Wednesday, November 28th 2012 - 05:37 UTC

Fitch downgrades Argentina’s credit rating fearing ‘probable default’

Fitch Ratings agency announced on Tuesday it has downgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating from “B” to “CC,” with a negative outlook, as it sees a “probable default” if the country misses its payment to holdout investors.

Uncertainty related to the impact of the US court ruling likely further damage confidence

The agency stated in a communiqué that “the increased probability that Argentina will not service its restructured debt securities issued under New York law on a timely basis reflects US District Judge Griesa's decision on Nov. 21 to remove the stay order on the ruling that Argentina must pay 1.33 billion dollars to holdout investors concurrent with or prior to its payments due to holders of the 2005 and 2010 restructured debt.”

Fitch assured that a missed payment could lead to a “cross default on all exchanged debt securities issued under international law.”

“A missed coupon payment of any other external securities would also trigger a cross default on all exchanged bonds issued under international law,” it continued.

Fearing Argentina will disobey his order, Griesa wants 1.33 billion deposited in a US escrow account by Dec. 15 to ensure payment if all appeals trying to overturn or block his decisions fail.

The “holdout” investors are suing to recover the full value of bonds that Argentina stopped paying in 2002, setting up a battle with the country's government which brands them as “vulture funds” and has refused to pay them.

Fitch put a negative outlook on the credit which is two steps away from outright default.

Argentina has vowed not to pay the holdout investors, led by Elliott Management's NML Capital Ltd and Aurelius Capital Management, prompting Griesa to order the payment be made before the 2nd Circuit rules on his decision.

Fitch highlighted Argentina's 2005 “Lock Law” which prohibits “re-opening the exchange or from conducting any type of settlement with holdouts without prior authorization from Congress” as a likely reason that payment will not be made.

If no payment is made a technical default would ensue, with uncertainty remaining over treatment of credit default swap contracts, which have surged in prices as investors scramble for protection from a default or restructuring.

“The uncertainty related to the impact of the US Court ruling is likely to further damage confidence and intensify political and social tensions in the country and undermine growth prospects,” Fitch said in its statement.

“While the authorities have been able to stabilize international reserves by progressively tightening capital controls, this has come at the expense of increased economic distortions. The sustainability of this strategy is also vulnerable to international commodity prices, especially soy,” Fitch said.

52 comments Feed

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1 surfer (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 06:21 am Report abuse
probable default, the time for smackdown is long overdue.

once the Falkland Islands get pushed up the Argentine political agenda it's a sure fire sign of imminent economic meltdown.
2 Troy Tempest (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 06:30 am Report abuse
Falklands Barometer - higher up the agenda the higher the pressure
3 LEPRecon (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 07:02 am Report abuse
@1 surfer

Yup, the end is nigh for CFKs inept economic model. Even Venezula hasn't got deep enough pockets to keep bailing her out.

We should know the ILOST result by the end of the week (I'm betting they'll throw it out as not under their jurisdiction), the IMF will cut Argentina out of the international money markets on Dec 17. The future certainly doesn't look good for Argentina right now.
4 Huntsman Extraordinaire (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:13 am Report abuse
5 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:20 am Report abuse
A default doesn't help anybody. Argentina needs to cough up.
6 ChrisR (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:59 am Report abuse
TMBOA will never pay the vultures, NEVER, NEVER, NEVER she says, until she does.
7 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 12:38 pm Report abuse
Let's not forget that tomorrow is “Can I have my boat back day”
8 wesley mouch (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 12:43 pm Report abuse
Perhaps CFK will use some of the millions she has stolen to keep the country afloat - not.
9 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 01:01 pm Report abuse
With argentina just finishing yet another holiday off with pay, Sovereignty Day if you can believe it, it's time to create a new holiday, Vulture Resistance Day.
10 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 01:33 pm Report abuse
Another interesting article:

The last paragraph in particular:

“the bondholder group said the court's logic ”makes no sense“ as nobody expected Argentina to pay. They also blasted the judge for the ”level of rancour“ they say he exhibited”

It highlights that CFK has seriously pissed off some people that hold the key to their prosperity. That nobody expects Argentina to pay also highlights they aren't involved in the court procedings in good faith and will ignore it if the finding go against them. Judges don't like that attitude.
11 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 01:52 pm Report abuse
It is an interesting article and more an interesting situation to see how it all plays out.
12 Britworker (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 02:31 pm Report abuse
13 briton (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 02:38 pm Report abuse
its official then

its all Fitch fault
says CFK .lol.
14 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 02:39 pm Report abuse

Did you accidentally hit submit before finishing????
15 andy65 (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 03:00 pm Report abuse
Lets hope the charming Miss Christine Lagrande (chairman of IMF) slaps sanctions on old rubber lips some time soon also.

