Wednesday, November 21st 2012 - 20:51 UTC

Argentina with the world’s fourth highest inflation, says private bank

Argentina is the country with the world’s fourth highest inflation, behind Sudan, South Sudan and Byelorussia, according to a report from a leading Argentine bank from the City of Buenos Aires.

Inflation expectations have also risen and for November reached an annualized 30%

The bank takes into account the so called Congress-index based on private estimates and which jumped 1.8% in October and very close to an annual 25%.

In a world where even in emerging economies inflation has been successfully controlled, Argentina for the sixth year running is among the ten nations with the highest inflation in the world, having climbed five positions from 2011, says the report from Banco Ciudad.

The official inflation in Argentina last month was up 0.8% and 10.2% in the past twelve months, according to the national stats office Indec, which is greatly discredited both at home and overseas including the World Bank and the IMF that has questioned the estimates.

The report also points out that inflation in Argentina is already above that of other countries which last year were at a higher level such is the case of Malawi, Ethiopia, Burundi, Yemen and Venezuela. Furthermore Argentina’s index is almost five times that of most of its neighbours: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru which have inflation rates ranging from 3% to 6%.

“Sustained inflation is causing distortions in the economy which as can be seen are as, or more burdensome that inflation itself. The exchange appreciation is beginning to erode the profitability of exports sectors and thus the creation of jobs begins to suffer the consequences”, adds the report which also points to the freezing of public utility rates and the government’s policy of increasing subsidies as contributors to the overall distortions.

The Banco Ciudad report follows the monthly survey from Torcuato Di Tella University, UTDT, which shows that Argentina’s 12-month inflation expectations rose to 30%, up from 27% in October. While dipping in October, inflation expectations in each of the previous seven months had come in at 30%, UTDT, said in its closely watched monthly report Monday.

On an average basis, the response rose to 37.4% in November, from 35.1% in October.

UTDT report was based on a nationwide survey of 1,200 people by consultancy Poliarquia Consultores in early November.

Scepticism has surrounded Argentina’s official statistics since early 2007, when then-President Nestor Kirchner replaced long-serving Indec professional and much respected staff with political appointees.

Official and private-sector forecasts of inflation quickly diverged following the shake-up. The administration of President Cristina Fernandez regularly denies charges that it manipulates Indec economic data, but even loyal trade unions and the courts take as reference the Congress index.

The Argentine government has gone so far as to fine and bring criminal charges against private-sector economists who question official data. That has led the opposition Congress members to publish the anonymous private estimates to shield the economists from prosecution.

53 comments Feed

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1 LEPRecon (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:01 pm Report abuse
Oops, CFK's model still continues to drag Argentina to the scrap heap.

If she carry's on the way she's going Argentina will have the worlds highest inflation numbers.
2 briton (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:02 pm Report abuse
Mind you, the shelves look full.
3 Ayayay (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:02 pm Report abuse
Thats a clean & spacious store (:
4 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:05 pm Report abuse
It's Mendoza, the province with most supermarkets and hypermarkets per capita.
5 briton (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:09 pm Report abuse
and the one with less people in
6 txiki (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:14 pm Report abuse
Every day, your argentine Peso has, well, less “peso”.

7 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:19 pm Report abuse

Well, duh, we have like
3 Jumbos (Rosario 1, Cordoba doesn't even have one)
3 Carrefour
2 Libertad
3 Wal-Mart (Rosario has none)
1 Makro

and we are the home province of Vea, so we are stuffed to the nose in them. Mendoza is the only city to hace all major players (except Coto, but they are east coast brand, and La Anonima which is Patagonia and small cities only).

Cordoba and Rosario which are larger cities have fewer stores.

And we are still getting more as there are four malls under construction. Now even the mountains to the west are starting to get developed.
8 briton (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:28 pm Report abuse
no more mountains, lots more stores,

but do you have the people with the money to fill these stores.
and are the developers going to make money.
9 War Monkey (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:29 pm Report abuse
7 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#)
Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:19 pm

And you must be so proud.
10 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:34 pm Report abuse

This is not China, no one is forcing the developers to build new middle-class neighborhoods or high-end countries towards the south or the west. And we are talking about developers from within Argentina, and from Chile, France, USA, Australia, Italy, Spain, etc. They can't be all wrong, coming from such different places, can they? There is a market because Mendoza's economy is strong and also because of ex-pats flowing in. (Tupungato being the prime example of a city taken over by foreigners).

Mendoza's government has always been opposed to building in the hillsides because of the fear of erosion and mudslides, as well as brushfires. But the developers are promising to build the infraestructure including roads, and water collectors to divert flash floods... not sure about that because we see the disaster that California has become with all those pretty homes on the hillsides.

