Friday, April 19th 2013 - 02:51 UTC

Argentine international reserves fall below the 40bn dollars benchmark, 8% so far this year

Argentina’s Central bank international reserves have fallen below the 40bn dollars benchmark, which is the lowest in six years, according to the bank’s official data. So far this year the drain has been 3.48bn dollars and 12.84bn from the record 52.6bn of January 2011.

The Central bank is losing reserves faster than expected

But JPMorgan-Chase & Co anticipates they will drop further, to 37.5bn as capital controls erode the country’s trade balance. The estimate of a 5.5bn decline in central bank funds this year assumes that capital controls will prevent a pickup in private-sector outflows.

This means Argentina’s international reserves loss was 8% this year and 24.4% in the last two years with a sustained decline tendency. The latest data took into account the fall of the international price of gold and payment, capital and interest, of locals bonds.

“Capital controls threaten to exert an adverse toll on expectations of economic performance” JPMorgan analysts including New York-based Vladimir Werning wrote in an e-mailed research report.

Argentina’s trade balance surplus will be 9.6bn this year, according to JPMorgan, down from a previous estimate of 11.6bn.

JPMorgan cut its 2013 “agro bonus” forecast, the estimated increase in agriculture-related exports, to 4.8bn from 6.7bn. It projected soy crop output of 45 million tons, down from a prior estimate of 51.5 million tons. The bank raised its corn output estimate for this year to 25 million tons from 24 million tons.

YPF the oil company that the Argentine government seized in April 2012, as projected to import 600 million dollars worth of fuel this year.

On Thursday at the end of foreign exchange trading in Buenos Aires, the official price of the US dollar was unchanged at 5.11 Pesos (buying price) and 5.165 Pesos (selling price) while the so called “blue” dollar traded at 8.63 pesos (buying price) and 8.66 Pesos (selling price).
 

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1 Anbar (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 07:43 am Report abuse
“”“So far this year the drain has been 3.48bn dollars and 12.84bn from the record 52.6bn of January 2011.”“”

thats a lot of penthouse suites in New York & elsewhere... or does she like shoes.. handbags...?

certainly a chunk of that has gone directly into the pockets of ReichsChancelor Kirchner , family & cronies.
2 lsolde (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 09:09 am Report abuse
Down & down it goes,
Where it stops, nobody knows.
3 Think (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 09:24 am Report abuse
TWIMC

Let’s see…..

1) The Argentinean Central Bank has, as today 19/04/2013, some 40,000,000,000 dollars in their safe.
That’s 35,000,000,000 dollars MORE than it had in 2003, when the first Kirchner was elected.
All of it ”REAL MONEY” in the Bank………..

2) This ”REAL MONEY” is being used to continue our policy of External Debt Reduction.
The Argentinean External Debt was about 150% of our GDP in 2003.
Today, ten years after, it's been reduced to about 27%................

3) During the next couple of months, the export taxes on the 2012/13 bumper crop will yield some 16,000,000,000 dollars into the State coffers.
Customarily, between 1/3 and 1/2 of those monies end in the Central Bank as reserves.
More than enough to stabilize the situation and reduce further our External indebtedness paying with “REAL MONEY”……..

4) All these whilst inflation is being contained by some “heterodox methods”, the per capita consumption of beef is gone up some 10% during the last months and the IMF own economists predict a growth of the Argentinean economy of about 3-4% in 2013 and 2014….

To finish…….
Things could, of course, be much better in Argentina with more dedication, better administration and less corruption but............
This is what we got, and it is much better than what we had during the last 60 years of our history….

Fuerza, Sra. Kirchner!
4 Conqueror (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 11:10 am Report abuse
What Twinky means is that the shit is already flying off the shovel and he is attempting some damage limitation in case it lands on him. Which it, eventually, will!

Meanwhile, argieland is “in the hole” for more than 100,000,000,000 dollars of debt if it ever decides to be “honest”.

