Wednesday, November 28th 2012 - 21:50 UTC

Chile and Mexico among the best performing members of OECD in next two years

Chile and Mexico will manage to a great extent to avoid the negative prospects from OECD members in the next two years. The half year report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates a serious weakening of activity in the Euro zone, the US and Japan, but the two OECD Latinamerican members as well as emerging power Brazil will have a contrasting performance.

Gurria has asked Mexican president elect Peña Nieto to implement much needed reforms

In the case of Chile and Mexico, the OECD report upped this year’s expectations fuelled by strong domestic demand, but for 2013 was less enthusiastic since exports to rich countries are expected to drop.

For the second year running Chile becomes the OECD member with the highest GDP expansion which this year will reach 5.2% compared to the 1.4% average. November’s estimate in 0.8 percentage points higher than last May’s forecast.

Likewise the Chilean economy will out perform in 2013, (4.6%) and in 2014 (5.4%) its peers from the “developed countries club” although the slower pace next year is attributed mainly to lesser exports to the Euro zone.

The OECD report underlines the good performance of the Chilean economy based on the strong domestic demand as real salaries have increased as well as new jobs with an unemployment rate that has dropped from an average 7.1% in 2011 to 6.5% this year.

Mexico’s GDP is poised to increase 3.8% this year, the third highest behind Chile and Turkey, mainly because of the notorious increase of productivity in the manufacturing sector which has helped the country recover its overseas markets’ share.

So close and dependent of the US economy and its slower activity next year, Mexico is forecasted to see growth limited to 3.3% in 2013, but will rebound to 3.6% in 2014 as the global economy recovers.

OECD Secretary general Angel Gurria has asked Mexico’s incoming president Enrique Peña Nieto who takes office on Saturday, to adopt structural reforms so that the positive prospects turn into an acceleration of the economy and the creation of jobs.

Gurria said that given current circumstances Mexico needs to increase the GDP at a dynamic rate so as to generate 1.5 million jobs annually, in clear reference to the population’s mostly young structure which anticipates significant incorporations to the labour market.

In the chapter referred to the large emerging economies, OECD points out that Brazil will be jumping from its 1.5% anaemic growth of this year to 4% in 2013 and 4.1% in 2014. This is attributed to the massive fiscal and monetary stimuli implemented by the administration of President Dilma Rousseff together with a depreciation of the Real, the upsurge of the global economy and the benefits from the organization in the coming years of the World Cup, 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.

OECD also points out that Brazil is the emerging power less exposed to the negative evolution of exports to the Euro zone in the midst of a prolonged recession.
 

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1 Pirate Love (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:08 pm Report abuse
And here come Crustina with her demands to UNASUR to take all this away from her successful regional competitors and persuade them to reject foreign trade and investment, not a chance Trout mouth her country is being left behind and there is sweet F.A she can do but cry, while her people bang pans. Gooooo Argentina! she still gets my vote.
2 Condorito (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:45 pm Report abuse
Pirate Love,
Why did you have to spoil this good news item with the mention of her name.
...
This thread should be kept clean and dedicated entirely to applauding us hard working Chileans who have managed to increased our economic growth through the largest global downturn in a generation.

We should be thanking the political parties of all colours for maintaining the fiscal discipline required to make this happen through good times and tough times.

We used to pat ourselves on the back when we out performed others in the region. But this is the OECD no less. It is very good news indeed for all who think hard work, vision and pragmatism should be rewarded.

Onwards and upwards!
¡Viva Chile Mierda!
3 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 12:24 am Report abuse
#2 Because even though they try to dismiss her the right are obsessed by Cristina, who keeps running rings round them =)
4 Pirate Love (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 12:49 am Report abuse
@2 your welcome, if you read closer i actually complimented the hard work of those countries, and i never swore once.... it was that clean, as for spoiling i thought this was a discussion page not a good feeling gathering, if you feel it is abuse of your good feeling then please feel free to report, if you dont like my views then please do not read.....now your spoiling my good feeling ;)
5 ProRG_American (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 01:23 am Report abuse
Haaa! Tell it to the Mexicans dodging bullets and the students protesting in Santiago.
6 The Chilean perspective (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 03:53 am Report abuse
@5 ProRG_American.
Yes, they are aware buddy. Just think about it for a minute, the Mexicans with all the drama going on over there still managed to preform, if they didn't have this Narco disease to deal with their success would have been much higher.
As for the Chileans, the students have been heard loud and clear. There are changes galore going on. Any student no matter his financial background is guaranteed university, if he has the merit. You will see the marches begin to die off soon, and expect to see more educational and other reforms as the finances continue to grow. The major parties are not afraid to spend so long as they have the money, remember we do not run fiscal deficits. Another step forward my friends. GDP per capita has broken the US$19,000 barrier (PPP) it's only a handful of years away now let's keep it up.
7 Condorito (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 01:00 pm Report abuse
Pirate Love,
It’s alright I wasn’t having a go, it is just mentioning her name feeds the CFK trolls ... and look there they are jumping in at 3 and 5.

