Wednesday, October 31st 2012 - 04:44 UTC

S&P lowers Argentina’s rating, as credit-default insurance soars to highest in the world

Argentina’s credit rating was cut one level by Standard & Poor’s, which referred to a US appeals court ruling that prevents the country from honouring its debt without also paying holders of its defaulted bonds.

The rating reflects Argentina’s an increase in liabilities and the government’s debt service

S&P lowered the country’s rating to B- from B, which is six levels below investment grade and in line with that of Jamaica, Pakistan and Belarus, according to an e-mailed statement on Tuesday.

The New York Court of Appeals said Oct. 26 that Argentina can’t make payments on restructured sovereign debt while refusing to pay holders of its defaulted notes because doing so would discriminate against bondholders.

“The downgrade of Argentina’s unsolicited rating reflects our opinion that the government may face increasing risks in the management of its debt after the U.S. appeals court ruling,” S&P said in the statement. “The decision may effectively increase Argentina’s liabilities and the government’s debt service.”

The decision may help creditors including hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. collect 1.4 billion dollars on defaulted debt. The perceived risk Argentina will renege on creditors is now the highest of any government in the world on speculation the administration of President Cristina Kirchner will opt to cease all dollar debt payments rather than settle with the holdouts.

The cost to insure Argentine debt against default soared as much as 576 basis points, or 5.76 percentage points, to 1,534 basis points after the ruling. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point equals 1.000 dollars annually on a contract protecting 10 million dollars of debt.

Likewise the extra yield investors demand to own Argentine government dollar debt instead of US Treasuries surged 173 basis points to 1.024 basis points since the decision, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Elliott, with 1.6 billion in claims stemming from Argentina’s record 100 billion default in 2001, rejected offers to swap the notes for 30 cents on the dollar and wants the nation to pay in full.

Earlier in the day Fitch Ratings also cut Argentina’s credit outlook to negative. Argentina’s B rating on its long- and short-term foreign currency debt was placed on credit-watch negative, according to a statement.
 

105 comments Feed

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1 Troy Tempest (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 05:14 am Report abuse
Campora Alert ! Campora Alert !!

Call out BK!

Call out Pirat-Alex !

CFK is vaguely unwell !!

Disaster, the world is ending !!

Quickly, rally around the Queen !!

OMG, what will we do ?????
2 Ayayay (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 05:33 am Report abuse
Lol at you
3 Troy Tempest (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 05:44 am Report abuse
“I'm vaguely unwell.
Off with their heads!”, said the Red Queen

“Oh, my ears and whiskers!” said the rabbit.
4 toooldtodieyoung (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 06:50 am Report abuse
S&P lowers Argentina’s rating, as credit-default insurance soars to highest in the world

Who would have guessed? You see? I always knew that Argentina would be number 1 at SOMETHING..............A record to be proud of I feel and one that will stand for quite a long time.
5 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:21 am Report abuse
When are the next bond payments due? Will CFK really refuse to pay any of them due to the NY court decision?
6 surfer (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:57 am Report abuse
Default II
7 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:00 am Report abuse
(5) Idlehands

Yet another turnipy comment/question from one of the most prolific “Economy Experts Turnips” on MercoPress.......

Answer:
If the New York Bank can't be used......
Then we will use the BIS (www.bis.org/)
Simples
8 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:15 am Report abuse
You do realise you sound like a 2 year old calling everyone a turnip in every post don't you?
9 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:23 am Report abuse
(8) Idlehands

Not “everyone”..................... Just the Turnips....
10 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:28 am Report abuse
You also might find it's not as “simple” as you hope to simply change banks

blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/10/29/argentina-debt-turbulent-times/#axzz2ArmyoKlr
11 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:54 am Report abuse
(10) Idlehands (one of the most prolific “Economy Experts Turnips” on MercoPress)

Your FT link says…..
”The possibility of making payments outside US jurisdiction can buy time but we (Barclays Bank) “THINK” this WOULD still LIKELY trigger CDS or default on the NY and UK law bonds….”

Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooow…..!!!
Barclays Bank “THINKS” this “WOULD” still “LIKELY”……
Three dubitative adjectives in one phrase!!!!
They must be very, very sure
Chuckle chuckle©
12 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:58 am Report abuse
“Economy Experts Turnips” - as an insult it's pretty lame as it makes no grammatical sense.