During the next couple of months, upwards of 1,000,000 dollars will find its way into the Kirchner “reserves” strategically located around the world.

Meanwhile, inflation is being temporarily contained by “government”-imposed price freezes. When those freezes are removed, appropriate “businesses” will immediately try to recoup the losses they incurred whilst the freezes were in place. Expect inflation to jump by around 5%. Although INDEC will show only a modest increase on the order of 0.1%.

At the same time, YPF will be forced to admit that its estimate of having to buy an additional 400 million dollars of fuel following the La Plata refinery flooding and fire was determined by INDEC. In fact it will need an additional 1.5 billion dollars of fuel. Meanwhile, the “government” has shown no sign of producing the 800 million pesos required to rebuild the facility. It is expected that “work” will also be held back as construction workers demand payment in US dollars at the “blue” rate. Effectively, this means that the rebuild cost will be around 274 million US dollars.
5 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 11:16 am Report abuse
They are now waaaaay below the amount they would need to contain a run on the peso.

Think your figures are a bit off:
1. FCF Reserves are somewhere around U$8-9 B and since there has not been an audit in many many years it may be lower. Much much lower. Remember the “reserves” count U$ that is not actually owned by Arg but is in deposit in the Arg banks. Quite a difference right? Could be hard to get ahold of unless they do another forced Peso exchange.

2. Except Argentina isn't recognizing or including ICSID claims U$65B, underpayment of Inflation linked bonds U$25B, underpayment of holdouts U$45B, YPF U$10B...etc etc etc.

3. Figures are a bit off, Arg is expected to get U$8B MAX in tax revenue but needs to spend MIN U$14B for fuel.

4. IMF used INDEC numbers for that growth rate. Most real economists predict 0 to negative growth this year due to the slow down in Brazil.

9/1 what fun.
6 Condorito (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 12:08 pm Report abuse
3
Credit where it is due: you spin it well Think.
7 pgerman (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 12:36 pm Report abuse
¿40,000 millions? This guy by the name of “Think” must be drunk all the time.

Due to my job I check the reserves of the Central Bank every week. With the credit of the BIS bank the reserves are USD 8-9,000 million but if you chek the balance the reserves are rounding USD 5-6,000 millions. The rest of the “informed” reserves are bonds (LEBAC, NOBAC), private deposits in USD and other money that belong to private banks. So, basically one of the most dangerous thinks of the current situation is the lack of reserves and dollars. That's the reason why the Government imposed the “dollar clamp” .

Nobody really know the total amount of the external debt basically because there are some that was never negotiated with the creditors. IE: the debt with the “Paris Club” that was left unpaid since year 2002. But as the Government didn't go to negotiate with the creditor a payment plan the actual ammount is unknown.

In addition, part of the external debt was cancelled by imposing the government conditions but the internal debt was increased in such ammount that...I see another “default” coming. But nit will be an internal one and with a couple of laws it will be liquefied by stealing the citizens.

Industrial exportation are plunging becasue the Government recognices a dolar of AR$ 5.14 when in the streets AR$ 8.70 must be paid to get them. So it's the worse scenario. It's a kind of devaluation but without devaluation.

Crops exported gets a recognition of arounf AR$ 3.4 per dollar.....
Inflation is 25/30% basically beacse the Government (that has direc authority to the Central Bank) increased the monetarty base 40% in..the last 12 months....

To finish. As the situation is so bad it is quite evident that the current scheme can not last long before collapsing as in 2001/2002. I imagine that after this year election she will try to correct some things. The question is if she will knowhow to correct it...
8 Think (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 01:15 pm Report abuse
(6) Condorito

My post No: (3) is not “Spin”....................

It consists of comprobable facts, taken from “Kirchner Critical” International Organizations like the IMF & the World Bank and “Kirchner Critical” media as Clarin and our very own MercoPress.......

