With less than a month to Argentina's midterm elections, the government's Senate candidate in the province of Buenos Aires, Esteban Bullrich has a 39.6% vote intention, three percentage points ahead of ex president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, according to the latest M&R and Query public opinion poll.
This seems to indicate that the Senate three benches dispute in Argentina's largest electoral circuit, with 40% of the national vote, favors president Mauricio Macri's Let's Change candidate, since Bullrich is expected to increase its PASO primary performance last August by five percentage points. Cristina Fernandez Citizens' United which managed just a 0.20% percentage point lead in the August primary could finally advance to 36.4%, a two percentage point increase.
These percentages indicate a clear polarization of the electorate in the Buenos Aires province between Let's Change and Citizens United to the detriment of the third most voted candidate last August, Sergio Massa who could see his support drop to just 10.9% with a full loss of five percentage points.
The poll was done between September 23/25 and involved 1.179 interviews.
Reviewing the poll's clues, 39% of men will vote for Cristina while 38% for Bullrich. However when it comes to women, Let's Change is preferred by 41%, and Citizens United, 36%. As to ages, those below 30, have expressed a 44% vote intention for Cristina and 33% for the government' candidate. Likewise Cristina prevails in the age group, 30/49 with a 40% support, compared to 36% for Bullrich. However in the 50 to 65 age group, Bullrich is 15 percentage points ahead of Cristina with 46% vote intention, and above 65, support for the Let's Change candidate jumps to 51%.
Finally Let's Change and Citizens United are the groupings with the strongest vote fidelity, in the range of 90%. This is not the case for Massa with 70% and much less for the fourth candiate Florencio Randazzo who is expected to lose two out of the three votes that supported him in August.