Where is your evidence that Argentina will change to the BIS and that it will be the simple solution you claim?
13 Doveoverdover (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:00 am Report abuse
@9 A wise man once wrote that there is a little bit of turnip in all of us.....
14 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:08 am Report abuse
(13) Cmdr. McDod

Absolutely right....
Question is............ How effectively we control our inner Turnip?
15 MurkyThink (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:13 am Report abuse
Let's say

лоброе утро ( read as ... doroye utro )

to everybody !
16 MistyThink (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:32 am Report abuse
sorry,

should be -- д-- instead of -- л.--.

thanks....сласибо (spasiba)
17 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:35 am Report abuse
@ 7 Think

I see your point but I don't think it will be simple. Looking from a legal/transactional view point, the Agent will need to be replaced which will require the consent of the bondholders. Any bank or bondholder accepting payment but NOT paying out to all note holders will contravene the ruling given by the court. It is unlikely that BIS would want to do this (think of it as effectively a sanctions points relating specifically to these sorts of payments made by Argentina).

So, if BIS won't do it (and they are under no obligation to do so):

1. Argentina will either have to pay the full amount to the Agent (probably not going to happen as CFK has already said no to this); or

2. Pay the amount minus the holdouts and ask the Agent to forward the cash on (again not going to happen as the Agent won't want to contravene the court order); or

3. Spread out the amount they would normally pay to all of the bondholders (includings holdouts) and thus everyone getting less. Again, not going to happen.

It can't see another way to do it and all three of these options would lead to a default. Do we have a New York qualified structured finance lawyer amongst us who specialises in these kind of noteholder re-structurings? I’ve only worked on UK issued notes and bond restructurings.
18 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:59 am Report abuse
17. You are spot on, Think, like CFK, has no idea what he is talking about or how anything works in the real world.
Remember in their corrupt country they can do whatever they want because they control the courts. Nothing is illegal unless/until CFK's administration says it is.
December should be very interesting....
I wonder what N8 will look like?
19 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:10 am Report abuse
(17) Welsh Wizard*
*(A non Turnipy, yet very critical Welsh individual, worth listening to.
A sweet Argie wife + a hard working Argie MiL add to his credibility )

And why in earth would the Bank for International Settlement don't do it?
The mission of a “Bank for International Settlement” is exactly that.
Don't you “Think”?
20 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:33 am Report abuse
19 Think

The first paragraph of Welsh Wizard's post explains why the BIS probably wouldn't do it.
21 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:46 am Report abuse
@ 19

Yup, again I see why you would think that they would automatically do it as they are an alternative settlement house. However, having worked as a banking lawyer and therefore understanding the procedures, it is very unlikely that anyone internally will want to take the decision to offer a settlement procedure which effectively been ruled against in the court of competent jurisdiction which governs the documents. This would create serious problems for BIS and it would put the institution at loggerheads with the US courts. So, from an internal risk management point of view I doubt that there will be anyone internally that would want to make the call as it could cost them their job.

Secondly you have to ask what BIS would get out of this? Yes, they may get a settlement fee but the downside would be possible litigation in the US, a political and economic stand-off which would ultimately not help BIS at all. Remember that even though this is an organisation which is independent of the US/UK/world financial system they still operate within it and, as such, their actions would fall within that scope.

Furthermore, and this is where people HAVE to read the judgement to understand what is happening, BIS would pay the proceeds into the bank accounts of the noteholders (mainly US banks) who would be holding this money on trust for the noteholders. By doing this they would also be contravening the court order. The judge cast a pretty wide net which managed to catch pretty much anyone who facilitated in any payment which went against the pari passu clause. Therefore the acceptance of any money from BIS into a bank account which is under US jurisdiction would contravene the judgement. Why not pay this into a bank account which is outside US jurisdiction? Well, those banks would have subsidiaries in the US and parent company would not want their subsids to take the risk. Why not pay it into a bank which doesn’t have a US subsid? (more coming)...
22 surfer (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:54 am Report abuse
Very interesting, please continue...
23 ChrisR (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:55 am Report abuse
21 Welsh Wizard

Please carry on.

BTW doesn't the judgement open up an access to the Paris Club?
24 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:57 am Report abuse
Sorry, had to wait for someone else to post before I could continue...

Well, the credit rating of the bank is likely to be too low for the noteholders to take the risk of leaving their cash in such a bank (as they wouldn’t be allowed to transfer it back into the accounts we mentioned earlier as this would contravene the ruling). This is all this without the issue of FATCA coming in which would result in any payment in US$ being paid outside the system subject to a possible 30% withholding tax.