You want “Spin”.......?
Then read comments (4), (5) & (7)
That's “Spin”..... Bad Quality “Spin” with figures taken from “???” and confirmed by “???”
9 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 01:28 pm Report abuse
World Bank gets its stats from IMF who gets the stats from INDEC.

Do you think everyone is as dumb as you are?
10 Think (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 01:33 pm Report abuse
(6) Condorito

You want more “Spin”.......?
Then read comment (9)
11 pgerman (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 02:35 pm Report abuse
Think, if you were able to read the official weekly reports of the BCRA and its balances that can be seen freely on the official website of the Central Bank you would realize what I mentioned.

The disproportionate increase in the monetary base arises there just by looking at and checking the figures. It also appears there the growth in the number of LEBAC And NOBAC issued to sterilize the economy. The reduction of the private deposits in USD and reserve requirements in the same currency are informed there too.

I must point out that today, with the new law, the Central Bank is now a mere appendage of the government so the data mentioned are official government reports.

The issue is that all these pieces of information are not checked by people in general because they are quite technical data. But they are there in the official site of the BCRA No matther that's against the law they have lately been trying to hide some data and infrom them with two/three weeks but the data is there.

No matter that you intend ignore my comments, they are there and it's quite evident that you read them.
12 DanyBerger (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 02:55 pm Report abuse
@ pgerman

Do you know to read a balance to start with?

1- BCRA balance Active Assets (activos) in Pesos.
Gold and International Reserves
Gold $16,086,048,000 (Gold)
Foreign currency $9,398,072.000 (Cash)
Deposits in foreign banks $182,155,729.000 (In foreign currencies)
MCA $159,349,000 (Cash in Multilateral credit Agreement)

Total assets in Gold and foreign currencies: $207,799,198,000 (in Pesos)
Total assets in USD OER: USD 40,427,859,533.07 OER =$5.14= USD 1

So in other words Sr. Think® is quite right total current reserves USD 40,427 Billions.

Total BCRA Active Assets : $572,439,765,000

Total BCRA Passive Assets: $498,281,676,000 (including Mx, Bonds, previsions, etc)

Total net worth: $74,158,089,000 or USD 14,427,643,774

So according with this balance BCRA is USD14.427 billion up in Blue while most of the central Banks in the world are in red.

You say “increased the monetarty base 40% in..the last 12 months....” right

Now Sure Mr. Economist you know what is the monetary base of Argentina in pesos or US dollars? Right? M1, M2, M3, etc

I guess you have no idea and repeat what you read in crappy newspaper like Clarin Miente or La Destruccion...

Am I right?

In USA the current Monetary base is 3 trillions lets say 20% of GDP in Argentina is 11% of GDP.

Ah! you have not idea either of the current Arg. GDP Am I right?

Answer me please the following question...
If some big holder of US dollar tomorrow will dump the dollar like China,etc.

What will you get for your lovely dollar?

Don’t bother I will answer for you, Nothing because they don’t have reserves in noting tangible to back the dollar.

And you say that Argentina is bad?
Are you crazy or what?
13 pgerman (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 03:20 pm Report abuse
@12 at least you start reading the balances. Good for you.

As I have already written it. it's quite technical and you must know to read it.
Current reserves (officially) include real dolars, credit of the BIS bank (it is not real money), LEBACS AND NOBACS (some in pesos and others in USD but added all in USD..don't ask me why), Pases entre bancos (private money), mandatory reserve requirements (encajes..that's priveta money too).
To get the real dollar figure you must take the reserve officially informed figure and deduct from it the bonds, encajes, pases (all computed in USD).
You can see get all this information from the “Informe monetario semanal”. It's a pdf. file.
Then go to the balance and take from this last figure en amount that appears in the line “Otros” last column. THESE ARE THE REAL RESERVES.
If you wan to see the evolution of the monetary base, just go to the excel file “informe monetario” on the lap “depositos”. There you can see the evolution (the plunging) of the private oney deposit in Argentine banks.

