Latinamerica economy is forecasted to grow 2% in 2003 given the improvement in world trade conditions, easier access to credit and the significant improvement of the Argentine economy, according to the latest release from the United Nations Economic Commission on Latinamerica, Cepal.
"Following a recessive cycle began in 2001 the region has retaken a moderate path of growth which should turn into a regional growth in the range of 2% for 2003", reads the report from Cepal main office in Santiago de Chile.
However Cepal also points out that political and economic uncertainties persist, among which it mentions erratic oil prices and the meagre growth prospects in the industrialized countries.
The report stresses that access to money markets has improved given the drop in region-risk particularly since Brazil has kept to orthodox policies ensuring the sustainability of its foreign debt.
Argentina has performed better than expected and is forecasted to grow 4% in 2003, the highest of the region together with Peru.
At the other end is Venezuela where a 10% contraction of its GDP is anticipated and Uruguay and Paraguay that are still suffering the effects of the regional crisis and will experience a negative growth of 2 and 3%.
Brazil is expected to keep to its modest recovery reaching 1,8% in 2003 following the 1,5% of 2002. Brazil's economy boost comes from exports because the domestic market will actually remain stagnant or suffer a modest contraction.
Prospects for other countries of the region are: Chile 3,5%; Colombia 2%; Mexico 2,4$, Nicaragua and Panama 1,5% and Bolivia and Ecuador 2%.
Finally Cepal indicates that in 2002 the regional economy contracted 0,6%, completing what is defined as "half a lost decade", when per capita income in the region dropped significantly and the fast growing economies lost their dynamism.