Furthermore, any change to payment of any kind is going to have to be made with the consent of the noteholders, if not then you have an instant default. Sorry for the long-winded explanation but it is all more complicated than people think as it requires not only the ability to pay outside NY but also the willingness and this is the major (and possibly insurmountable) hurdle.
25 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:04 pm Report abuse
To summarise for Welsh Wizard - there's nothing but trouble in it for anyone daft enough to choose to get involved.
26 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:09 pm Report abuse
@23

Re the Paris Club, yes, I think that is does open up an avenue for them. At present their attitude has been to try and solve this without litigation. However, should this change then they may well wish to follow a similar route. I expect that they are waiting for all legal avenues to be exhausted and they will then decide what do in the knowledge that they will not need to go through endless appeal procedures...
27 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:32 pm Report abuse
You have to assume until CFK is gone that no company or gov't in Argentina will be able to get any outside financing. NONE.

“Argentina is listed for possible demotion from Frontier due to continuing stringent capital controls imposed on international investors and the perceived lack of an independent regulatory authority to protect the rights of shareholders,” FTSE said in a statement. “Argentina was demoted from Secondary Emerging to Frontier in 2010.”

Read more: community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-10/downgrade-could-hasten-argentinas-frontier-departure.aspx?storyid=185817#ixzz2AsZwxIvq
28 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:38 pm Report abuse
What Judge Griesa has effectively done is put the ball back in the government’s court by saying “you’re committed (politically) to paying out under these bonds but if you do, you have to pay everyone equally”. At the same time he has taken away the loophole which previously existed so has placed the government in a sort of tragic double bind. The onus is now on the government to try and work out how they are going to deal with the problem. Who will blink first?
29 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:44 pm Report abuse
Is there any legal related reason that Argentina has chosen not to pay the holdouts anything at all?
30 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:46 pm Report abuse
CFK's whining that the ruling will send them into default and the economy into a tailspin has no bearing on the law. I am not sure why they even brought it up in court?

When is the next payment due? IDec?
31 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:54 pm Report abuse
@30 Yup, next coupon payment due in 1 month. The Government's economic argument for non-payment makes no sense as they keep on saying that they have $45bn in reserves. IF they do then this ruling wouldn't send them into default or economic tailspin. Of course, if they don't have this amount, then the ruling could very well do just that. Again, as no-one truly know the economic situation (i.e. the hard facts/stats) it becomes very difficult to work out what the position is. However, the fact that president of the nation is so worried by this judgement could point to the fact that there isn't the hard cash to cover the required payments under this judgement.
32 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 12:58 pm Report abuse
(21) Welsh Wizard

Your opinion, even if quite educated remains still.......... just your educated opinion.

My uneducated opinion is that this “Great Vulture Funds Victory”; highly basooned by the FT and the WSJ is just a storm in a glass of water.

One positive aspect of this NY court ruling though is that it has definitively blocked the orthodox forces in the present Argentinean administration that advocated for the reinsertion of Argentina into the “Global Debt Market”.
A reinsertion I adamantly oppose......

In my humble opinion, Argentina needs to continue with...:
1) The total Re-Pesification of our economy.....
2) The continued pursuit of Economical and Financial independence in close collaboration with our partneres at Merco and Unasur......

Anyhow,.......as always,…… we will have to wait and see how this develops.....
Won't we?
33 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:08 pm Report abuse
Argentina needs U$ and the only avenue left is trade in Soy and Cars.

Brazil will not recover enough this year or next to for Argentina to have a surplus with them. It looks like Soy, Corn & Wheat will be equal to or below last year's crop ( which wasn't good).

So which Unasur/MercoSur country do you think will be buying Arg Bonds and why would they pay less than the mkt rate ( solidarity? hahaha).

You wanted isolation now you've got it.

The path is assured:
Devaluation/Hyperinflation/Depression

Barley para todos

Merry Christmas.
34 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:09 pm Report abuse
@32

True, it is just an opinion but I have tried to look at with my lawyers hat on, as it were, and giving it similar thought to debt restructurings I have previously acted on (for both governments and corporates). Hopefully it can be a starting point to an informative discussion...(we live in eternal hope)
35 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:23 pm Report abuse
(34) Welsh Wizard

If my memory serves me correctly, you have spent the last many months in agreement with MercoPress's “Doomsdays Preppers” epitomized by the ineffable ”Yankiboy“.......

You speaking with some Argie pensioners on your last trip to Argentina, seems to have opened your eyes a bit though…….

Hopefully it can be a starting point to some informative exchanges...

You ain't no Turnip....

No need to ”play” being one….
36 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:40 pm Report abuse
I love Doomsday Preppers - though they should rename it “Paranoia Parade” instead.