16 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 03:08 pm Report abuse
abs all bull shit

December will be a merry month indeed.......

Media repression
bond defaults
IMF face off

Let's not forget Christmas

and a happy new new

feliz cumpleanos
17 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 03:17 pm Report abuse
I'm obviously not down with the youth and all their acronyms
18 Welsh Wizard (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 03:39 pm Report abuse
Anyone know if Argentina took out any swaps with the bonds or if there are any ratings triggers under the bond docs? If they did/if there are they msut have had to post a huge amount of collateral over the last year in an escrow account...could this be used to repay bond holders on default (that is usually the case)...?
19 windy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 03:46 pm Report abuse
Britain plc is roughly £13.5 billion pounds a month in order to stave off economic collaspe.
People in glass houses should not be throwing stones.
20 Idlehands (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 04:05 pm Report abuse
19 windy

I don't hear any bailiffs at the door.
21 andy65 (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 04:15 pm Report abuse
@19windy but we are paying our debts and still have a tripple AAA rating-not sure if there is any chance of the UK defaulting.
22 Anbar (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 04:19 pm Report abuse
Why is everybody so desirous to see Argentina default in some way?

Sure it will hurt CFK, sure she deserves it (as most of Argentina's woes are thanks to her) but it wont do anybody any good for Argentina to go titsup or default.
23 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 04:21 pm Report abuse

You are the fox guarding the hen house. Of course all the “hen” are still alive and well.... according to the fox.
24 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 05:13 pm Report abuse
Don't argue with the argentine paid trolls. There history is ingrained with massive highs and unfathomable lows with extraordinary inflation numbers. This is there amusement park, the roller coaster that they prefer to life with......let them.
25 Pirat-Hunter (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 05:17 pm Report abuse
Thank you Fitch, all Argentine's are thankful to Fitch for cutting off any chance international pirates had to theft Argentine tax payers revenues. Let's make a deal the World can keep their toilet paper money and Argentina can keep all our Natural resources, It's that simple, trying to blackmail Argentina will keep Argentina away from dealing with war mongers. Argentina will not help terrorist nations as long as mossad, mi6 and CIA keep the terror attacks against muslims.
In any case nations with terrorists organizations like CIA, MI6 and mossad should be bared from the capital markets trades.
26 Brit Bob (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 05:21 pm Report abuse
Default + IMF Red Card = Merry Christmas Argentina!
27 Frank (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 05:23 pm Report abuse
@17 Idlehands. You should join OFAA
28 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 06:12 pm Report abuse
#25 shut up Canadian.......have you been snowed in alex or mommy ground you?
As for more about the RG's you pretend to be
29 andy65 (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 06:24 pm Report abuse
Just wondering when things get really bad if the Argentine militry will start throwing people from aircraft again.
30 Pirat-Hunter (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 06:59 pm Report abuse
#28 try santa, wishes are his department, Alex? Is that your boyfriend or just another guy you are stalking? You are working for Fitch today I see! We Argentines still love and support CFK 101% and I don't see any other candidate worth mentioning any time soon. Trust me any Argentine who knows how this loans are used to funnel tax revenues, minerals and other resources out of nations is cheering Fitch downgrade, Less for the capitalists more for the national, a strong national bank can replace loan sharks.
31 briton (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 07:07 pm Report abuse
CFK could end all this humiliation over night,
So why don’t she.
32 Xect (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 07:33 pm Report abuse
Lol @ the love for CFK all the way from Canada, a successful western economy.

If you hate capitalists and western countries, why live in Canada?

Interesting for someone who doesn't live there, doesn't suffer the failed economy or terrible crime levels and is not in touch with Argentine people because its quite clear CFK is no longer supported by the masses in Argentina.
33 MistyThink (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 08:18 pm Report abuse
I think Argentina has enough money to give kickbacks to the these agencies for holding up the rating.
34 Nostrolldamus The 2nd (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 08:28 pm Report abuse
Too bad the UK didn't have enough cash to pay Dadong to keep the AAA rating, intead of their very pedestrian A they have today.