So to see these data I don't need to read any newspaper, Campora boy...

In flation is related with the increase of the monetary base vs. the grouth of the GDP. So if the monetayr base was increased 37% during the last 12 months but the GDP did not change..there you are you have a surpluss of 37% additional money that is pushing prices up.

In additona, the USA is the counrty with more gold (in %) of the World. So the dollar has plenty of back-up. But what's more importan dollar has the USA economy, militar and political power on its back. While Argentina changed currency five times in the last 50 years, and based on the last events it will have to changed soon. So, basically Argentina has no currency.

By the way, you can see the Risk Country Index in the weekly monetary inform. So, this is also an official index of the Argentine economy because is in the official infor of the national government. Don't blame me or Clarin..
14 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 03:22 pm Report abuse
Dany, Can you explain to me how they will use the gold to pay for fuel or to support the run on the peso when it happens?
I am not too clear on how that would work?

You are one dumb cluck
and one of the reason your country nosedives every decade.
15 pgerman (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 04:27 pm Report abuse
@14 there is a saying in Spanish that says “nothing more cheats you more than own believes”. It is perfectly applicable to “Camporitas-guys”.

There is not a single stats that is favourable to Argentina nowadays.

Unemployment is rising, the GDP is stable, the inflation is 25/30%, the copuntry is still “on default” (10 running years “on default” must be a world record ever..), the reserves are almot nothing, the private depostis in usd are being recied day by day, industrial imprtation are “banned” by the internal costo and the “dolar clamp” and basically the Government has not any political confidence to make any change.

Saddly, I don't see anything good for my country in the nexts two/three years.
16 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 04:35 pm Report abuse
15. I think it will take a generation to fix the destruction the Ks have caused to your country.
I think citizens will be shocked to learn their pension and central bank, so basically all of their institutionalized savings in gone and never to return.

Pensions and various other subsidies are swamping the gov't, which will make them print more pesos, which will increase inflation on an never ending cycle.
It is a mess

Soon enough they'll add a zero to the notes, then another, then another until they have to come up with a new money, I'm betting Nuevo Austral or Peso Oro.
17 Chicureo (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 04:54 pm Report abuse
Once upon a time there was a queen who wore pure gold threaded clothes spun so fine that you could not see them, but they were there as the royal finance minister had the receipts from the royal suppliers of gold. Then one day as three queen appeared before her loyal followers an innocent child exclaimed: “ The queen is naked...” I think you remember the rest of the tale...
18 Think (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 06:37 pm Report abuse
(17) Esteemed Mr. Chicureo....

Once upon a time there was a Queen who wore pure copper threaded clothes spun so fine that you could not see them, but they were there as the royal finance minister had the receipts from the royal suppliers of copper. Then one day as the queen appeared before her loyal followers an innocent child exclaimed: “ The queen is naked...” I think you get my point...

www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/copper/1-year/
19 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 07:14 pm Report abuse
Your attempts to be clever always make you look like an idiot.
20 pgerman (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 07:35 pm Report abuse
One of the most amazing things that I see in Peronism is the ability to justify its economic disasters (of own responsibility and authorship) comparing them with real, or perceived, economic disasters in other countries.

They compare Argentina with Spain, Portugal and Greece trying to demonstrate that “the world is falling apart”.

They always mention the examples of those who did things wrong, they never compare Argentina to Chile, or Argentina to Brazil, or Argentina to Germany, or with the Scandinavian countries.

If they mention a country with good economy they mention it to predict that this country is in the midst of an economic disaster in the near future. By following this reasoning, Germany is beginning its recession and will be bad, very bad, in the near future. Or they predict the fall of the dollar dragging the U.S. to a crisis, or the fall in copper prices will drag Chile to its recession.