And because these are higher end neighborhoods, because people now want to live in the hills with the views, or towards the south around the vineyards, the tax base grows so the gov caves in.

I think it's dicy to build on the hillsides, even if it is nice communities.
11 LEPRecon (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:36 pm Report abuse
@7 - Tobias

So what? My home town of less than 30,000 people have 7 supermarkets:

Marks and Spencer's
Kwik Save

It proves what exactly?

It doesn't stop Argentina's inflation rate being the forth highest in the world does it?

And when people can no longer get or afford the items in the shops what do you think will happen to them?
12 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:43 pm Report abuse

The ones I listed are hypermarkets. I didn't list the supermarkets (Vea, Atomo, etc). There's over 130 of those all over town.

First of all you have no way of proving the “4th highest inflation rate” (check mate), and 2nd in Mendoza people will afford to go to the markets crisis or no crisis.

That's part of the reason there is such a high concentration, in the 2001 crisis there were no riots in Mendoza because the economy has a good diversification and a good mix of agriculture, high-end wine, industry, and major tourism from ski resorts to wineries to the highest mountain outside the Himalayas... and if things get really shitty then the Chileans are nearby and they fill up the city if things are cheap (so we are lucky there I do admit).

Strong economy, people can afford the products here. We have almost no shantytowns remember.
13 LEPRecon (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 09:56 pm Report abuse
@12 - Tobias

Well we have an independent bank's report, which is far more reliable than INDEC, isn't it? So no, not check mate, not by a long shot.

Tell me, Tobias, if the peso becomes worthless because of Argentina's high inflation rate (ranging from 25-30%), and continues to rise because of CFK amazing economic model, do you really believe that Mendoza will be spared the fallout?

In the 2001 default, people had their savings in dollars to fall back on, and Argentina defaulted on its foreign debt.

This time, it's the people of Argentina whom the government will default on, after all they've 'stolen' their pensions and given them worthless bonds. The dollar clamp means that people haven't been able to turn their hard earned cash in dollars as a safety net. I know that you have never worked a day in your life, Tobias, but try to imagine what it would be like if the government turned up and took all your stuff and gave you a worthless piece of paper in return, with the vague promise that you may one day get some money back.

Argentina is heading down this road, Venezula can only bail you out for so long before you become too expensive for them to keep afloat. When this happens, and a loaf of bread costs 300 pesos, or even 3,000 pesos, do you really believe that people will have money to spend on frivolities?
14 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 10:04 pm Report abuse
If the pension funds were really stolen, if the bonds are really worthless, if I haven't worked a day in my life, if Venezuela, if a loaf a bread goes to 300 pesos, if 3,000 pesos... there are so many if's there I wonder if.... oops.

Mendoza produces many hard currency products (again, fine wine, tourism, oil, energy machinery, turbines, cranes, wind turbines, light airplanes, olive oil, organic fruits), so again, those are the sectors that are buffered by a hypothetical currency hyperdevaluation... the economies that get destroyed are those that rely on banking or services (like Buenos Aires City).
15 LEPRecon (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 10:20 pm Report abuse
@14 -Tobias

The economy that is destroyed will be Argentinas. If not one is buying products your production will grind to a halt.

And because of CFKs protectionist measures, other countries are reluctant to buy Argentinian, even your good buddies the Brazilians.

Face it, Tobias, if Argentina defaults again all of Argentina will feel it.

I honestly hope that you are right, because no one should have to suffer through that type of situation again, but CFK won't change her policies or even entertain the idea that she may be wrong.

Her hubris will be Argentina's undoing.
16 MaxAue (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 10:46 pm Report abuse
I left Argentina in June this year and payed back then 12 peso for a bag of Pepe rolling tobacco. Today it's 20 pesos. My math tells me it's a 66% increase in 6 months.
17 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 11:13 pm Report abuse
LEP when they stole the privately saved pension, they didn't get bonds, they got a new pension, nothing more. In reality they now have nothing because ANSES invested in YPF.
18 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 11:14 pm Report abuse

end of thread
19 Britworker (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 11:18 pm Report abuse
Yay, Argentina comes fourth at something. Keep reaching for the stars you will be number one in no time
20 ConCapt.Poppy is a Nigger (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 11:20 pm Report abuse
lady troy thin tets, again?
21 ProRG_American (#) Nov 21st, 2012 - 11:26 pm Report abuse
I love the scenes where the redcoats are getting battered especially in 2:01 where the redcoats are surrendering. Fits them well, just as in Buenos Aires in 1806 and 1807.
22 Pirate Love (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 12:00 am Report abuse
@24 yep, that will convince The Falklanders to become an argentine state, well done your a marvel of inbreeding.
23 Ayayay (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 12:12 am Report abuse
Organic fruits? *ears, perk one by one*

