Wednesday, September 19th 2012 - 06:05 UTC

Argentine economy to expand 1% this year, according to private estimates

The Argentine economy is expected to grow 1% this year with manufacturing activity virtually stagnant, according to the head of a leading economic consultancy agency in Buenos Aires who nevertheless admits that the government stats “will probably show a better performance”.

The dollar clamp has virtually frozen the real estate and housing markets

“Manufacturing is down from a year ago, for example basic metals and refining, and overall there will be zero expansion in manufacturing in 2012 and probably 1% for GDP”, said economist Orlando Ferreres who attributed the current situation to three main causes.

“Brazil is bearish and its demand of Argentine manufactured goods is down, the drought meant lower than expected soybean and corn crops and the dollar clamp has almost paralyzed the construction industry”, explained Ferreres.

Because of its long experience with high inflation, the Argentine real estate market functions with US dollars and the severe limitations of holding, saving and trading with the greenback imposed by the Cristina Fernandez administration has virtually frozen the housing market.

According to his consultancy Economic Activity Index, the Argentine GDP in August suffered an annual contraction of 0.5%, although the index was up 0.9% in August compared to July.

The overall slowing down of the Argentine economy according to economist Ferreres contrasts with the optimistic forecast for the 2013 budget elaborated by the administration of President Cristina Fernandez and which this week begins to be discussed in Congress.

The Argentine government estimates the economy to expand 4.4% in 2013, with inflation reaching 9% in the twelve months and the dollar trading at an average of 5.10 Pesos. Currently at the official exchange rate the US dollar trades at 4.65 Pesos but in the parallel market at 6.45 Pesos.

Likewise revenue is expected to grow parallel to inflation and the trade surplus is estimated to reach 13 billion dollars in the twelve months.

The government will keep to its policy of cancelling sovereign debt with central bank reserves and will continue to absorb government offices cash surpluses with bonds to face expenditures.

On more specific issues there is expectation regarding minimum values for taxing income and assets given the high level of inflation.

33 comments Feed

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1 Iron Man (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 06:23 am Report abuse
Which likely means that in the real world, as opposed to Argentina's 'official statistics', they will be in recession next year. With no dollars, rampant inflation, the money printing presses working round the clock, no-one to turn to for a loan....need I go on?

At what point do they realise their economic policies are a complete failure and try something else? When the people properly see the mess they are in the pot banging from the other night will seem like a lullaby to Christina.
2 Britworker (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 09:16 am Report abuse
What a disaster. The cliff edge has got to be getting closer.
3 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 10:17 am Report abuse
They need to make some serious changes to their reporting or on top of all this, IMF will censure them and that will mean no international trade, which means the last avenue for dollars will be closed.
4 KretinaK (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 10:21 am Report abuse
The only thing expanding in Argentina right now, is CFK's pocketbook, her cronies corruption scandales and of course CFKs scrotum-turkey neck!
5 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 01:33 pm Report abuse
Without IMF I don't think anyone can insure trade goods either buying or selling from Argentina. So I'm guessing their Soy will be worth about 1/3 on the Int'l market like Iran's oil.
She really has not thought this through...
6 British_Kirchnerist (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 02:23 pm Report abuse
Still more than Britain right?!
7 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 02:55 pm Report abuse
I agree yankee and Soy's outlooks relating to argentina is not that good considering that late summer rains in the USA started the downward trend in soy futures.
8 Iron Man (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 03:31 pm Report abuse
More evidence of how CFK's economic policies are helping Argentina:
9 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 04:05 pm Report abuse
The trolls here will try to have you beleive that does not matter because it is for the rich anyway.
10 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 04:48 pm Report abuse
7. It is pretty had to plant anything when your land is under a few feet of water! You can use a canoe in parts of BA and the Province!
I wouldn't hope for a banner year in Soy from Argentina one more year like the last one will probably bankrupt most of the farmers.
11 Pirat-Hunter (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 06:28 pm Report abuse
This is why we Argentines loves CFK. It's sad that most english people don't even understand CFK and never will. For this reason never take any english serious regarding your country. Chances are that they will repeat what their handlers say, there is no independent thinking, there is no thinking for that matter,.
12 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 06:42 pm Report abuse
Lol that's hilarious coming from a cyber K troll createad in a la campora test tube with sperm from fatsimo the fat fuck kirchner and an egg from ass lips.
13 Brit Bob (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 06:58 pm Report abuse
Taken from BA Herald 19.9.12

Moody's Investment Service Agency has downgraded Argentina's outlook from stable to negative stating that it was due to risky economic policies* along with the lack of confidence in official statistics **. Moody's assured that it could cut the country's ratings to Caa if its decisions affect the economy and its debt.

