MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Poll shows Uruguay’s ruling coalition repeating next October

Lacalle, Mujica and Bordaberry presidential hopefuls of the three main parties.

The Uruguayan ruling coalition could repeat in next October general election according to the latest public opinion poll released this week in Montevideo. Pollster Radar has the Broad Front of President Tabare Vazquez with a vote intention of 46.7% and the sum of the opposition parties with 40.1%.

The opposition is made up of the National Party, 31.6%; Colorado Party, 7.7% and the Independents, 0.8%. The poll was completed with 0.8% for “other parties”, 3.4% blank or null, 2% no vote and 7% whom did not know or would not reply.

The poll was taken between May 21 and 30, with 1.212 interviews covering all the country and asked to reply the simple question “if national elections were to be next Sunday, who would you vote for?”

Radar polls analyst Alain Mizrahi said that the ruling coalition has been recovering ground since last October and in the opposition only the National party has undergone a similar process but at a more modest rate.

According to the Radar opinion polls, the Broad Front vote intention increased 1.2 percentage points over last March; 4.7 percentage points over last December and 6.7 percentage points from October 2008.

The Partido Nacional advanced 0.2 percentage points over March and 2.4 over last October. The Partido Colorado on the other hand remained almost unchanged at 7.7%. The Colorados which since the return to democracy in Uruguay in 1984 have ruled during three five-year presidential mandates, have not recovered from the loss of 2004 when they barely managed 11%.

As to the coming June 28 party primaries to nominate presidential candidates for October’s general election, in the three main political forces leaderships are consolidating.

In the Broad Front former Agriculture minister Jose Mujica is clearly ahead with 54% vote intention against the 27% of his main adversary, former Economy minister Danilo Astori, and 8% for Marcos Carámbula, according to Radar. Compared to the previous March poll, Mujica advanced four points and Astori, one.

In the National party, former president Luis Alberto Lacalle has consolidated with 58% vote intention, while his main contender Senator Jorge Larrañaga has 32%.

Finally in the Colorado party, former Tourism minister Pedro Bordaberry is definitively consolidated as the leading presidential hopeful with 76% vote intention.