The seed collectors were my favourites. Horrified that they couldn't get their seeds from the fridge into a bag in under an arbitrary two minutes:; it never occured to them that they could store their seeds in a bag in the fridge. The chap who blew off his own finger while prepping came a close second.
37 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:52 pm Report abuse
I have not heard much about the (Inter) National Protest day next week or the National Strike in Dec, anyone have an update?

Could this be why CFK fainted?
38 British_Kirchnerist (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 01:53 pm Report abuse
The end is not nigh, Cristina will recover and deal with this as with all the banksterist attacks. The country cannot be held hostage and told not to care about its own people for so long as it has such a strong leader
39 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:04 pm Report abuse
(36) Idlehands

You say:
“I love Doomsday Preppers......
The seed collectors were my favourites.
The chap who blew off his own finger while prepping came a close second.”

I say:
I luuuuv MercoPress's Doomsday Preppers......
Mr. Yankiboy, the shoe salesman, is, unquestionably, my favorite......
Mr. Idlehands, prepping on his little motorboat, comes a close second......
40 Welsh Wizard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:05 pm Report abuse
@35 Think

The point about the pensioners is fair and I was happy as guys I was talking to were left of centre and had to deal with the worse of the dictatorship, quite a few of them went in to hiding. It is nice that they are now able to go abroad and have a good retirement. However, I wouldn't want this it be at the detriment of future generations. They thought htat the reason why they could go abroad was because the peso was so strong on the international currency markets as the rest of the world wanted to buy Arg. pesos and this was why the could go abroad. The reality is different, as we know, because the exchange rate is heavily subsidised and this can't really continue. This why I forecast a devaluation as I can't see the political will changing, only the economic circumstances as Argentinta will price itself out of the market. It is at this point that, for example my pensioners will suffer and could find any dollar savings again wiped out. I'm coming from a point of view where I don't want this to happen, not for any political view or purpose but for the fact that my family-in-law will not be able to come and visit, that both sets of grandparents will lose what little savings they have and it will result in pain for all of them.
41 Tinx (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:24 pm Report abuse
& 18

Your comment was read not correctly..
should be that “”“......has no idea what she is talking about or how anythings works in the real world...”“”
also she is not from Argentina !
You could be more watchful.........
I know her all comment names (lets talk herself)and don't read them..
do it like me ......!
42 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:28 pm Report abuse
(40) Welsh Wizard
I concord with you in most of what you are saying at this post….......
That's why I an so adamant about the Re-Pesification of the Argentinean economy.
The Dollar has to cease being a potential “Weapon of Economic Mass Destruction” in Argentina.
This “WMD” potential was evident last year, just before Cristina Kirchner re-election.
A panic was created……
All based on totally false rumors……
The country was totally de-capitalized in a matter of months….
Because of “rumors” created by the usual 1% elite that would have profited enormously from an uncontrolled devaluation of the dollar…..
In detriment of the same Argentinean people youdefend and harbor warm feelings for.....

J'espère que je me suis bien fait comprendre……
43 Leiard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:38 pm Report abuse
@42

You cannot keep blaming the counties problems on the dollar.

What ever base currency you choose the peso will still be worth the same.
44 Tinx (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:39 pm Report abuse
My point is that countries rating gauge should be classified according to their unemployment & internet using rates.
45 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:44 pm Report abuse
39 Think

Hmmm.....another fascinating fact. My “little motorboat” could outrun the entire Argentine navy with ease. Maybe I should take up smuggling dollars. I'll give Think a discount.
46 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 02:53 pm Report abuse
(45) British Mr. & Mrs. Idlehands in their “prepped” motorboat……;-)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVu5uR_GHWk
47 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 03:12 pm Report abuse
The fact that you are now implying I am a “prepper” highlights your natural ability to confuse, misunderstand misinterpret and generally fail to grasp what everyone else is saying.
48 Tinx (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 03:16 pm Report abuse
Hey.... S&P

Wasn't you a agency put the Bears Stearn rating up one week before its collapsing ?

When do you think Ukraine's rating down ?..but you can not ..can't do !

You fool flock....who can care of you .!
49 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 03:50 pm Report abuse
48 Tinx

You need to stick to more simple sentences rather than trying to translate a Spanish expression.

Sentences 2 & 3 make no sense in English.
50 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 03:53 pm Report abuse
(47) Idlehands

You say:
“The fact that you are now implying I am a “Prepper” highlights your natural ability to confuse, misunderstand misinterpret and generally fail to grasp what everyone else is saying.”