* number one protectionist country in the World
** telling lies about inflation and growth prospects
14 Pirat-Hunter (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 07:57 pm Report abuse
We Argentines demand Argentina to move from papers currency to gold coins. And to ignore all english ignorant fools. Thanks everyone but outsiders opinion is not worth taking into account. Why don't you all worry about the EU and greece who really really need your help more then Argentina, since Argentina didn't even ask for it.
15 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:03 pm Report abuse
Pirat, Curious as to what the denomination of coins would be if they're gold. What is the smallest one you think they should have?
16 ProRG_American (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:09 pm Report abuse
Actually, it will be more like 5%. It expanded by 1% in 2010 and no one yelled fowl.
17 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:11 pm Report abuse
Fowl? No one yelled bird? Yeah you are from the USA. Idiot.
18 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:33 pm Report abuse
sussie is think old turkey neck.
19 ProRG_American (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:36 pm Report abuse
Thanks for the correction“yankeeboy”. We Americans do make keyboard errors sometimes do we?
I don't understand how you can treat fowl, ooops, foul le our aranguage. I guess that you are a Brittard in disguise.
20 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:46 pm Report abuse
OMG where an m24 when you need one.
21 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 08:48 pm Report abuse
typos are wrong letters not wrong use of words try again RG.
22 Pirat-Hunter (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 09:15 pm Report abuse
#15 1/100 of a once for a 1 gold peso.
5/100 of a once for 5 gold pesos.
10/100 of once for 10 gold pesos
20/100 of an once for 20 gold pesos.
50/100 of an once for 50 gold pesos.
and one once for 100 pesos.
23 GastonBaires (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 09:27 pm Report abuse
Who is saying this…? LOL
Every neo liberal “consultant” Who is definitely against Argentina is a news here!
In Argentina even TN which is part of Clarin is saying something else.
MP where do you find news that doesn’t exist???
24 yankeeboy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 09:46 pm Report abuse
22. So the smallest denomination you will have with your gold coins is U$17.67 or currently P$ 111 is that the new baseline price for everything in the country?
You are truly retarded.
25 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 19th, 2012 - 11:29 pm Report abuse
How the hell is MP.......Yankee lugging gold to buy. First are they going to buy mining and excavating machinery from the USA to get all this gold? lol

Opps note to PH

develop a plan to buy equipment from the USA
26 ManRod (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 12:46 am Report abuse
Argentina is really f*cked up... I feel pity for them, even they're quite saturated with morons, there are still good people suffering this...
27 GastonBaires (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 02:36 am Report abuse
If Argentina is f*u the UK is dead.
Wake up poeple!!!
28 ProRG_American (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 06:23 pm Report abuse
Here you gooo...... the facts

Argentine Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino says the country's inflation will remain at just 11 percent next year, about a third of what private analysts say the real annual inflation rate is in the South American country.
Lorenzino also says the peso will decline just 9 percent in value against the dollar as the economy rebounds to a healthy 4.4 percent in growth.
29 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 07:19 pm Report abuse
There's goes the censure from IMF.....and no more international currency to trade with.....bye...bye.....bye....argentina. Why they bothered to wait is beyond me. The IMF pulls the rug.....there goes any remote possibilty of anything coing out of Chevron.
30 yankeeboy (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 09:23 pm Report abuse
28. They budgeted 5+% growth for this year and they're negative, budgeted 9% inflation and its 25+%! So I wouldn't put too much faith in their prognosticating.

Cap, Did you see CFK got a little slap down again today? She announce an Apple supplier setting up factories in Arg in July but the ended up choosing Brazil instead? Another bullet train shot down! I don't' understand why they don't keep their traps shut until the deal is done. It is really embarrassing.
31 GastonBaires (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 10:29 pm Report abuse

America invented wars, kill people, send their own citizens die, for a undignified Purpose and above all attempts fails.
How do you call that ?
32 Captain Poppy (#) Sep 20th, 2012 - 11:24 pm Report abuse
Americans invented wars? What was the Sumer and Akhad war in 2700BC?
I did not read that, but there would be not profits building in argentina because of the policies.
33 Pete Bog (#) Sep 22nd, 2012 - 07:13 pm Report abuse
@31 Gasbag
Argentina started a war in 1982, killing people and sending their citizens to die for an undignified purpose(trying and failing to bully 2000 people who had never lifted a rifle against them) and above all attempts failed as the forces of democracy drove them back home, where Argentine soldiers were treated like scum by their own people on their return.

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