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Montevideo, November 20th 2018 - 00:28 UTC

With Lula out of the presidential race, far-right candidate Bolsonaro is the clear frontrunner

Thursday, June 7th 2018 - 08:53 UTC
Full article 20 comments

Far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro is the clear frontrunner in Brazil’s election in October with up to 25% of voter support, followed by center-left populist Ciro Gomes with 12%, a new poll revealed on Tuesday. Read full article

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  • :o))

    THE “clear frontrunner” is a sure WINNER [of course, supported by PT - their only hope to SAVE Lulla]!

    Jun 07th, 2018 - 04:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @:o))
    Am curious....how did you conclude that the PT will support Bolsonaro ? (other than the notion that the rats - the PT - are abandoning their sinking ship and are trying to hold on to anything to survive...)

    Jun 08th, 2018 - 05:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @JB:

    Exactly as you guessed ALREADY: “the notion that the rats - the PT - are abandoning their sinking ship and are trying to hold on to anything [AND anybody] to survive”

    What's more; Bolsonaro [+ the Donors, Financers, AND Speculators] wouldn't refuse a PT-Clandestine-Support!

    Jun 09th, 2018 - 01:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Maybe the PT would support him in the second round if they disliked the other candidate more? If there IS anyone they dislike more.

    Jun 09th, 2018 - 06:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    The PT - at least officially - (as only the more radical faction within the party) insists that Lula will be their candidate...despite the fact that two laws should frustrate his intentions : first, the fact that he's been convicted by the 2nd lower court (TRF-4) , and second, the “clean slate law” which does not allow anyone convicted of corruption, to be a candidate. IMO, the PT's strategy is to keep him present in the minds of the people (for as long as they can), specially those who haven't yet realized that he can't run ; When this dawns on people, I think the PT won't support anyone, as they might see it as their official admission that Lula is finished. Anyway, only after Lula registers his candidady and has it rejected by the High Electoral Court (TSE), will polls start to reflect reality.

    Jun 09th, 2018 - 09:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Enrique Massot

    “Lula is a political prisoner and a victim of “lawfare” – the misuse of law for political purposes,” wrote professor David Treece and other U.K. academics in a powerful letter to the Guardian.

    The letter signatories added that Lula “must be released and allowed to run for election so that Brazilian citizens can exercise their full democratic rights.”

    The professors added that legal experts in Brazil and around the world have pointed to the irregularities of Lula’s trial.

    “There is overwhelming evidence of (Lula’s) innocence and that he has been tried unfairly and imprisoned to deny his legitimate right to stand in October’s presidential elections, where he is currently leading in the polls.”

    “The UN human rights committee has accepted the petition from Lula’s lawyers to investigate whether Lula’s human rights have been violated (which is) the first time Brazil has been called to account.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/08/brazils-ex-president-lula-imprisoned-to-keep-him-out-of-the-election-letters

    Jun 09th, 2018 - 11:07 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • DemonTree

    @JB
    You think the PT will end up without any candidate, then? What is the point of that, unless they really think they can persuade the courts to allow Lula to stand?

    It says without Lula, Ciro Gomes will likely become the standard bearer of Brazil’s left, but I read somewhere he was distancing himself from the PT. Don't know if that'll help his chances or hurt them.

    What I wonder is who (if anyone) they'd support if the second round was Bolsonaro vs an establishment candidate like Meirelles. But that's very unlikely to happen.

    PS. How was your holiday? You missed the big truckers strike, which might be lucky I guess?

    @EM
    Don't think Bolsonaro winning the presidency is exactly the outcome they hoped for...

    Jun 09th, 2018 - 11:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    Why would Bolsonaro [PLUS His Donors, Financers, AND Speculators] refuse a PT-clandestine-Support?

    Jun 10th, 2018 - 10:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    @EM. Nobody with any education or intelligence believes anything written in the Guardian. It's a leftie hack. As witness the fact that it touts for donations on every article.

    Jun 10th, 2018 - 07:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Hey Conq, does that mean you believe every word they say?