I say:
How could I possibly confuse, misunderstand misinterpret or generally fail to grasp the simple message you “Preppers” are conveying to us....:

2003 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2004 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2005 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2006 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2007 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2008 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2009 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2010 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2011 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2012 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......
2013 Argentina is a failed Country. They will go bankrupt latest next year......

Message understood Mr. Prepper......
I just don’t believe it…..
Never have…….
51 Joe Bloggs (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:03 pm Report abuse
50 Think

It's very similar to how you Malvinista deadbeats try to convince everyone you'll get your hands on the Falkland Islands one day. Wouldn't you think?

Chuckle chuckle.
52 Idlehands (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:11 pm Report abuse
50 Think

Go find me my posts that have said Argentina will be bankrupt by X or Y year. You are confusing who posts what now too.
53 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:14 pm Report abuse
(51) Joe Bloggs

I thought you said you didn't want to speak to me anymore?
There was a time when one could rely on a Kelpers word!
Nevermind... How is “you little something” going?
Delayed by that blasted BOP I assume?
54 ChrisR (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:45 pm Report abuse
47 Idlehands

Now I realise why 'I don't Think' keeps on about turnips. He's besotted with the woman on this video; I think it must be her voice that attracts him:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMeb6SW0Tc0

LOLs
55 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:53 pm Report abuse
That video reminded me a had the best turnip/carrot puree the other day..mmm.

Looks like it was shot in the Pampas with all of that standing water!
56 ProRG_American (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:54 pm Report abuse
So What!
57 Leiard (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 04:56 pm Report abuse
@42

Why do you keep blaming your countries problems on the dollar?.

Is it not true that whatever world currency you may wish to compare/convert the pesos be it the dollar, the euro or the yen the actual true value of the peso will not change ?.
58 Tinx (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 06:19 pm Report abuse
& 49

I wrote post “”& 48“” addressing to S&P employees discern to what i mean.

These sentences could be senseful If you know the Economy .

Everybody can not be Economist which requires some abilities;
like Mathematical Thinking,.., Socially Balanced Self Morality,,...
Willingness,.., Independent Spirit,,..Strong/Consistent Personality,,...
Imagination,...Leadership Quality,, ..Equitable/Fair-Minded,,..Resilient

Do you know anyone who has these attributes in the world except I am .?
59 surfer (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 06:31 pm Report abuse
Agentina's next goverment will have an almighty mess to clear up, current one just keeps digging.
60 Tinx (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 06:41 pm Report abuse
Where is Agentina ?
61 Yuleno (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:00 pm Report abuse
It's interesting to see yankeeboy's contribution to the discussion on this article.He is clearly a bit lost as to what others are posting.Interesting.
Clearly the scenario that is highlighted is possible but the relevant question is why would the financial community want to go there?What would the financial community want to avert this scenario?
It is unlikely that the USA dependant crowd and the European crowd would divide but what are the gains for Europe.What it does reveal yet again is the validity of the project to create multi centres in the capitalist world.
62 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:12 pm Report abuse
Yul, WTF does that jumble of words mean?

mark my words, when I said GM and Ford could pull out next year. Profit at Ford is down to 9MM, and they are on track to lose $ next year due wholly to the anti business policies of CFK.

They all they have left is Soy.

Rut ro
63 Joe Bloggs (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:29 pm Report abuse
Argentine Deadbeats say:
1980: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1981: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1982: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
1983: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1984: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1985: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1986: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1987: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1988: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
1989: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1990: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1991: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1992: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1993: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1994: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1995: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
1996: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1997: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1998: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
1999: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2000: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2001: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
2002: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2003: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2004: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2005: Argentina owns the Falklands. They wi
64 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:39 pm Report abuse
(63) Joe Bloggs

I guess the above means that “you little something” is further delayed?
65 Joe Bloggs (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 07:42 pm Report abuse
2006: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
2007: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2008: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2009: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2010: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2011: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2012: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
2013: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2014: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2015: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2016: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2017: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2018: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2019: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
2020: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2021: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2022: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2023: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2024: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2025: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
(yawn)
2026: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2027: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
2027: Argentina owns the Falklands. They will be in our hands one day......
Message understood Malvinista Deadbeats......
Just one problem…..
Nobody’s listening…….
66 Ayayay (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:15 pm Report abuse
Wait, Argentina did default in 2005.
67 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:16 pm Report abuse
(65) Joe Bloggs

Still no news about “you little something”.......huhhhhh?
68 mastershakejb (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:22 pm Report abuse
Turnip and some ridiculous dream of using another bank (which even if possible and that's highly unlikely, would still DEFINITELY be default), is the best you can come up with in response to your country having THE worst credit rating in the world, and your country absolutely crumbling to pieces? You'e gone as insane as Cristina.
69 Ayayay (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:28 pm Report abuse
What what Wat? Arjewntina is LUCKY to be the jewiest of Latin America. Weeere do you think the prosperity is generated?
SO many Jewish names I see in this paper-Timmerman? ChristinaKirchner chose a cabinet that was jewcy
70 Joe Bloggs (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:40 pm Report abuse
There'll be no formal announcement. No press conference. No unveiling at Government House with a heap of 1982 vets on display like puppets only to be turned out onto the street and bashed by the police after they're done with. No video link-up with a family in camp explaining about how they've just had the power connected even though they've had it for 20 years.

