Saturday, November 10th 2012 - 02:35 UTC

China forecasted to become world’s largest economy, ahead of the US in 2016

China is projected to overtake the US to become the world's largest economy as early as 2016, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released on Friday.

OECD Secretary General Gurria is also cautious about the report: “no forecasts set on stone”

The report, “Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long-term Growth”, uses a new model for projecting growth in the 34 OECD member states and the eight major non-OECD G20 economies over the next 50 years.

“The United States is expected to cede its place as the world's largest economy to China, as early as 2016. India’s GDP is also expected to pass that of the United States over the long term,” the report published on Friday said.

China is also expected to surpass the Euro zone “in a year or so.” Another Asian giant, India, will “surpass Japan in the next year or two and the Euro area in about 20 years.”

By 2025, the combined GDP of China and India will exceed that of the major seven (G7) OECD economies.

“The shifting balance of long-term global output will lead to corresponding improvements in living standards,” the report says.

By 2060, people in the poorest countries will see their income per capita quadruple, and the increase could even be seven-fold in China and India.

However OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said, “None of these forecasts are set in stone.”

“We know that bold structural reforms can boost long-term growth and living standards in advanced and emerging-market economies alike.”

16 comments Feed

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1 Guzz (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 02:48 am Report abuse
Stop this farce before it's too late, nobody wants you to live what you offer the rest...
2 Ayayay (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 02:51 am Report abuse
Good Job China!! Now, the Chinese make $3k a year and the U.S. ppl $22k, but it will be looooo-oovely to be like Singapore, rich but not taking the heat of 'world's biggest'. They'll continue to extract all the resources from Argentina with no humanitarian aid, but that's a CHOICE :)

Good job on lifting up, China
3 LightThink (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 10:48 am Report abuse
China has 12,5 $ trillions GDP right now,
possible ,it pass US over in next few years.

more than 300 millions labour force they have.
but US has ~ 160 millons.

not surprise ,they were already super power during 18 th century.
4 Britworker (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 11:10 am Report abuse
Capitalism is a new thing for China, they are about the most corrupt country on the planet, just after Argentina. Not sure they are capable of stearing the ship away from the rocks for too long, but time will tell.
5 LightThink (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 11:23 am Report abuse
Corruption is valid for all countries.

the corruption is the lech part of the economy.
6 briton (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 10:49 pm Report abuse
you say,
china was a super power in the 1700s, we dont think so....
7 Fido Dido (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 11:20 pm Report abuse
“china was a super power in the 1700s, we dont think so....”

China was a super power, now 2012 it's a superpower again.

Britain was a super power, now it's nothing (just a lap dog of the US that is broke). Meanwhile keep thinking...
8 briton (#) Nov 10th, 2012 - 11:30 pm Report abuse
Anti brit and yanks again.

China may be,
But Argentina is defiantly not..
9 Pugol-H (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 02:13 pm Report abuse
This report assumes (we all know what an “assumption” is) things continue as they are.

The one thing in life that is certain is that things change.

China is already the world’s largest polluter. The world ecosystem will not survive much more development by the likes of China, India and Brazil.

Sensible countries need to start planning to survive the coming storm, and stop chasing the illusion of indefinite growth.
10 Guzz (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 02:56 pm Report abuse
USA pollutes about 3 times more than China in carbondioxide emission per capita...
11 Pugol-H (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 05:39 pm Report abuse
@ Guzz
Once again are you are completely missing the point, in terms of total volume (the only way to measure these things) China is the world’s biggest polluter.

So by the time their economy catches up to the US in terms of size, what will the cost be in terms of pollution for the world.

And when India joins them, what will the cost be in terms of pollution for the world.

Brazil, S Africa, Indonesia etc etc.

A relatively small change in rainfall patterns, a monsoon for example, will put a large dent in some countries populations, as well as collapsing economies never mind any economic growth.

The reality is that the climatic changes we are increasingly seeing, just ask New York, render any such future economic forecasts meaningless.

This forcast assumes that things can continue as they are, they cannot.
12 Guzz (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 06:22 pm Report abuse
Well, this would mean you need to drastically reduce your pollutioning, as every country should have their quote based on population ;)
13 Pugol-H (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 06:35 pm Report abuse
@ 12 Guzz
You’re not listening Guzz, “ in terms of total volume (the only way to measure these things)”. Nothing else makes any difference to the problem.

Population or pollution, Britain is tiny in the modern world, it’s not us that has to cut anything, wouldn’t make any difference if we did, our contributions are just “pissing in the Nile”.

However if “we as a planet” don’t correct things, then things will correct themselves.

Economic forecasts, out the window, end of!
14 Guzz (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 07:24 pm Report abuse
Read the Kyoto agreement and see for yourself what yourselves have agreed to and for what reasons.
15 briton (#) Nov 11th, 2012 - 08:17 pm Report abuse
They com and go.
go and come.

one day, they may send massive containers straight into the sun, and burn it.
just a thought.
16 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 14th, 2012 - 10:44 pm Report abuse

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