The only thing that never comes is “the wonderful reality” that they forecast for Argentina because this country is always beginning “the path of liberation”. No matter that Peronism ruled Argentina during the last 24 years almost without interruption. I could even mention plenty of Argentine provinces governed “forever and ever by Peronism” which are the poorest ones with poverty increasing. IE: Chaco, Formosa or Buenos Aires itself.
21 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 08:07 pm Report abuse
Where is Argentina's sovereign wealth fund? What there isn't one?
Gasp
I guess it is in CFKs personal bank account
I hear at least 6 plane full of Euros went out so far...

SANTIAGO, Chile--Chile will increase its two sovereign-wealth funds by around $2 billion in 2013, Finance Minister Felipe Larrain said Wednesday.

The Chilean government is aiming to rebuild the sovereign-wealth funds to the levels at which they were by the end of 2008, before it withdrew $9 billion amid the global financial crisis.

The government plans to end 2013 with around $22.9 billion in the Economic and Social Stabilization Fund and the Pension Reserve Fund, both wholly invested abroad in low-risk instruments.
22 Chicureo (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 08:21 pm Report abuse
My dearest Think,
Our next president without her clothes is not something I want to imagine...
The big news of course in the land of Huasos the recent fall of copper, gold and silver.  Hopefully the gold market stays where it is in order to discourage the Pascua-Lama project, but they 'll probably  go ahead anyway.  China's economy is the the key to sustain reasonable copper prices, as it is for soy for you.
In the end, how many billions has been stolen by our leaders? Even my beloved General set aside millions in the Riggs Bank.  I'm impressed with Paraguay’s Banco Amambay S.A. who created by Amambay Trust Bank Ltd. in the Cook Islands.  How many billions of money was/is creatively stolen that is sitting in banks in Panama, BVI, Andorra... The whole world is corrupt. 
So when you see an Argentinian family vacationing in Chile, I only have admiration for them as they are sheltering their income from thieves.  In Chile, tax fraud is pure theft.  Perhaps we Chileans are more corrupt than our Andean brothers.
Anyway, let's say the Copper market collapses, we still have our reserves , as Yankeeespecially for that occurrence.  Sort of our rainy day fund...
Anyway, it will take another two generations to set things straight, which is doubtful.
I'll raise a dram of single malt in salute to you tonight.  Keep debating, I find it so entertaining.
Saludos
23 Think (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 08:44 pm
Comment removed by the editor.
24 Chicureo (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 09:34 pm
Comment removed by the editor.
25 yankeeboy (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 09:48 pm Report abuse
You know I was just thinking don't the GDP linked bonds start payout over 3% growth?
Anyone want to bet INDEC says the economy grows just under 3% this year, thereby keeping up the myth of growth yet not having to pay interest.
So convenient
Just like the inflation linked bond...
What a bunch of scumbags
26 Condorito (#) Apr 19th, 2013 - 10:44 pm Report abuse
Sr. Think
My comment at 6 was supposed to be a mildly complementary. Perhaps “spin” wasn’t the best world, maybe “optimistic” would have been more appropriate. You see, even if you are right about the numbers, just “sand bagging” the dollars is not sufficient – I appreciate that you do recognise that by saying:

“Things could, of course, be much better in Argentina with more dedication, better administration and less corruption but............”

Given that your government doesn't seem to prioritise better administration or combating corruption, I think that you are exceedingly optimistic.

Re. Copper prices: as you know we have no control over them, but (as pointed out above) we have fixed the roof whilst the sun was shining so we can weather a large storm. On the up side a falling copper should push the peso down a bit and provide some relief to many export sectors. Of course I would be happier if the economy had diversified more than it has, but... tranquilo por las piedras.

Chicureo
Salud!
Which single malt? Anything special?
27 Anglotino (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 04:38 am Report abuse
TWIMNC

Argentina's debt reduction is not as impressive as some gullible people would believe.

Even the Argentine government with their dodgy statistics reported to the IMF a debt level of 43.2% for December 2012.

Not sure where someone got 27% from.