No. This is just going to start happening like most things that go on in the Falklands. The journalists will have to sniff this story out for themselves so it's not likely to appear on Mercopress or P News for quite some time because those publications don't have journalists.

With hindsight people will start to realise what's happened when they consider the rate of and size of the internal and external investment that has obviously poured into the islands as a result of this VERY significant development.

All pretty much on time. Like I said in another post earlier today: the ink should be dry in another week.
71 Yuleno (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 08:53 pm Report abuse
62# yankeeboy
As I wrote,your contribution on this is interesting.You are prattling the same old moronic garble you usually post.Is there nothing else you want to say.Or is there nothing else you are capable of saying?
72 Think (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:35 pm Report abuse
70 Joe Bloggs

You say:
With hindsight people will start to realise what's happened when they consider the rate of and size of the internal and external investment that has obviously poured into the islands as a result of this VERY significant development.

I say
You are opening a Curry Takeaway !!!
73 yankeeboy (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:36 pm Report abuse
Yul, Do you think CFk and all of her friends and family have shorted Argentina's U$ denominated bonds?

I bet so...

cause nobody but nobody is this stupid unless.....

she is trying to destroy the economy
74 briton (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 09:55 pm Report abuse
We see the indocronoughts are out in force, defending the undefendable,

Their lies are almost more convincing than their leaders..lol.
.
75 toooldtodieyoung (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:10 pm Report abuse
72 Think

Yeah, Why don't you answer mastershakejb @ 68?? Or are you STILL trying TMBOA / Ol' Turkey Neck / KFC / The Harpy's trick of never answering any question put to you?
76 Pirate Love (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:38 pm Report abuse
Im sorry but, HAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHHA!!!!
B- , HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHaaa
Belarus, AAAAAAAAhahahahahahahhahahh!
credit-watch negative OOOOOHAHAHAAaaaaaa
any news on Argentina retrieving their flagship yet????? HAHAHAHAaaaa

oh argentina arent you a pretty picture???? :)))))))
77 Yuleno (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 10:44 pm Report abuse
Yankeeboy
The ratings agencies did what you are talking about.
And because Argentina is an independant state that wishes to be independant and not dependant on the neo-liberal clique who want to get richer and richer because of their insecurities.God bless them and their followers like you.
You forgot your moldy barley quip or did I influence you.See you soon in BA
78 Xect (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:10 pm Report abuse
Argentina is not financially independent nor does it wish to be one hence the reason why it borrows money from the WCB and trade your investments on yours and foreign markets.

Argentina's economy is also completely reliant on world markets.

If Argentina could get the money markets unlocked it would do so but alas it seems Argentina is still struggling to service its debt which isn't anything new but its one of the many causes for its freefall into another economic abyss.

I actually don't agree with the actions of the Elliott company and the way its causing Argentina major financial problems, like triggering the recent downgrades which hurts Argentina badly and could cause another default. The best thing Argentina could do at this point is try to pay off or appease Elliott company as it seems utterly incapable of winning the fight and the longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Argentina.

I really don't think its funny a private organisation bringing down Argentina even if its decline is somewhat inevitable.
79 mastershakejb (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:24 pm Report abuse
It's the best thing for Argentina and the world, to get the pain over sooner rather than later, of a collapse and rebuild. It's also a lesson Argentina very clearly needs to learn.
The reason it is good for the world is that Argentina needs to be a major food producer, and right now it's not living up to its potential, waste of fertile land. If Argentina can become a major food producer again, reach its potential, that could lower food prices globally, as well as provide a larger food buffer for disasters.
80 Anbar (#) Oct 31st, 2012 - 11:47 pm Report abuse
“You do realise you sound like a 2 year old calling everyone a turnip in every post don't you?”

No, I dont think he (they) does/do. :-0

---------

“I really don't think its funny a private organisation bringing down Argentina even if its decline is somewhat inevitable.”

wtf?

Who defaulted in the first place?

