In their latest monthly report, Conab (National Supply Company) increased their estimate of the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop by 1.2 million tons and they slightly increased their Brazilian corn estimate. Conab is now estimating the 2017/18 Brazilian soybean crop at 110.4 million tons which is 1.2 million tons more than last month's estimate (109.1 million tons). If realized, the 2017/18 crop would be 3.6 million tons lower than the 114.0 million tons produced last year (-3.2%).
After a slow start, the rainy season has been beneficial for the soybeans since early November and as a result, Conabs soybean estimate could move higher in subsequent reports.
Conab estimates that Brazilian farmers increased their soybean acreage by 3.2% to 33.99 million hectares (83.95 million acres). The nationwide average soybean yield is now estimated at 3,156 kg/ha, which is 6.2% lower than last year's yield of 3,365 kg/ha. The lower yield is predicated on the delayed soybean planting that resulted from dry conditions in September and October. If the weather continues to be beneficial, their yield estimate could move higher.
The total 2017/18 Brazilian corn production is estimated at 92.3 million tons, which is slightly higher than last month. Conab has only conducted field surveys for the full-season corn crop, they have not yet conducted a field survey of the safrinha corn crop.
Conab is estimating the full-season corn crop at 25.1 million tons, which would be down 5.2 million tons (-17.3%) from last year's production of 30.4 million tons. Most of the full-season corn is in the process of filling grain with a few fields already mature.