(unlike Fitch or Moody, Dadong is trully independent from the london-new york cabal)
35 andy65 (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 09:05 pm Report abuse
@34 Nostrolldamus
Perhaps you could tell us all about the ANTI Hitler Kirchner feelings in Argentina at the moment or were we immagining the recent HUGE demonstrations.

36 Santa Fe (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 09:21 pm Report abuse
34...a truly independent rating agency in undemocratic government controlled communist state, love it your logic is truly rubbish jajajaja
the same agency that rate Spain the same as the US

Remind me what is CC rating????
37 commonsparrow (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 09:28 pm Report abuse
Argentina has the money. They just don't want to pay.
Try telling that to your mortgage lender.
38 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:19 pm Report abuse
tick tick tick......
39 British_Kirchnerist (#) Nov 28th, 2012 - 10:59 pm Report abuse
Wasn't it proven that Fitch are crooks?
40 Ayayay (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 12:28 am Report abuse
@9 Ding ding! We have a winner!
41 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 12:34 am Report abuse
Proven as crooks? What were they convicted of?
42 Ayayay (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 06:36 am Report abuse
Private ratings agencies like Fitch attracted criticism-because they were too optimistic.
43 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 11:04 am Report abuse
One rating agency. If you RG trolls are going to tell a story, add a dash of truth.
44 zethe (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 05:48 pm Report abuse
(unlike Fitch or Moody, Dadong is trully independent from the london-new york cabal)

Unlike Fitch or Moody, Dagong isn't a ratings agency that affects our actual borrowing rates, so it makes no difference.

However, Like the UK and the USA, Dagong has had reviewed your nation's prospects:

”Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Dagong”) decides to downgrade the local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings of the Republic of Argentina (hereinafter referred to as “Argentina”) from B and B- to B- and CCC, respectively, and each with a negative outlook.”
45 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 06:41 pm Report abuse
Yawn China owns argenturd
46 pippa (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 07:55 pm
Comment removed by the editor.
47 briton (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 08:09 pm Report abuse
Yes we’ve heard it all before,
China owns the whole world,

Seems a lot to have on ones plate ?
Lets just hope she don’t drop it then.
48 ChrisR (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 08:16 pm Report abuse
46 pippa

Another argie claiming to be American! Or a stupid American failing to understand her own country’s economics.

What currency do the Chin hold masses of? The American dollar.

And who administers the fiat currency of the world for trading purposes? America, it’s the dollar.

Who is most at risk from any reduction in value of the dollar? CHINA.

It is like when you have a small loan off the bank. They can call it in anytime they like and won’t give a toss what happens to you.

However, have a BIG loan off the bank and they will be praying you don’t go under.

Get it now, pippa?
49 toooldtodieyoung (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 08:22 pm Report abuse
“Fitch Ratings agency announced on Tuesday it has downgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating from “B” to “CC,” with a negative outlook, as it sees a “probable default” if the country misses its payment to holdout investors.”

Well, the sun always shines doesn't it? There will be clear blue skies from now on.......Everything is lovely... Move along, move along!!! there is nothing to see here!!

Flagship inpounded, credit rating in the toilet, economy shrinking....... KFC / Ol' Turkey Neck / TMBOA / The Harpy sure got all those boxes ticked don't she?
50 Captain Poppy (#) Nov 29th, 2012 - 09:18 pm Report abuse
Don't confuse CHina having 24% of all outstanding US debt. China exported 400 billion...with a B to the USA in 2011 and the numbers are higher this year. China needs the USA more than the USA needs China. However I do not expect the contrarian modelist's of argentina to understand that debt and trade go hand in hand.
51 Troy Tempest (#) Dec 02nd, 2012 - 06:53 am Report abuse
@46 Pippa

Pippa is a “sussie” persona.

How's your “Papi”, Sussie ??
52 Captain Poppy (#) Dec 02nd, 2012 - 02:46 pm Report abuse
I find it quite interesting Troy that MNL filed a motion to require Argentina deposit in a USA bank between 1 billion dollars because of the ranting that Argentina did, announcing to the world that Argentina has no intention of following a judges order. They claim this stay only gives Argentina added time to plan around not paying. AND....if they court decides against this motion, that the court make their decision before December 31st. I don't not think Argentina is going to win this Friday filed motion.

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