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China's exports/imports fall in March; trade surplus lowest in 13 years

Tuesday, April 14th 2015 - 18:35 UTC
Full article 54 comments
Analysts said recent indicators showed further signs the slowdown is continuing. In US dollar terms, China's exports for the month fell 15%, while imports fell 12.7%. Analysts said recent indicators showed further signs the slowdown is continuing. In US dollar terms, China's exports for the month fell 15%, while imports fell 12.7%.

China's monthly trade data shows exports fell in March from a year ago by 14.6% in Yuan terms, compared to expectations for a rise of more than 8%. Imports meanwhile fell 12.3% in Yuan terms compared to forecasts for a fall of more than 11%.

 The numbers mean the country's monthly trade surplus has shrunk to its smallest in 13 months. China's economy grew by 7.4% in 2014, its weakest for almost 25 years.

Analysts said recent indicators showed further signs the slowdown is continuing. In US dollar terms, China's exports for the month fell 15%, while imports fell 12.7%.

Currency conversion factors based on US dollar and Chinese Yuan movements over the last year mean some official numbers from the mainland are now reported in both currencies.

The official March data leaves the country with a monthly trade surplus of 18.16bn Chinese Yuan ($2.92bn). In February, China's monthly trade surplus hit a record $60.6bn, as exports grew and imports slid back.

Analysts said the export numbers for March were a surprise.

“We can understand the imports fell because of falling imports of commodities, but exports fell so much, it was very much unexpected,” said Shanghai-based analyst Nie Wen from Hwabao Trust.

However, he said one major reason for the falling exports was Yuan appreciation.

Tony Nash, global vice president of Delta Economics, said the numbers took in the lunar new year period which was typically a bit volatile.

“We usually average February and March to get a true picture of what's actually happening,” he said.

“If we look at February's 48% rise in exports and March's 15% fall in exports, we get a moving average of 16.7%, which is closer to where we've seen exports over the past two months.”

But Mr Nash said Delta Economics was expecting a further slowdown going forward.

“In the second quarter, we'll look for an average of 9.9% year-on-year export growth and 11.7% import growth,” he said.

”Trade will fall towards the back half of the year and we will look for average export growth in 2015 at 8.7% year-on-year, and import growth at 10.3% year-on-year. (BBC).-

Categories: Economy, International.

Top Comments

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  • Briton

    Apparently ours has fallen as well,
    yet our exports to China has increased,

    what a funny old world we live in.

    Apr 14th, 2015 - 07:13 pm 0
  • yankeeboy

    Told ya...
    This is going to get worse before it gets better

    Prepare for civil unrest moving into the Coastal cities...

    Apr 14th, 2015 - 10:07 pm 0
  • JoseAngeldeMonterrey

    Whilst China´s currency “appreciated” as the report indicates, it only did very slightly, but at the same time the US Dollar gained ground every where in the world. This means China´s numbers are deteriorating much more than a simple seasonal slump in exports. Their surpluses with most countries they do business with are not the result of competitiveness but rather protectionist measures blocking many imports that may hurt Chinese manufacturers. The golden days are gone, hundreds of factories are leaving to other countries looking for lower wages, lower transportation costs and easier business environments. Much of China´s growth is also coming from over capacity, over spending in construction sectors. China has lost their competitiveness.

    Apr 14th, 2015 - 10:42 pm 0
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