Also considering the 'market“ Rate and not the false rate mandated by the government on exchange and nominal GDP is shrinking when compared to debt held in...... what was the term? Oh that's right ”REAL MONEY”

blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/02/22/argentina-lies-damned-lies-and-statistics/#axzz2LhqoDe10

Did someone say inflation is being bought under control or did I imagine a passage from a fairy tale?
28 DanyBerger (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 05:44 am Report abuse
@pgerman

Reserves FE&G are considered any financial assets that are available to any central bank to meet balance of payments. Also includes foreign currencies in any financial instrument, position taken, gold and SDR (Special Drawing Rights) like for example position taken into the IMF, etc.

So no Lebac or Nobac are included in this item because this are part of the Passives Assets (pasivo del Banco)

Lebacs and Nobac are financial instruments issued by the BCRA and used by the Bank to keep control of the monetary expansion.

So lebacs and others are financial instruments are part of the passive assets of the bank.

The difference in between Passives assets & active assets are equal to the whole reserves or net worth (partrimonio neto) of the bank what is another thing.

So what increase by issuing Lebacs or Nobacs is the total reserves of the banks and the Passive like happen with any other bank when is taking deposits.

“In additona, the USA is the counrty with more gold (in %) of the World. So the dollar has plenty of back-up.”

Well you just already have confirmed that you have no clue about what are you talking about.
Since 1970 US abandoned gold standard convertibility and all the gold was sold to foreign central banks and keep in Fort Knox as storage service. The ingot gold hold there are market with stamps from countries and private companies all over the world.

Dollar are printed from thin air and is someone dump it you simply will get no other thing in exchange because US not even have significant reserves if foreign currencies.

US Reserves in Gold and Foreign currencies $148 billion
Base monetary only in US 3 trillions.

China alone holds 3 trillions USD so these only 2 items make 6 trillions dollars.

Question: how US will back the US dollar having only $148bn in reserves if there are out trillions and trillion around the world?
29 yankeeboy (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 11:09 am Report abuse
There were massive raids by AFIP to intimidate the money changers yesterday. CFK is throwing all she's got to try to keep the peso under 9.
Not gonna work tho
not gonna work
My advice is for her to go seek sanctuary in Venezuela or Africa and get out while the getting is good
30 DanyBerger (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 12:52 pm Report abuse
@yankeeboy

I will be buying something tangible with your US dollars before Dollar collapse Armageddon start to kill any US dollar holder.

Sorry mate but you are close to be the most expendable people in the world be patient the Chinese still looking for an alternative to shitty dollars.
31 yankeeboy (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 12:58 pm Report abuse
30. You think the Chinese, the largest Int'l holder of US bonds, their largest trading partner, largest investor, the place where they get all of their technology from is somehow looking to interfere with our economy?

The Chinese need the USA much more than we need them.

Plus they're going to blow through what little reserves they have when their economy gets crushed under the weight of their debt and real estate crash which I think will bring on revolution.

Your stupidity is truly flabbergasting!
32 Think (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 01:27 pm Report abuse
Ozzie Turnip Anglolatino writes at (27)…:
”Argentina's debt reduction is not as impressive as some gullible people would believe..........
Even the Argentine government with their dodgy statistics reported to the IMF a debt level of 43.2% for December 2012.........
Not sure where someone got 27% from.........”

Ozzie Turnip Anglolatino at (27) makes the turnipy mistake of confusing “Public Debt” with “External Debt”.