ProRG_BK
That’s right, we have the best growth rate in the OECD for 4 consecutive years (2 actual , 2 forecast) combined with the worst education in the OECD. Just imagine where we will be once all the new money and effort that is going in to education filters through.

Look what we have achieved in 20 years – poverty from 40% to 15%. We have improved every key metric year on year, together with building strong links and respect with all major economies. We are going to continue improving.

Look what Argentina has achieved in the last 20 years, boom – bust - the biggest default in history – boom - and now an inexorable decline and pariah status. You should be celebrating that at least one country in South America is showing the way forward.
8 Pirate Love (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 01:18 pm Report abuse
@7 they are going to post regardless, but point taken.
9 ManRod (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 02:00 pm Report abuse
Argentina: watch and learn... high growth with low inflation and with no fake state stimuli nor manipulation necessary, just pure hard working pragmatism.
19.000 USD per capita... I think we must be effectively passing by the first western legacy EU members, which relied and based on “state-debt-economies”
10 ProRG_American (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 06:41 pm Report abuse
Nice lecture, but

“Yes, they are aware buddy. Just think about it for a minute, the Mexicans with all the drama going on over there still managed to preform, if they didn't have this Narco disease to deal with their success would have been much higher.”
I hope that you are right, as for now and a few more decades, we will till have to deal with thousands coming over the fence in droves because their peconomic performance and distribution cannot satisfy the ever growing population.
” As for the Chileans, the students have been heard loud and clear. There are changes galore going on. Any student no matter his financial background is guaranteed university, if he has the merit. You will see the marches begin to die off soon, and expect to see more educational and other reforms as the finances continue to grow. The major parties are not afraid to spend so long as they have the money, remember we do not run fiscal deficits. Another step forward my friends. GDP per capita has broken the US$19,000 barrier (PPP) it's only a handful of years away now let's keep it up.”
Good for Chile. You will need an increasing GDP to pay for services that otherwise you get free or at reduced cost through higher taxes elsewhere. Truly, there is no free lunch, but i'd rather have everyone chip in for everyones bnefits. In the mean time, I suppose that while we wait for a handful of years the Argentine taxpayer will continue to pay for it's neighbors education, medical and other services that they cannot afford or have to go into permanent debt to get. It would be interesting to see if Argentina would just stop spending money on foreigners that pass through in the night. I am sure that it would get a lot of criticism.
I have spoken with Chileans and they tell me that in their country, they have to allow their pockets to be gouged for the srvices they need.
As for that deficit that you don't have, why not use that money to fund public education and healthcare rather than F-16's and tanks
11 ManRod (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 08:41 pm Report abuse
proRG: i do read very often from you argies the suppossed arguement of being a kind of welfare state, that you care for chilean students and offer them free education and that would cost your country soooo much money. Many of you guys write that in a kind of selfloving arrogance. But when it comes to the facts, everybody gets to know this is only a marketing gag. The last position that you guys believe not having been surpassed by your western neighbour. Well, lets see the naked facts: Argentina has 41 million in population and 1.,65 million students.Chile has a population of 16 million, but with higher costs or whatever, still a higher density of studying population with slightly more than 1 million. Now the burner: the supposed Exodus of chilean students to the argentine universities currently consists of... take a seat now due to the overhelming amount... around 700 students! (yes, seven hundred). most of them, due to the fact they didnt pass the admission test to a university (PSU) , which bases soloely on capacity of the student or being part of mixed families. The not meaningless majority of over a million of chilean students prefer to take the cost of higher fees on the proven better universities in Chile than going the easy and unambitious argentine universities.
12 Condorito (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 09:48 pm Report abuse
11
Quite right Manrod.
Prorg’s ideas about Chileans getting education in Argentina are pure fantasy. In my entire life, I have never met a Chilean who when to school in Arg. I am not saying they don’t exist but they are probably fewer or equal in number to the Argie students over here due to mix marriage, parents job location etc.

10
Prorg, you ask,” why not use that money to fund public education and healthcare rather than F-16's and tanks”.

In an ideal world we wouldn’t need weapons right, but we are not there, so defence, like health and education is one area that must receive its share of the budget. That is all part of stable responsible growth. It is certainly better than boom, bust, big army, crushed army, bust, boom again, no army, bust again.

“I have spoken with Chileans and they tell me that in their country, they have to allow their pockets to be gouged for the services they need.”

There is certainly some truth in that, but everything has to be paid for doesn’t it. In the last 5 years Chilean public spending has increase over 100% (at the same time as staying within budget, building reserves and buying F-16s). New medical facilities have sprung up everywhere and there has been a significant increase in the number of conditions treated freely.

We are still a long way from where most of us want the country to be, but what we do have is a stable and sustainable model for progress.
13 The Chilean perspective (#) Nov 30th, 2012 - 10:06 am Report abuse
@ 10 ProRG_American...
You know why we have a strong military, remember operacion soberania?
We will never be in such a vulnerable position again, the Chilean taxpayer demands a defense force capable of protecting our sovereignty. It's that simple.

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