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Preparing for a 60 US dollars oil barrel.

Tuesday, September 28th 2004 - 21:00 UTC
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World oil prices reached fresh records on Monday with US light crude poised to break 50 US dollars per barrel (U$S 49,64) following mounting fears about oil supply given growing tensions in Nigeria and the Middle East.

Devastating hurricanes in southern United States when oil demand keeps increasing and world reserves are at their lowest also fuelled prices, which according to New York analysts would soon top 50 US dollars per barrel, probably this week. In the long run oil could even peak to 60 US dollars per barrel, warned an American investment bank.

Oil traders said fears about political unrest in Nigeria oil producing region could cut or limit output with further pressure on prices. Shell and Agip have evacuated non essential personnel from the Nigeria delta where government forces are fighting insurgents.

Similarly, recent clashes between Saudi Arabian police and suspected Islamic militants have caused growing concern as well as the semi permanent disruption scene in war torn Iraq.

However OPEC's president Purnomo Yusgiantoro questioned the latest price surge saying that "this is not the price of the OPEC basket, but rather it's the price of US crude influenced by hurricane Ivan and other problems in other areas".

Hurricane Ivan has temporarily limited offshore production and refining activities in the Gulf of Mexico which is now 28% below its normal output of 1,7 million bpd.

To counterbalance the situation the US Energy Department took the unusual step of releasing some of the national stockpiles of crude to refineries.

Meantime investment bank Morgan Stanley cautioned its clients that oil prices could reach 60 US dollars the barrel, before they begin to drop.

"Price tendency on the long run indicates even higher prices", said the Morgan Stanley report which supports the statement saying that world oil demand, the highest in 24 years, is strangling production since only Saudi Arabia has some limited spare pumping capacity.

Oil prices so far this year have increased 50% and stand at all time record since 1983.

Categories: Mercosur.

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