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IMF in April.Hyperinflation warning.

Monday, March 25th 2002 - 21:00 UTC
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An International Monetary Fund delegation will be arriving early April in Buenos Aires to continue working in a program to specifically boost exports and provide funds for social aid, according to Argentina officials, following a meeting of President Eduardo Duhalde with IMF Managing Director, Horst Koehler in Monterrey, Mexico.

"Everything in OK", said president Duhalde after the meeting. However and contrary to official optimism, in Buenos Aires last Friday the US dollar reached its highest level since 1991, $ 3,15 for one US dollar, equivalent to a 68% devaluation since January 6th.

"We've just began the second phase of the talks, which is to build a program that puts an end to the current instability and helps us solve economic and social problems. So far no timetable and no lump numbers have been mentioned", said a spokesman for president Duhalde.

Apparently during the meeting that lasted over hour and a half, president Duhalde admitted that "nobody believes Argentina, nobody trusts Argentine numbers".

Mr. Duhalde in the meeting was accompanied by Jorge Remes Lenicov, Economy Minister and Carlos Ruckauf, Foreign Affairs Minister. On the IMF side, together with Mr. Koehler, Thomas Dawson, Head of International Relations and Mr. Anoop Singh, who headed the last IMF mission to Argentina.

Cut off from international credit after defaulting its foreign debt, the Duhalde administration is desperate to reach an agreement with multilateral credit organizations.

However Argentina given its recent record lacks sufficient credibility and is spite of pressure from other Latinamerican leaders and organizations, the Bush administration is still insisting in "drastic reforms".

The last IMF mission to Argentina headed by Mr. Singh insisted that Argentina must put an end to the proliferation of provincial currencies and bonds with no backing (fourteen in total), plus ensure legal guarantees for investors, bankers and private property in general.

Argentina's economy is expected to keep contracting during 2002, anywhere between 5 and 9% of GDP, while unemployment could reach a historic 30%. During February industrial production dropped 15% compared to a year ago, but was only 1,2% below January 2002.

Although dismal, Argentine officials believe it represents a considerable slowing down of the general collapse.

Hyperinflation warning

Outstanding Argentine economists warned that the country runs the risk of hyperinflation if trust in the local currency is not restores. Last Friday the US dollar sold al 3, 15 pesos in Buenos A

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