The Argentinean “Public Debt” was, in 2012, equivalent to 41.6%* of its GDP.
The Argentinean “External Debt” was, in 2012, equivalent to 27.4%* of its GDP. (Calculated by dividing Argentina’s “External Debt” of ~$130 billions* with Argentina’s GDP of ~$474 billions* = 0.274 or 27.4% )
* All info: CIA World Factbook 2012…..
www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2079.html#ar

By the way, a calculation easily found in Wikipedia…:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt (Rank 35)
33 yankeeboy (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 01:33 pm Report abuse
Public External debt also includes ICSID Judgements, Holdout Bondholders, underpayment of Inflation linked bonds, Paris Club

At least U$150B under reported
at least
most likely more
and the interest keeps clicking along day by day
34 Chicureo (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 01:40 pm Report abuse
Condirito: Balvenie Doube Wood 12 years
Note: normally I drink the cheaper common blends.
35 yankeeboy (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 02:01 pm Report abuse
BTW Dany, you never really explained to me how Argentina will use gold to buy fuel and keep the peso from crashing..
please enlighten us

bahahahaha
36 Think (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 02:03 pm Report abuse
(34)
A nice, smooth and light Spey choice.....
Excellent for breakfast ;-)
Enjoy!
37 yankeeboy (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 02:23 pm Report abuse
One would think the Ks would ban imports of the EVIL UK Whiskey or at least limit it in favor of letting in HIV and Cancer meds.
There are only so many U$ ot pay for imports you know..scotch or meds scotch or meds...

Or could it be our resident no-nothing not living in the rat's nest of Argentina since the 70s?
I wonder
38 Think (#) Apr 20th, 2013 - 03:05 pm Report abuse
Admittedly, the ”Speyside Scene” in Western Chubut is becoming somehow limited….

Luckily; Coyhaique is just a couple of horseride days away.
There, an old man can get all he needs …..
Scottish drams and Alpacka rafts. ;-)
39 axel arg (#) Apr 21st, 2013 - 12:00 am Report abuse
TOO PARTIAL AS USUALL.
Beyond the expectable fact that this news was going to be celebrated by the most reactionary and mediocre forists who often predict and wish a new economic disaster for argentina, there are some important facts that you should know.
While it is true that we have a high inflation level, beside our reserves have declined, however most increases in our salaries are higuer than inflation, the problem is that we have a 35% of workers who are undocumented, so, those people don't charge the same than us, but many of them are protected by statal help, especially if they have children. The country has a huge challenge in order to diminish that 35%, which was 50% in 2003.
On the other hand, what is not told in this report is that although the number of reserves have declined, the country has enough reserves in order to stop any financial coup d'etat, in fact, since 2007 untill 2011, the capitals flight that we had, was much bigger than the capitals flights during the last dictatorship, the decades of the 80's, the 90's, and the crisis of 2001, however the economy didn't collapse, in contrary to all the rest of the periods i mentioned. It shows that despite all the problems that we still have, the economy is very solid.
C. f. k's govt. had to tolerate six intents of financial coup d'etats, with very hight capitals flights, this practice has always been usuall among the powerful coporations, with the purpose of pushing the different presidents. I recommend you to search in google the following headline, which tells with sources about the six intents i mention, it was published last year in pagina12, and written by economist alfredo zaiat.

porque, cuantos y quienes compraron

Beside, this report doesn't tell that the govt. pays debt with reserves, but it usually recovers them with the remitances that it gets thanks to the reaps.
On the other hand, it doesn' tell either that debt represents 42% of gdp, in 2003 it was 160 %.
40 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 21st, 2013 - 04:29 pm Report abuse
Anyone dirtbag country can lower debt to GDP ratio by defaulting. Responsible and valid countries pay their incurred debt. Let's see what the April trade figures so to be and is the continuing trend toward deficits prevail......Argentina is screwed in the reserves department. Think they will steal from the people again like the pensions they stole?
41 Think (#) Apr 21st, 2013 - 08:23 pm Report abuse
(40) Captain Poppy

The lowering of the External Debt to GDP ratio we are talking about here happened from 2003 to 2013......
That is 1 ½ years AFTER the Argentinean default.....

Who stole our pensions???

Ten years ago, just before the first Kirchner was elected, the minimum pension was 150 pesos (60U$S)
Today the minimum pension is 2,165 pesos (415U$S)
That's an increase of more than 600% in constant value for the 70% of Argentinean pensioners on minimum pensions......

