Friday, May 25th 2012 - 20:44 UTC

Germany should exit the Euro and revalue its currency, suggests top economist

Germany should exit the Euro and revalue its currency as “damage control” to avoid the effects of contagion stemming from a Greek exit, which would cripple banks and trade in Europe, according to former Argentine Finance Secretary Guillermo Nielsen.

Guillermo Nielsen, a Greek exit would cripple banks and trade in Europe

Germany’s higher productivity warrants a higher, less competitive valuation for its currency, Nielsen said. A Greek exit would be more costly and threatens the solvency of the region’s banks, he insisted.

“The discussion so far has been framed by the predominant power in the region, Germany,” said Nielsen, named finance secretary in 2002, months after Argentina defaulted on 95 billion dollars of debt.

“Instead of searching for the truth, they continue to keep the discussions under politically correct guidelines. They need to break the standstill.”

A German exit would be easier to promote than a devaluation of the periphery and would help generate confidence, Nielsen said. Politically, it won’t be feasible for Germany to increase transfers to southern Europe.

Meanwhile, the rest of Europe needs to push through “radical change,” and Greece should issue paper bills to use as quasi-currency immediately, according to Nielsen.

“A cross between an I-owe-you and paper money would help bridge the funding gap and avoid Greece going down the drain,” said Nielsen. “Simultaneously, Greece should stop all movements of capital. They should have done that a long time ago”.
 

12 comments Feed

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1 skåre (#) May 26th, 2012 - 04:19 am Report abuse
As if anyone in their right mind would take advice from Guillermo Nielsen on running an economy.
2 expbrit (#) May 26th, 2012 - 09:00 am Report abuse
He may be a bit of a muppet but he is right this time.
Trouble is, if Germany leaves the eurozone there won't be any reason for most of the other members on that side of Europe to stay in, or for new countries to join.
After all, who is going to give/loan them loads-a-money if not Germany?
3 Ken Ridge (#) May 26th, 2012 - 09:34 am Report abuse
Advice from Arg who is on it's way down the pan, who still owes defaulted debt...

I don't think so!!

I would rather take advice from Somaliland first.
4 skåre (#) May 26th, 2012 - 09:49 am Report abuse
@expbrit

He is a lot of a muppet and he is entirely wrong. The sort of moves he is suggesting would instantly kill the market for German exports and push Germany into a recession the likes of which it hasn't seen since the aftermath of WWI.
5 expbrit (#) May 26th, 2012 - 10:20 am Report abuse
@4

The rights and wrongs of wrong and right are just a question of perception. :)

I'm not saying it would be good for Germany.
6 skåre (#) May 26th, 2012 - 11:02 am Report abuse
@expbrit

I couldn't give a shit about Germany .. I am more concerned about the disastrous effect such a German recession would have on Norway, Denmark and the UK :)
7 tobias (#) May 26th, 2012 - 01:20 pm Report abuse
Germany cannot “revalue”, it is doing well know with a cheap Euro but not to throw confetti around. If the Euro went up, it would slow Germany.

And remember, IF the every country around Germany started printing franks, guilders, liras, pesetas, and devalued, Germany would suffer a massive instantaneous loss of competitivity, they would become prohibitively expensive and the economy would fall into a deep, deep recession. They woudn't export and they would be flooded by cheaper goods.

Either they would have to massively devalue themselves, and Europe gets into a “race to the bottom” spiral (since the central countries devaluing would mean the Pound and the Scandinavians would be forced to do so as well), or they would have to take big proteccionist measures and tariffs which would lead to a huge trade war intra-Europe.

For Germany, the current status is the least worst solution.
8 Xect (#) May 26th, 2012 - 04:07 pm Report abuse
Good post Tobias.
9 ChrisR (#) May 26th, 2012 - 06:28 pm Report abuse
So if tobias is correct, and I for one think there is a lot of merit in what he has posted, what does that really tell us about the confidence behind the Euro itself.

Probably what we all knew from the beginning: there was not any apart from the Europhobes and the non-elected masters of the EU.
10 briton (#) May 26th, 2012 - 06:51 pm Report abuse
The UK should get out , fast
11 Fido Dido (#) May 28th, 2012 - 01:19 am Report abuse
Indeed Tobias.
youtu.be/NHjLO_cw5iE
The average German people hates it and punishing Merkel of what's going on but the “elite” loves the chaos/cheap Euro. I'm glad that finally that one of main discussions in Holland are about leaving the Euro, something I and many Dutch citizens never voted for “directly”.
12 ChrisR (#) May 28th, 2012 - 11:57 am Report abuse
11 Fido Dido

I thought you were Brasilian?

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