Cristina Fernandez support eroding but no rivals on sight to challenge her
The positive image of Argentine president Cristina Fernandez has dropped 25 points and now stands at 40% after having reached 65% when her re-election last October according to an opinion poll from consultants Management & Fit.
“The approval and performance of the president and her image have been falling and have now reached a point, in the national poll, which stands at a floor of 40%. If we compare it with the 65% of her moment of victory, the loss is significant”, said Mariel Fornoni head of the Buenos Aires consultants.
An interesting confirmation from the poll is the strong loss of positive image of CFK in the province of Buenos Aires, while Governor Daniel Scioli has reached one of his best levels, added Fornori.
“The national government performance in the province of Buenos Aires has a 44% approval index but disapproval stands at 49%. It is the second month running that disapproval is higher than approval”.
While this happens to CFK, Governor Scioli approval stands at 48% and disapproval at 42%, even when his support has also dropped from the 68% of last October.
“However the differences are even greater referred to the images of the two leaders. The president in the province of Buenos Aires has a positive image of 41% and 33% negative, while Scioli’s ratings stand at 48% and 13%. The difference is that Scioli does not have a hardcore resistance such is the case with Cristina Fernandez or the mayor of Buenos Aires City, Mauricio Macri”, explained Fornori.
However the public opinion consultants point out that the current percentages are “volatile” and recalled that when the government of Cristina Fernandez had a positive image of 30 in October 2010, a week later following the death of her husband Nestor Kirchner it ballooned to 70%.
Fornori concludes saying that what is perceivable since March is the clear change in the “people’s mood”, with “far more people believing things are going to get worse in coming months before they begin to improve”.
Likewise Argentine public opinion “does not see in the opposition arch anyone capable of solving problems”.
The province of Buenos Aires is Argentina’s largest electoral circumscription and history shows that whoever wins there takes the main prize at Casa Rosada.
Governor Scioli, who belongs to the ruling coalition a few weeks ago committed a serious miscalculation when he publicly admitted he is a presidential hopeful for 2015, but will always keep to whatever President Cristina Fernandez decides.
Although by 2015 CFK will have completed two consecutive four year mandates, and can’t be re-re-elected, some ultras want her to reform the constitution and open such an option.
So the wrath of the Executive has fallen upon Scioli making him beg, virtually on his knees, for the federal funds to pay salaries and was even lectured in public why he should become a good administrator, when the province of Buenos Aires is the country’s richest and largest tax contributor to the Treasury.
Furthermore the dominant CFK will not tolerate a potential successor, (unless she picks him/her) because of her character and the lame-duck syndrome.
Conservative Mauricio Macri could represent in 2015 a good breeze of fresh air after twelve years of the Kirchner couple, but he has strong resistance among some groups from the hegemonic Peronist movement which has dominated Argentine politics since 1945.
The central government is also giving him a rough time by demanding for example, that the city takes over the transport system, but without the subsidies cheque.
Likewise he will no have to pay a toll for dumping the city’s garbage in the province of Buenos Aires.