OMG... you mean “You lent us the money - DUMBASS!” is now a legitimate defence ??? !!!!
81 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 12:17 am Report abuse
@78 Xect

“Argentina is not financially independent nor does it wish to be one hence the reason why it borrows money from the WCB and trade your investments on yours and foreign markets.

Argentina's economy is also completely reliant on world markets.

If Argentina could get the money markets unlocked it would do so but alas it seems Argentina is still struggling to service its debt which isn't anything new but its one of the many causes for its freefall into another economic abyss. ”

Yes, unfortunately that is the bond you are in.
The credit squeeze makes it hard to earn profits, which makes it hard to service debt, which means no credit or expensive credit for industry, which means less returns or profits, which means... etc etc

You have my sympathy as a regular citizen just trying to keep working and get by. However, your government (CFK) did not invest it in industry as they should have. Ask yourself, “where did it go?”

Most of the debt was renegotiated and settled at 30%. Argentina did very well, but there was still 7% of their debt they did not want to pay. They could afford that debt at 100% payback, but refused. NML cannot do anything except tske drastic action and seize assets.
Argentina says it has $45b in liquid assets. Some people speculate $5b to $10b
In reality.

Ask yourself, “what happened to it ?”

Good wishes to the people of Argentina - change your government.
82 Hook (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 01:59 am Report abuse
yawn.. people always say here in this forum that once CFK is gone everything will be alright and blaa blaa. . . when has Argentina had a good leader and a stable economy? in the 1950's or something?
83 Uruguayan_And_Proud (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 02:23 am Report abuse
Good Argentina Good, all according to the plan. Once CFK trashes the economy and she leaves Argentina in a bunch of riots Uruguay will step in and take bueno aires and other northern provinces,or maybe all of argentina, and make uruguay a big nation. I cannot wait for the day. Maybe it will one day have paraguay in there too. Good days for uruguay when that happens
84 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 02:34 am Report abuse
@82 Hook

”yawn.. people always say here in this forum that once CFK is gone everything will be alright and blaa blaa. . . when has Argentina had a good leader and a stable economy? in the 1950's or something?

Agreed, Hook.
However, their economy and quality of life will definitely not get better until CFK is gone. How could the next one be worse?
85 Hook (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 03:16 am Report abuse
84@ difficult to imagine how could there be worse prez than CFK. She's so bad i've started to think she works for the enemy. Still, i think if they don't get rid of her in good time, the next prez will be someone from her camp.

83@ Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile should use the moment and divide Argentina between them, take all the good parts at least.
86 St.John (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 06:52 am Report abuse
I have a very unpleasant gut feeling that the 45 billion US$ are there, but that this sum includes every and all privately held US$, in safes, bank deposits, stuffed into mattresses and toy bears, etc.

Thus the government actual disposable holding is much less, perhaps below 10 bio. US$ and this money is sorely needed to buy the full range of oil, natural gas, medicine, etc., etc., and capital goods, etc.

Argentina will get a 2012 trade surplus, but everything points to the 14-16 bio. US$ range.

Argentina's trade surplus 2012 in was
a) 1st+2nd Q 7.3 bio. US$ [1]
b) july 1 bio. US$ [2]
c) August 1.64 bio. US$ [3]
d) September 0.911 bio. US$ [4]
d) nobody knows yet how October turned out.

This adds up to 10.9 bio. US$ in the first 3 quarters -> 14.5 bio. in 4 quarters; and we also know that year over year 2011.08-2012.08 was 10.04 bio. US$ [3].

Adding this to Welsh Wizard's above explanations, I fear that my friends in Argentina are facing a very unpleasant near future unless (as I sincerely hope as I actually like Argentina and Argentinos) the government stops acting on emotions and instead starts acting in a rational way - i.e. disposes of cronies in favor of competent national economists.

[1] en.mercopress.com/2012/08/18/argentina-manages-a-7.3bn-dollars-surplus-in-first-half-of-the-year
[2] en.mercopress.com/2012/08/23/a-billion-dollars-trade-surplus-for-argentina-in-july-mercosur-main-partner
[3] en.mercopress.com/2012/09/07/argentina-achieves-12-month-trade-surplus-target-in-august-with-10.04bn-dollars
[4] en.mercopress.com/2012/10/25/argentina-reaches-surplus-target-but-exports-in-september-plummeted-27
87 Ayayay (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 07:27 am Report abuse
@86 also good analysis
88 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 10:04 am Report abuse
#32 ”My uneducated opinion is that this “Great Vulture Funds Victory”; highly basooned by the FT and the WSJ is just a storm in a glass of water.