May I ask..WHERE are your farmer's markets, Nostrolldeuxus?!? I FIND..

i wanted to taste a fruit native to Argentina. I couldn't find, so now I have to come back.
24 Joe Bloggs (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 01:01 am Report abuse
12 whatever your name is at this moment

Having so many hyper-markets, does that mean they'll be ready for hyper-inflation?
25 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 01:34 am Report abuse
4th....they must be pissed, they are so close. If they keep assmouth in office much longer.....they will win the gold medal in this event! They deserve first place....that's for certain.
26 Ayayay (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 02:00 am Report abuse
Ok, not a LITTLE weird that they raise the people's airline fees so much, but only on LOCAL fares? 30% a year for the last two years-IMF lies!
27 yankeeboy (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 02:12 am Report abuse
14. I really don't know if you are stupid or trying to play a part? Do you think all of these export companies in Mendoza get U$ or pesos when they sell something.

THEY GET PESOS you dolt!

So yeah when ( not if) there is hyperinflation you are going down like the rest of the country.

Gosh what an incredible fool you are...
28 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 02:29 am Report abuse
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving.........I think my thanks is that I am an American....North
29 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 04:24 am Report abuse
@26 Ayayay

A fruit native to Argentina, you say?

Try “Sussie” LOL
30 toooldtodieyoung (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 07:44 am Report abuse
24 ConCapt.Poppy is a Nigger

Can somebody please, please, PLEASE get sussieUS BANNED from this forum...... I know she is a joke but she is not a funny one.
31 Spainexpat (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 08:20 am Report abuse
@33 I've reported him/her and I believe a few others have aswell. Hopefully the mods ban his/hers IP.
32 travellingscotsman (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 09:49 am Report abuse
@23 - Proar - the last time the Americans and British fought was in 1812 - and we kicked your miserable ass all the way back to the US from Canada!!!!
33 stick up your junta (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 10:19 am Report abuse
This justs gets better enjoy :-))))
Argentine Surrender Falklands War
34 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 10:20 am Report abuse
@34 Scotsman

ProARG “American” is South American, lives in Argie-land, and has never been out of LATAM, like Nostrildoofus has never left the fantasy kingdom of Mendosa.

ProARG is at his wit's end as to how to distract and antagonise Brits, and is spamming that post throughout MP.

BTW, @8Nostrildoofus, that “mall” looks photoshopped, it will never be built !

35 Anbar (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 10:22 am Report abuse
@11 “”So what? My home town of less than 30,000 people have 7 supermarkets:“””

I think you've kinda jumped down his throat for no reason here... he's just pointing out that the level of development and type of development is indicative of growth aimed at a specific social grouping (i.e. middle class) and that with the developers representing companies form all over the world it seems unlikely that they would all get their data wrong: in other words it must be seen to be a area of growth for that sector.

and i think his point was both well presented and even reason to draw a “so what” from it: it said what it said, no elaborate claims etc etc.
36 Orbit (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 11:15 am Report abuse
Looks like the order of the day remains the same for our paid contributors ... supermarkets, youtube and thin tets... not exactly inspired distraction plays.
37 LEPRecon (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 12:41 pm Report abuse
@32 - travellingscotsman

You also forgot to mention that we burned Washington D.C. to the ground too!

But that is, of course, history. Since then the US, UK and Canada have become very good friends and allies.

And none of your distraction methods actually distract people from the point of this thread, which is Argentina's increasing inflation rate.

@35 - Anbar

There's no need to defend Nostrall aka Tobias aka TTT.

He, as always, was trying to deflect from the fact that Argentina has a huge amount of inflation, that isn't going to get better.

He truly believes that if the rest of Argentina's economy collapses that Mendoza will somehow not be affected.

He then starts quoting about how many supermarkets etc.. that they have, almost as if the rest of the world don't have these things.

I just responded to that with a so what, everyone has them, and if inflation continues to increase that the people won't be able to buy goods because they can't afford them. I just tried to point out that it doesn't matter how many hypermarkets, supermarkets or malls you have if the people can't afford to shop there.

No customers would see the shops closing, making the shop employees unemployed, which will just add to the overall misery.

