Tuesday, November 20th 2012 - 01:40 UTC

Uruguay admits inflation is “decisively much higher” than expected

Inflation is a priority and is “decisively much higher than what authorities and public opinion would like” admitted Mario Bergara, Uruguay’s Central bank president during the opening on Monday of a two-day annual economic conference.

Central bank president Mario Bergara: “inflation is the priority”

“At the moment we are deploying all our Central bank batteries together with other economic policy resources”, said Bergara. Inflation in October reached a twelve months’ 9.11% very close to the two digits that could trigger a round of tougher salary negotiations and causing even more disarray in an already tight labour market.

At the moment the agreement with the unions is that there is an only annual round of salary negotiations as long as inflation in the twelve months remains at 10% or below.

“We have applied monetary measures; we have systematically increased the reference interest rate for over a year and a half and we have implemented other orthodox tools from a macroeconomic perspective, plus non conventional measures such as direct negotiations with those economic agents that contribute to the formation of prices (i.e., supermarkets)” insisted Bergara.

The central bank president said is was necessary to ensure the fundamentals which help make the prices system; inflation is a complex issue because it is made up of thousands and thousands of decisions. We must avoid bad news so that inflation is not taken into an escalation without any logic. Our duty is to act on those expectations that influence prices and act with caution”.

The latest data from Uruguay’s stats office, INE, anticipate that prices during October climbed 1.15%, which adds up to 7.95% in the last ten months and 9.11% in the last twelve months. The government’s target for this year is 6% to 8%.

Bergara also pointed out growing concern about the volatility of capital influx to the region. “These influxes have an impact on relevant variables, such as the foreign exchange rate which is very important for costs, production and exports”.

According to INE, the cost of a basic basket of food and beverage goods based on Market Average Prices reached in October, was 3.064 Pesos (approx 158 dollars) equivalent to an increase of 1.47% over September, 3.002 Pesos (approx 155 dollars).

Besides monetary tools, the Uruguayan government reached an agreement with the leading chain of supermarkets to have 200 items from the basic food basket (and included in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index) frozen until January first and similarly with public utility rates and public transport.

With these instruments Uruguay’s economic authorities believe they can keep official inflation below the two digit mark, which is essential for labour peace.
 

7 comments Feed

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1 Ayayay (#) Nov 20th, 2012 - 05:33 am Report abuse
Refreshing directness.
2 Trunce (#) Nov 20th, 2012 - 01:17 pm Report abuse
They should buy an Argie calculator and problem would be resolved.
3 ChrisR (#) Nov 20th, 2012 - 05:11 pm Report abuse
At least we get the truth here, albeit worse than was expected.

The problem of course is one of the governments own making:
1) failing to decimate (reduce by 10%) the overhead employed by government, year on year as is desperately necessary;
2) using the people from 1), after retraining into a useful productive person, in the new businesses coming to Uruguay;
3) utterly failing to keep in check the government monopolies such as ANCAP (no reduction in motor fuel prices in the last 22 months even though the spot price continues to fall), UTE, a price rise just before the government trumpeting the ‘freeze on prices’, OSE, leave water from broken mains for over a year and still not fixed – damages the roads, etc. ONLY ANTEL come out of this with anything like credibility – making financial allowance for forward spending whilst reducing broadband cost by a third and increasing speeds by third – well done to them;
4) failing to understand the commercial reality of operating a flag carrier for 3 million people, only a few of who would ever use it AND then cocking the auction of the second-hand planes up so badly they are the laughing stock of serious businessmen.

No, the government have to decide within the next few years, and the sooner the better, just what it is they are supposed to be doing. It WILL be crunch time very soon for smaller registered businesses who carry the world of regulation and taxes on their back.

Frankly, I would NEVER start a small business in Uruguay, you could never make it pay enough to justify the time spent and financial risk taken.
4 ynsere (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 09:48 pm Report abuse
Chris
I'm afraid ANTEL is also wanting, despite their heavy advertising. For instance, there are landline telephones in the Solymar area that have not been working since the storm in September. In cases where there is an associated broadband connection, this has also not been working.
5 ChrisR (#) Nov 24th, 2012 - 12:15 am Report abuse
4 ynsere

That is nothing short of disgraceful at least I have never had to wait beyond a couple of days.

But I bet they still get a bill for the standing charges. :o)
6 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 24th, 2012 - 12:30 am Report abuse
Seems inflation is a regional, not just Argie, problem then. And going down by all accounts, now Brazil is picking up...
7 ChrisR (#) Nov 24th, 2012 - 11:00 am Report abuse
@6 BSK

FFS!

Can't you even make a pretence of understanding what is going on in Uruguay?

If not, STFU.

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