MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Menem from favorite to underdog.

Former Argentine president Carlos Menem this Sunday admitted for the first time that he could be defeated in the run off for the presidential election of next May 18. So far Mr. Menem had never admitted loosing an election and had anticipated that in the first round of April 27 he would win by an ample margin of at least ten points.

Mr. Menem actually managed 24,2% of the vote and governor Nestor Kirchner, who's supported by caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde, 22%.

"If all works out fine on May 18 I'll be the next Argentine president, if not I will dedicate myself to look after my child", said Mr. Menem in a long interview published this Sunday in the Buenos Aires daily "La Nación".

Mr. Menem, 72, is currently married with a former Chilean beauty queen Cecilia Bolocco, 38, who apparently is pregnant following a special treatment in a Santiago clinic.

Most opinion polls so far indicate that Mr. Menem who ruled Argentina for two consecutive periods, 1989/1999, will be defeated by an ample margin by governor Kirchner. Polls indicate a 55/60% vote for Mr. Kirchner and 26/30% for Mr. Menem.

"Mr. Kirchner is going to win with a considerable margin. The tendency is clear and should remain so for the next fifteen days. It looks like the Argentine electorate is ready to say farewell to Mr. Menem, recognizing him as a historic figure", said Eduardo Fidanza an Argentine political analyst.

However Mr. Menem has never lost an election in his more than thirty years political career, including when he became president for the first time in 1989 against all odds. In this last election he also managed a spectacular comeback since 16 months ago he had to spend 170 days under house arrest accused of arms smuggling during his ten years tenure, (the charges were finally dropped by the Supreme Court), and most analysts considered him definitively with no chances in active politics.

But so far Mr. Menem has not managed control of the initiative of the second round: Mr. Kirchner has refused a public debate; his "new faces" team did not have the expected impact and the night of the celebration April 27, quiet a few of the "old" questioned faces allegedly linked to corruption claims re emerged in Mr. Menem's headquarters.

"I'm not a janitor", reacted Mr. Menem when he was asked about these characters all of them spotlighted by the press.

But Mr. Kirchner also has to convince the Argentine electorate that he has government experience (he's the governor of a province with a population of 200,000 and rich in oil and fishery licences), and above all that he's not the front man for caretaker president Duhalde, possibly Mr. Menem's staunchest political rival

. Mr. Menem's strategy for the first electoral round was to constantly preach an inevitable landslide victory that ensured him the presidency without a runoff. After April 27 his strategy has him as the underdog fighting the "puppet" candidate of a government that impoverished the Argentine people as never in history and that is appealing to all sorts of tricks and official funds to impede his third term.

The Argentine electorate seems inclined to support the current mild recovery that Mr. Kirchner represents, based on the promised continuity of Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna who in the last ten months managed to bring some stability to Argentina's social and financial chaos following the collapse of the previous elected president Mr. De la Rúa administration, international default and the melting of the economy.

Mercosur members are divided about the outcome, Uruguayan president Jorge Batlle openly supports Mr. Menem and in Brazil a more cautious Itamaraty Foreign Office source indicated that their favorite is "Mr. Kirchner, since he represents the continuity of the current stabilization program, that among other things mellowed trade disputes with Brazil, however we are willing to equally work with Mr. Menem".