Tobias lives in his little bubble were everything is tickityboo and the bad things will just bypass Mendoza province completely.
38 Conqueror (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 01:45 pm Report abuse
@10 Wasn't CFK going to build 40,000 houses? Are these them?
@12 ALMOST no shantytowns? Thinking of declaring independence?
@14 According to research, Mendoza's economy depends in large part on selling things both to Chile and to other parts of argieland. So what happens when other parts of argieland can't afford your fruit and vegetables, your wine, the products of your mines?
@21 Can't see any pics of redcoats being “battered”. All the bodies seem to be American, or French. Did you know that Yankee Doodle is a BRITISH song? “To mock the disheveled, disorganized colonial ”Yankees“ with whom British officers served in the French and Indian War”. And the “Yanks” only got away with it because Britain was busy elsewhere.
39 Santa Fe (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 01:53 pm Report abuse
33 - love the bit when the CO tells the gurkhas that the RGs have surrendered, they look so disapointed :) they wanted to have some fun

great clip....a troll must to watch
40 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 02:08 pm Report abuse
#30 I've tried

Happy Thanksgiving Football and feast all day
41 Idlehands (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 02:45 pm Report abuse
The thing about the Gurkhas is that they are as elite as any unit in the world. They get hundreds of applicants for every available place so they are the best of the best. While they can't carry the same load as your average marine their endurance is second to none.

They wanted an opportunity to prove themselves and were incredibly disappointed to be left out.
42 Conqueror (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 04:41 pm Report abuse
Just for any argie bloggers that are contemplating calling Gurkhas “mercenaries” or denigrating them in some other way, don't bother. We've heard it. You're wrong. And there are a lot of Gurkhas stationed around where I live. I gather they are inclined to take insults somewhat personally!
43 agent999 (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 05:39 pm Report abuse
So back on topic
What Argentina's inflation rate ?
Surely all the information from INDEC must be true, after all CFK has told us it is - Banco Ciudad is a middle class institution that does not understand the true picture.
44 Ayayay (#) Nov 22nd, 2012 - 06:52 pm Report abuse
@40 Happy gobble gobble!!!!
45 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 04:43 pm Report abuse
Incredible that asslips kirchner is so corrosive that she can out pace Malawi, Ethiopia, Burundi, Yemen and Venezuela in a single year.

What will it take for the Argentines to get violent enough to remove the asshole of south america?

13 wraps on a hangmans noose.
46 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 04:50 pm Report abuse

CFK has a mandate till 2015. End of story.


But they will. Crises always bypass Mendoza due to our lower corruption, honoring of debts, diversified economy, and tourism that buffers any fall because we are near Chile (Santiago), and the Chileans love Mendoza, especially in those 1 in 20 year events when things get really cheap.
47 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 05:50 pm Report abuse
She has no mandate.....a mandate is an OVERWHELMING majority fool. Her real mandate will be hanging from her neck with 13 wraps a waxed sisal line. She should hang under the huge image of Evita. Read your consitiution for removal....impeachment did they have lead imbedded in the cerebellum as a reason to remove?
48 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 07:04 pm Report abuse
Code of Governance Part A, Article 2, section 34, paragraph 7, sub-section I, line 1(b), 12.1 reference 1:

“As ordained by the immanent and indefeasible powers of the popular democratic process under which the public servants of the Republic swear to faithfully engage office, and hitherto implicitly sovereign to this Article, it is thus accorded, expected, and required under penalty of official and legal inquiry of percontation and interrogation by peers, that he/she elected by the procedures outlined and in sections 7-31 wherewith such authority is bestowed to the elected by the republican and provincial assemblies through the desires of the electee, that the holder of the office of President of the Republic of the Federal Argentine State of provinces fulfill a 4 year term, and so protecting the integrity of the republic by providing a seamless quilt of governance resistant to the whims of rapid social development, of the fomented mob, or anent pretensions engendered by political rivaly, competition, or animus.”

End of story.
49 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 09:29 pm Report abuse
For oyu it is.......some of us are starting a new protest to oust her
50 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 23rd, 2012 - 09:34 pm Report abuse

So much for your north american democracy, hahahah. I always knew it was a joke.
51 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 24th, 2012 - 12:02 am Report abuse
as usual, you make little to no sense.......2015 may be in a few months for asslips kirchner
52 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 24th, 2012 - 01:35 am Report abuse
From the usual mercopress coverage you'd be surprised to learn its just 4th, not very first! And as the article says inflation is under control almost everywhere these days, so the “competition” for the title isn't what it was. Tbh there hasn't really been any kind of classic hyperinflation since Zimbabwe pulled back from the brink a few years ago
53 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 25th, 2012 - 08:41 pm Report abuse
What is the official date for Argentina's international default par duex....December 2nd?
How is YPF doing.....Oh, I see the sold 750 million peso bond in the local maket ( of cours international Argentina cann0t get anything anymore) to make 20%, in a world where bond rates are like 2%....tick tick tick tick

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