country called Argentina bring down this corrupt country and all who govern Argentina.
    www.StopFundingArgentina.org

    Anyone reading this outside of Argentina sign THE FORM NOW.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 07:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    All those in love with labels and insults. It's is actually 47% of total Americans (nt wokring Americans) that do not pay FEDERAL taxes. That number is skewed due to the estimataed 20 million illegal immigrants working in the USA that American businesses hire and exploit and are never penalized for hiring them.
    The following breaks down the taxpayers just for you yankee. I'm suspecting you aare English.
    Group's % Group's % Group's
    Share of Share of Avg. Tax
    Total AGI Total Taxes Rate (%)

    All 100 100 12.24
    Taxpayers
    Top 1% 20 38.02 23,27
    Top 5% 34.73 58.72 20.7
    Top 10% 45.77 69.94 18.71
    Top 25% 67.38 86.34 15.68
    Top 50% 87.25 97.3 13.65
    Bottom 50% 12.75 2.7 * 2.59

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 07:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    45 Captain Poppy

    If you must cut and paste, please use a brain, and reformat the thing so others can read it correctly.

    Jun 08th, 2012 - 10:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    Chris R if you real the need to insult, pull your head out of your asshole first. I can tell you feel you are part of a cerebral think tank here. In USA websites, one does not have to reformat to COPY and paste.

    Jun 09th, 2012 - 03:04 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #1 Well put, the rest of the world may be dragging Argentina down but as of now its still outperforming the US and Europe etc

    #11 “Socialism does not work.....ask China”

    I think they'd say it does! Thats still the official line, and more importantly the weight of nationalised industry in the Chinese economy has proven an advantage since the 2008 crisis

    Jun 13th, 2012 - 02:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    China may take an offical stance that they are socialist, but I laugh at that notion. China's millionaires are up almost 16% this year to 1.5 million households. Not to mention the exploding growth of their middle class. I may be wrong, but from I recall in my school days, socialism does not create midle class nor millionaires.

    Jun 13th, 2012 - 04:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    47 Captain Poppy

    But you are NOT on a USA website!

    So arsehole yourself, you numbnut, and reformat it if you want it read.

    Jun 13th, 2012 - 05:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ArmitageShanks

    @45

    *It's is actually 47% of total _North_ Americans.

    I presume your figure are related to North America, including Canada. Or are you including the continent of America?

    Jun 13th, 2012 - 06:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Captain Poppy

    #51
    That was just for the United States. I really do not have access to to Canadian and Mexican data. Those figures were straight out of the Internal Revenue Service files. Our revenue collectors here in the USA.

    Jun 13th, 2012 - 06:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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