    Jun 10th, 2018 - 09:21 pm - Link - Report abuse +1
  • :o))

    REF: “Lula out of the presidential race”:

    Who says that Lulla is completely “out”? With Gilmar Mendes at the helms; ANYTHING is quite/still possible:
    https://i0.wp.com/www.humorpolitico.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Eun%C3%A9sto87.jpg?zoom=0.8999999761581421&resize=424%2C324&ssl=1

    Jun 11th, 2018 - 11:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @EM
    Sorry to see tt you've either not informed yrself properly on Lula's crimes, or can't be bothered to, because you believe the alleged good he did, cancels out his thievery...just fyi, sure you'll love his last communiqué from prison....he wrote :
    “it is to end the suffering of the people that I am again candidate for president. I take on this mission because I have great responsibility towards Brazil and because Brazilians have the right to vote freely on a project of solidarity , 'fairer and sovereign', persevering in the project of 'integrating Latin America' ”.
    Well doesn't that sound familiar ? first, he refuses to acknowledge it was the PT and his 'style' of government that pushed Brazil into its 'suffering'...second, if he truly felt any responsibility towards Brazil, he would admit he f****'d things up and then disappear ....third, he insists on his old project of 'integrating LatinAmerica'...or, implementing his and Castro's ideas (Foro de São Paulo) of trying to transform Brazil into another Cuba, re which we've seen the failure of such an attempt in Venezuela.

    @DT
    I do think they will NOT have their own candidate....it's their way of protesting and trying to appear as victims. Deep down, the PT knows Lula will not be able to run, however, it's all about making people think differently...IMO. I might be wrong, it's still 4 1/2 months to the elections and a lot can change, as one never knows what the PT-influenced faction of the STF might do.
    Ciro Gomes, popular in certain parts of the NE, while decidedly a radical left-winger, is up to a certain extent, an unknown factor...at times he praises Lula, now he seems to be wanting to distance himself...perhaps he'd like to inherit Lula's votes without being identified to closely with him...who knows ? I still think that if the PT supports a 2nd round runner, it will not be a unanimous decision within the party.
    Holiday was short but rewarding, tks for asking. Yep, managed to avoid the worst.

    Jun 11th, 2018 - 02:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Hmmm. Seems like if Lula really wanted to 'end the suffering of the people' he'd pick some other candidate from his party to endorse, like he did with Dilma. Unless he still thinks there's a chance he could stand...

    “perhaps he'd like to inherit Lula's votes without being identified to closely with him”

    Makes sense. Gomes wouldn't want to be seen as Lula's puppet, or associated with the Lava Jato, but he's trying to appeal to the same demographic as Lula. Perhaps he'll get a bump when (if) the courts declare Lula's candidacy invalid.

    “I still think that if the PT supports a 2nd round runner, it will not be a unanimous decision within the party.”

    Is that because there are different factions within the PT? There's the group who are big supporters of the FdSP, who else is there?

    And can people write in a name on the ballot in Brasil, like I have heard of happening in America? If so I expect a lot of people will still vote for Lula. If not I expect there will be a lot of blank ballots turned in.

    Jun 11th, 2018 - 09:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @DT:

    REF: “can people write in a name on the ballot”:

    Amongst the Highly Respected Notable Candidates [or those who'd LOVE to be one]; a bit difficult to choose between Sergio Cabral, Eduardo Cunha, Collor, Paulo Maluf and of course - Lulla!
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6dtdgm8QsnU/T8f17N-LmiI/AAAAAAAAET8/Ov8CDFfB8OM/s1600/charge_politicos.jpg

    Jun 12th, 2018 - 10:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    Lula's attitude is perfectly comprehensible when you realize that all he cares about is himself. If he doesn't stand to gain from it, he won't support it. He knows, that if the letter of the law is to prevail, he is finished, but he is going to milk the cow until the last drop...even if , in a way, it means suicide for the PT....perhaps that is what he wants, as he probably can't bear the idea that the PT could survive without him.
    The PT has radical and moderate factions....while the former suppports Lula and the Foro de SP, the latter is more realistic and not pro-FdeSP.
    The voting is electronic, nothing in writing.
    Reinforcing what I mentioned a few weeks ago, some recent 'spontaneous' polls (in which candidates' names are omitted) continue to show dwindling support for Lula...(down to 10%...). It's a pity these polls are not given much (or any) attention by the media.
    Lula's insistence that he'll be a candidate, despite he won't be able to (provided the law is upheld) has simply caused confusion in the minds of many, so at this point, polls are not particularly reliable....however, I too believe many will either not vote, or annul their vote, as at the moment, no candidate (emerging as front runners) seems to have convinced the people they are a viable option....at the moment, it's still a search for the least worse...

