Tuesday, January 15th 2013 - 02:06 UTC

Argentina’s inflation in 2012 climbed to 25.6% according to private agencies

The 2012 twelve-month inflation in Argentina climbed to 25.6%, two times the figures registered by the official data from stats office Indec, according to the index presented by opposition lawmakers based in the analysis of nine private agencies.

Lawmakers members of the Freedom of Expression committee making the announcement

The latest release for the month of December shows inflation reached 2.1% in December, triggered by the New Year's eve consumption and the beginning of the southern hemisphere summer holidays.

According to Argentina’s Indec national statistics bureau, the inflation had accumulated 9.7% between January and November, which could add up to 11% with the volume registered in December, more than a half of the figures released by the private agencies.

The announcement was made during a Monday press conference headed by Patricia Bullrich (Unión por Todos), Carlos Brown (Peronist Front), Cornelia Schmidt-Liermann (PRO)and Patricia De Ferrari (Radical Party), all belonging to the Freedom of Speech Lower House Committee.

Regarding the results, Brown assured that “the index is the highest in the region, including Venezuela, leading to a drop of the activity levels”.

During every month of 2012 and 2011, the official Indec inflation has been consistently lower, (below half) than the so called Congressional index based on the average of nine private agencies that if they release the numbers on their own are exposed to heavy fines. Thus the congressional index released by the Freedom of Speech committee participation and which is used as a reference by the private sector, trade unions and the Judiciary.

Argentina’s alleged manipulation of inflation and GDP indexes has been seriously questioned by the IMF and the World Bank. GDP indexes are linked to the yields of some of the restructured defaulted bonds.

In 2011 the Congressional inflation index marked 22.8%.
 

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1 Rufus (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 09:28 am Report abuse
I do like the idea of the Congressional Index (i.e. the actual rate, only having to be released through Congress, so the government doesn't fine the private sector companies for telling the truth again).

I wonder if the IMF approve?
2 Pirate Love (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 11:34 am Report abuse
IMF are going to have a field day,
The time to face the music is looming, great isnt it?
3 yankeeboy (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 01:46 pm Report abuse
The IMF wants all INDEC stats recalculated back to when they started falsifying the data.

The IMF spent a lot of time a couple years ago with INDEC developing the methodology they want them to use AT THE REQUEST OF ARGENTINA but CFK has refused to release the stats with the new method.

Arg should be discussed at the IMF Exec Board meeting shortly.
4 Ahab (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 01:56 pm Report abuse
@3 yankeeboy

Say that they do agree to recalculate the stats from the beginning of falsification (however unlikely, CFK is more likely to brand the IMF as a vulture fund).

What will that do with things like the inflation linked bonds? I imagine there will be retroactive payments to be made.
5 yankeeboy (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 02:13 pm Report abuse
Owners of Arg Inflation linked bonds have already been filing lawsuits. It is estimated there has been up to a U$ 30 B underpayment in interest.

Frankly I don't think she is worried about the $. I think she is more concerned with the K legacy. They have been telling lies for so long trying to make them look like they are best thing that has happened to Argentina since Genetically Altered Soy!

The recalculation will show GDP growth was not “ at China rates” that poverty never went below 30% and with a little digging they will find that all of this so called growth has come from stealing every single cent of hard $ in the country, BCRA, ANSES, YPF, etc etc etc. about U$25B/yr stolen and replaced with Arg bonds paying an interest rate lower than inflation.
I would hate to be the next ruler.
6 Welsh Wizard (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 03:09 pm Report abuse
@5

The IMF will discuss but will they actually do anything? I almost expect them to give more time to comply, I say this as expulsion and the resulting effects will kill the country, the IMF won't want this on their hands as, from the outside, it will look like the IMF has destroyed a country for telling a couple of fibs about their stats.

Personally, my view is that if you are in the club and you've signed-up then abide by the fcuking rules, however, I'm not the IMF. So, quick straw poll. Does the IMF have the balls to issue the red card, yes or no? I'll go first and say, this time...

No
7 yankeeboy (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 03:32 pm Report abuse
My friends that work at WB & IDB expect the Exec Board to follow through with the censure. It will take a 18-24 months before they are expelled. That is long enough for a change in Gov't in Arg.
8 Welsh Wizard (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 03:38 pm Report abuse
@7

Interesting as this will be a first. What if gov change their mind in the meantime and update the stats, I suppose they will have to pay out...either way they can't really win
9 yankeeboy (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 04:00 pm Report abuse
IDB has had Argentina on risk “eminent default” since 3rd quarter of last year.
By charter neither IDB or WB can disburse funds once Arg has been censured. It is a serious hit to their U$ accumulation tactic.
10 Welsh Wizard (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 04:25 pm Report abuse
Got you. So during the period between censure and expulsion they won't have access any IDB/WB funds, do we have any idea how much this accounts for?
Also, where does this leave car manufacturers/multinationals, obviously it will hit their cost of funding dramatically but will they be able to operate during that time or are they prohibited from operating in a censured country...I suppose that it could impact on the MAC clause in their loan agreements but banks aren't going to pull funding on that basis...how do you see it playing out?
11 yankeeboy (#) Jan 15th, 2013 - 06:53 pm Report abuse
10. I don't think anyone knows what will happen as usual Argentina is making history and not in a good way!

If IMF does censure it will give the USA a good excuse to kick Arg out of G20, no company will have access to ExIM bank or be able to sign contracts without the ICSID and no Int'l org will take that risk.

My guess is that financing will become so difficult most US EU mfg will leave the country. It will take a couple years though and by then CFK will be gone and it will be someone else's problem.

For her this is just a waiting game. She doesn't care what happens when she leaves because she will either be dead or my guess is in jail.
12 Tobers (#) Jan 17th, 2013 - 04:07 pm Report abuse
She wont be dead (through revolution etc) and shes not going to jail. Too many of her associates and their associates have their fingers in the pie. Every knows that Menem stole BIG time and hes still a senator. Its the system not just CFK . Same way that Tony Blair wont be going to jail for fibbing about an imminent threat of Iraq to UK with WMDs.

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