One positive aspect of this NY court ruling though is that it has definitively blocked the orthodox forces in the present Argentinean administration that advocated for the reinsertion of Argentina into the “Global Debt Market”.
A reinsertion I adamantly oppose......

In my humble opinion, Argentina needs to continue with...:
1) The total Re-Pesification of our economy.....
2) The continued pursuit of Economical and Financial independence in close collaboration with our partneres at Merco and Unasur......“

Excellent analysis Think. We on the left shouldn't be too phased that after 30 years of neoliberals in power some court rulings sometimes favour vulture funds, even if its all legal doesn't make it right, the really interesting thing is how many times they don't win, despite everything! And I imagine that pesification and reional solidarity will be the solution. Out of interest who would you identify as the ”orthodox forces” in the Argentine government? I doubt Cristina is that orthodox, but I note Boudou and Marco de Pont used to be bankers, do old habits die hard...
89 Think (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 10:48 am Report abuse
(88) British_Kirchnerist
Bodou was one........
Mercedes is OK....
90 yankeeboy (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 11:24 am Report abuse
It is sickening how Argentinians keep known crooks in power.

Stupid and Sickening.
91 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 12:17 pm Report abuse
#89 Yes I've always liked her, despite her background. Doesn't look like Boudou's got much chance of being President now, which is good if you're right about him! Why does Cristina always get failed by her VPs? Timmerman should be her running mate in 2015 to ensure a loyal and capable deputy =)
92 Xect (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 01:19 pm Report abuse
Tinman a capable deputy! BWHAHAHAHAHHAH

Is this the same Tinman that has been caught on numerous occasions being, shall we select confused about the truth? My favourite one was the 'secret advanced military radar' which actually was a weather radar international bodies have been doing research with for many years!

If you believe he is capable then all is lost for you. He's the biggest failure out of all of them.
93 yankeeboy (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 01:25 pm Report abuse
The best part of CFK letting Timmerman be her VP is that it is hard to find someone more stupid as she is...and there is no worries there!
94 Yuleno (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 01:31 pm Report abuse
Could have picked you yankeeboy.You'd fit the criteria you invented.
95 yankeeboy (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 01:52 pm Report abuse
I never would have boarded a super powers military jet without permission. They should should have shot that fool's head off.
96 Pirat-Hunter (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 02:59 pm Report abuse
Good this means no dollars will be coming to Argentina an the peso will start climbing slowly since Argentina will not be creating demand for dollars which move around the earth creating jobs for Americans who work for dollars. We hope the pesos moves around to fill the gap left by the foreign capital and create jobs in Argentina in the long run. Everything takes time Argentina should be patients.
97 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 03:42 pm Report abuse
#95 Yet they didn't, he got away with it, which perhaps makes him smarter than you =)
98 yankeeboy (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 04:16 pm Report abuse
They got away with nothing; we have voted against IDB WB loans, removed the trade preferences and made sure the wheels were in motion to get kicked out of IMF and G20.
Do you think all of that happen by chance?
You are as stupid as CFK.

Payback is a b*tch.
haha
99 Ayayay (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 04:48 pm Report abuse
The peso isn't climbing, the president and Axel have planned for a greater devaluation to 5 plus to the the dollar in their OWN budget. And supposedly in negotiations w Uruguay to allow the light blue rate for travel.
100 Conqueror is crazy (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 05:51 pm Report abuse
@98
poor Isolde ....she just lost her husband....Conqueror aka Captain Poppy
101 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 01st, 2012 - 09:35 pm Report abuse
#97 Not chance, but wouldn't you have done it anyway?!
102 Ayayay (#) Nov 02nd, 2012 - 03:14 am Report abuse
Remember when Hitler, Socialist party), started up the Hitler Youth during hyperinflation?
Thank god Argentina is the opposite of a bunch of hyperefficient Germans.
In this situation, the nightclub fiesta siesta lifestyle is their redemption.
103 Pirat-Hunter (#) Nov 03rd, 2012 - 03:02 pm Report abuse
I say Argentina needs to create an import tax of 50% for Evey nation giving help and refuge to vulture funds. We also need to bring into litigation the property of foreign miners polluting the earth and water in Latin America. We can use this opportunity to take Argentina back from the foreigners.
104 ChrisR (#) Nov 03rd, 2012 - 08:36 pm Report abuse
@101 Blind_Scottie_Kirchnerist

Why are you posting to yourself? #97 is YOU, unless you have been cloned as well. :o)
105 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 03rd, 2012 - 10:37 pm Report abuse
Oh I meant #98, thanks for the correction =)

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