MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Peru April 10 presidential election: any of five candidates can make it to the run off

Ollanta Humala climbing and Toledo loosing ground

With less than three weeks to April 10 Peruvian presidential election the electorate remains volatile with no candidates assured a first round victory (50% plus one votes cast) or making it to the run off.

According to the latest opinion poll Ipsos-Apoyo published Sunday in Lima’s El Comercio, former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo’s lead narrowed as support for ultra nationalist opposition leader Ollanta Humala soared.

Toledo had 23% support, compared with 26% a week ago. Support for Keiko Fujimori, a congresswoman and daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, was unchanged from a week ago at 19%.

Humala, a former army lieutenant and ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, rose two percentage points to 17%. Three weeks ago he stood at 5%. Ipsos Apoyo said. Humala, 48, favours more state control of the economy and natural resources.

Former Finance Minister and much respected banker Pedro Pablo Kuczynski had 14% support, compared with 9% a week ago, and former Lima Mayor Luis Castañeda fell 3 percentage points to 14%.

Support for Humala and Kuczynski, 73, has been growing in Lima and other urban areas where they previously lagged behind the other main candidates, the poll shows.

The popular former mayor of Lima who until two months ago was leading the polls has been punished for a poor performance in television debates and the auditing of Town Hall finances by the new mayor, left wing Susana Villarán.

Toledo has been attacked where he is vulnerable: a very complicated personal life with too many excesses.

Ms Fujimori enjoys the solid support from a percentage of the electorate who remain faithful to her father Alejandro Fujimori (who ruled for two consecutive mandates) but was later imprisoned for human rights violations. He is remembered for his strong hand against the guerrillas and for having re-organized the Peruvian economy.

Kuczynski (PPK) has advanced mainly in middle class Lima (where his support doubled in two weeks) and among new voters with an intense social nets campaign.

The poll of 2,000 people from March 12 to 18 had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The poll included covered 5 of the 10 candidates running for the presidency.

The first round of voting is scheduled for April 10. A second round will be held on June 5 if no candidate wins more than 50% of the first-round vote.

Toledo, 64, would defeat all the main candidates but Castañeda in a hypothetical run-off vote, according to Ipsos Apoyo.

“What is certain now is that candidates will become ever more aggressive, particularly against those climbing fast and threatening the leaders”, said Alfredo Torres from Ipsos-Apoyo