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Montevideo, August 15th 2018 - 16:38 UTC

Majority of Brazilians want Lula in prison and would not support a candidate sponsored by him

Thursday, February 1st 2018 - 20:35 UTC
Full article 23 comments
If he is allowed to run, Lula would lead the field with 34% of the vote in a scenario involving the most likely candidates, according to a Datafolha poll If he is allowed to run, Lula would lead the field with 34% of the vote in a scenario involving the most likely candidates, according to a Datafolha poll
With Lula out of the running, Bolsonaro would get 18% in the first round while Marina Silva would get 13% and Ciro Gomes, 10% With Lula out of the running, Bolsonaro would get 18% in the first round while Marina Silva would get 13% and Ciro Gomes, 10%
Lula ability to transfer votes is slim: 15% of supporters say they would vote Marina Silva and 14% Gomes; 53% would never vote for a candidate backed by Lula. Lula ability to transfer votes is slim: 15% of supporters say they would vote Marina Silva and 14% Gomes; 53% would never vote for a candidate backed by Lula.
“Gerardo Alckmin’s strength is his potential to build a broad coalition. He might be starting the race from the back, but his car is much better than the others” “Gerardo Alckmin’s strength is his potential to build a broad coalition. He might be starting the race from the back, but his car is much better than the others”
Datafolha also showed that 53% of Brazilians believe Lula should be jailed, while 44% feel the contrary and 3%, did not reply. Datafolha also showed that 53% of Brazilians believe Lula should be jailed, while 44% feel the contrary and 3%, did not reply.

Brazil’s presidential election is up for grabs, according to the latest public opinion poll, with popular ex-president Lula da Silva likely to be barred because of his corruption conviction and half of the electorate responding they want to see him in jail.

 If he is allowed to run, Lula would lead the field with 34% of the vote in a scenario involving the most likely candidates, according to a Datafolha poll published Wednesday. It was the first survey taken since Lula’s conviction on corruption charges was upheld by an appeals court last week.

The ruling will likely block him from the Oct. 7 election because of a law banning candidates convicted of crimes, though Lula is appealing.

The new survey showed Lula would be comfortably ahead of other candidates in the first round if he can run, with right-wing congressman Jair Bolsonaro trailing with 16%, followed by environmentalist Marina Silva at 8%. However other pre-candidates, particularly the succesful Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, have still to confirm their bids.

If Lula cannot run, Bolsonaro would take the lead but not get enough votes to win outright in the first round, according to the poll published by the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper. Bolsonaro would lose in a runoff to two-time presidential hopeful Marina Silva, or face a dead heat with likely center-right candidate governor Geraldo Alckmin.

If Lula is definitively disqualified by higher courts, a record 32% of Brazilians polled by Datafolha said they would vote for no one in the presidential race, an increase of 10 percentage points from a poll taken prior to his conviction.

That level of disenchantment with Brazil’s scandal-plagued political class is unprecedented, according to Datafolha director Mauro Paulino. The proportion of voters who said they would back no one in February 2014, ahead of the last election won by impeached leftist Dilma Rousseff, was 19%.

If Lula is out of the running, Bolsonaro would get 18% in the first round while Marina Silva would get 13% and Ciro Gomes, the leftist former governor of Ceará state, 10%. TV presenter Luciano Huck and Alckmin would each get 8% without Lula.

The bad news for Lula’s Workers Party is that his ability to transfer votes is slim, with 15% of supporters saying they would back Marina Silva and 14% going for Gomes. Datafolha found that 53% would never vote for a candidate backed by Lula.

In such an open field, the candidate best able to forge a coalition stands the best chance to take the lead. That could favor centrist Alckmin, according to political scientist Lucas de Aragão, a partner at Brasilia consultancy Arko Advice.

Even though Bolsonaro and Marina Silva have better numbers, both have immense difficulties building coalitions and Bolsonaro appears to have hit his ceiling at 20%, he said.

“Alckmin’s strength is his potential to build a broad coalition. He might be starting the race from the back, but his car is much better than the others,” Aragão said.

Datafolha also showed that 53% of Brazilians believe Lula should be jailed, while 44% feel the contrary and 3%, did not reply.

The Datafolha interviews were conducted on Jan. 29-30, a few days after three appellate court judges voted to uphold Lula’s convictions on taking bribes and money laundering. Datafolha interviewed 2,826 people across Brazil. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Top Comments

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  • Enrique Massot

    @JB

    Who are you trying to fool?

    “Calling Lula a semi-illiterate buffoon is not meant to offend.”

    (Merrian Webster's definition of buffoon: a gross and usually ill-educated or stupid person).

    Come on, Jack. You may have a different opinion than mine--that's fine. However, have a real argument. You are not taking MP readers seriously when you write that above sentence and then pretend you meant something else.

    In reality, you do despise Lula and call him an 'illiterate buffon' because he came from a humble origin, rose to presidency, and this, in your elitist way of thinking, is anathema.

    Lula should be living in a favela and busy himself with surviving instead of sticking his nose (how dares he!) in government and trying to make Brazil a bit more equal which is badly needed.

    (For a good explanation of how human qualities in a president may be more determinant than his/her relative education, refer to DT's posting above, last paragraph).

    In any event, Jack, I have to thank you. In your laborious attempt to demonstrate how Lula's support may come from ”the regions where the people are less-educated, (or ‘ignorant’)” as you wrote above illustrates well your deep aversion for the 'unwashed' and Lula's efforts on their behalf.

    You demonstrate better than I could the mindset of Latin America's ultra wealthy and their apologists, which wants to keep the poor at their place in a semi-feudal rather than capitalist system.

    Also, by focusing on Lula's case and failing to mention the many corruption cases against president Temer, you show blatant bias. You are not worried about corruption--you are only willing to look at Lula's corruption.

    In my view, the nordestinos' support for Lula, if confirmed, would speak volumes about who Lula really was as Brazil's president.

    Feb 09th, 2018 - 07:37 pm +2
  • :o))

    OMG! Who will now look after the thousands of innocent politicians? REF:
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/cc/26/25/cc2625ca9ff5f77bfa83ab6044a7fc9a.jpg

    Feb 03rd, 2018 - 02:15 am +1
  • Enrique Massot

    What a misleading and distorted headline, MP. Not the slightest attempt to appear balanced. After a quick search, here are headlines that some of your colleagues of the international press chose to do on the same story:

    Brazil's Lula leads presidential poll despite upheld conviction (Reuters)

    Ahead of Brazilian election, former President da Silva leads poll despite conviction (The Japan Times)

    Despite Trial, Lula Still Tops Brazil's Presidential Poll (TeleSUR English)

    Brazil's Lula tops poll despite corruption conviction (Euronews)

    It was interesting that out of 14 paragraphs in the above story, six started thus:

    “If he is allowed to run...”

    “The ruling will likely block him from the Oct. 7 election...” (It's mentioned as an afterthought that Lula is appealing)

    “If Lula cannot run...”

    “If Lula is definitively disqualified...”

    “If Lula is out of the running...”

    “The bad news for Lula’s Workers Party...”

    What a way to write the news. As we say in Argentina, it's done with 'mala leche.'

    Feb 02nd, 2018 - 04:33 am 0
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