    Jun 13th, 2018 - 03:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    Lula did offer to withdraw his candidacy if the PT wanted someone else to stand, but he may have known or suspected they'd refuse.

    It would seem normal enough for a party to have radical and moderate wings, except with 30 parties already I'm surprised they haven't just split. Guess they do have the same advantages as in all countries that a bigger party can be better known and more powerful, and maybe some members have left to form their own parties in the past?

    We're so old fashioned in voting in the UK - we still mark an x on a paper ballot, I doubt it's much changed since 1872. I don't think I'd trust electronic voting though. If anyone complains about the paper votes you can go back and check them, but if someone hacks the voting machine or the manufacturer rigs it, is there any way to know?

    “it's still a search for the least worse”

    That's sadly common in all countries, but despite having so many choices, your options are particularly terrible in Brazil. I wouldn't know who to vote for either.

    Jun 13th, 2018 - 06:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @DT:

    REF: “I wouldn't know who to vote for either”:

    Since all [or perhaps almost all - perhaps]; have been milking the country one way or another, whoever is finally elected; is really not all that important! He/She is likely to keep-up with the trend anyway [each & every way]!
    REF:
    http://www.robsonpiresxerife.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Charge-062.jpg

    Jun 13th, 2018 - 11:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    “Lula did offer to withdraw his candidacy if the PT wanted someone else to stand, but he may have known or suspected they'd refuse”.

    Right on ! Lula would never offer to withdraw his candidacy if he thought someone might take him up on it....it's just a show, to impress his fanatical followers what a “magnanimous fellow” he is... He offers to withdraw it, the party does not accept and he emerges stronger than before...only idiots can't see through his tactics.

    In the past, quite a few of the smaller parties were formed by members of others, looking to be the bosses of their own...AFAIK, only the PT has two (clearly) opposing wings....the other three radical, left-wing parties - PCdoB, PSOL, Solidariedade - are all united behind the PT's radical wing. Don't think they'd split up, would weaken both current and new party.

    Marking an x on the ballot is without a doubt an assurance that would limit possible fraud, besides, the electronic voting has been denounced by experts as being subject to manipulation....doubt the politicians have any interest in debating this as it would mean more transparency.

    Jun 14th, 2018 - 08:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    According to what I read Lula moved significantly towards the centre by the time he was elected, so I suppose the more radical wing represents the original views of the party. I also read in an article that both the PSDB and the PMDB have moved to the right during the PT's years in office. It's possible that the PT's move into the centre pushed them right-wards in order to distinguish themselves, but it basically said the younger members now are quite different from those in power during FHC's presidency, which would represent a less-obvious division in those parties.

    If PCdoB, PSOL and Solidariedade are united behind the PT's radical wing, why don't they just join with the PT? Wouldn't that strengthen them all significantly while also pulling the PT in the direction they want it to go?

    Paper ballots don't prevent fraud by themselves, just one type of it:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11560017/Postal-voting-fraud-is-easy-electoral-commissioner-says.html

    And I have still never had to show ID in order to register to vote or to cast my ballot, but I think they may have made it necessary for postal votes since the events in the article above. With all the info the government has access to now, it should be relatively easy to cross-check the voter registrations and throw up suspicious cases for investigation. I wonder if they do that? (Could be a good business opportunity if not...)

    You have a national ID card in Brazil, right? Do you have to carry it around with you at all times?

    Jun 14th, 2018 - 10:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    Jair Bolsonaro has a slate of candidates that are in total either pseudo military i.e. firefighters or actual military.

    Jun 16th, 2018 - 02:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0

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