And the money is in the bank....... Every single month.
I repeat my question to you.....
Who stole our pensions???
42 pgerman (#) Apr 21st, 2013 - 09:07 pm Report abuse
@DBerger
Not only you offended me but also very little of what you say is correct. Firstly, not all the CB in the world have the atribution of balancing the payments of its country. I would say that very few.

Secondly, as you mentioned LEBACS and NOBACs, some nominally in dollars and the rest in pesos, have to be netted against reserves (assets vs.. Liabilities) by the principle of double counting. That is the reason why they cannot be considered reserves. They are simply documents (debts) that must be netted against liabilities. So, by law, you must respect the balance between the two accounts (or columns if you like). To use these dollars you will have to previously cancel the corresponding bonds. So they are not real or usable reserves. They are a total of U$D 20,000 million (a little bit more) .

The BCRA includes as its reserves the “reserve requirements” (encajes) that are also private money in private banks (about USD 8 billion). Also included in the reserves the “pases” between banks that belong to private banks. They are something like USD 2 billion. Did you follow me? That leaves you approximately usable U$D 10 billion in the reserves.
You must also deduct the money of the Basilea Bank (BIS) that is usually between U$D 3/4 billion. In the last BCRA balance is shown exactly as U$D 4.141 billion. What's you final figure?
Regarding the gold backing, please, check here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

@ Think, 2,165 pesos are U$D 254 TODAY. Tomorrow? Who knows? And yes CFK (and his hisband) effectively looted the pension funds (by force) so that most of them are bonds with nominal value that has no market quotation. Future governmets will have to pay retired people with bonds.

Finally, nobody knows exactly the final figure of the debt (due to a pending agreement with Paris Club or the vulture funds legal action) which is not so big (of the GDP) but the country has not credit due to its Risk . It has been on default for more than TEN years
43 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 21st, 2013 - 09:40 pm Report abuse
#42 My wife was one who spent 25 years of her life scrapping a little extra money to put into retirement......they stole it. She is still waiting for paper or a statement that says what she know has. How many years ago did they still the pensions....and nothing?
44 DanyBerger (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 08:46 am Report abuse
@pgerman

“Not only you offended me”
Ha ha no no please.

I will give you a good reason to be offended “you are a complete idiot that talks BS” did I offend you now?

Well my dear friend you are against any financial rule agreed between central banks and IMF.
Gold, SDR and any financial instrument denominated in foreign currency as bonds, deposits, etc. are counted as a Reserves in foreign currency.

All banks in western world count this in their balance as reserves in International foreign currency.

All the banks in the world operate like that.

Or you do think that the 3.3 trillions dollars hold by the Chinese are held in cash?
Do you really think that Brazil has USD250bn in cash in their bank’s vaults?
Nope.

What is your point so?

International reserves are just positions denominated in foreign currency, cash, gold and IMF SDR to be used mostly in balance of payment.

Please post the link you have to see the BCRA balance do ya mate?

You were not able to answer me the question about what is the monetary base of Argentina monetary system but you keep parroting from what you read on the news that have increased 40% in a year.

Do you even know what is the real current GDP of Argentina?

I guess not either.

Well lets see how myth works especially encouraged by bankers and pseudo economist that repeat all the time the same crap.

What is currency?
It is a mean to keep working your economy and make easy trade.
So if you have an economy lets say of $100 your limit to print money is $100 without incurring in currency devaluation.

So why bankers and pseudo economist keep saying that lets say 10% of GDP printing cause devaluation of the currency?

Simple because when less money is available more interest could be charged and the bankers has assured they share in the money creation as currency is considered by bankers like a commodity to be traded.

Can you see the economy doesn’t work like the books say that is the reason why idiots get poor while banker get rich.
45 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 11:58 am Report abuse
@DBerger

So, based on your comments it is quite evident that you believe that printing money out of the growth of the GDP does not creat inflation. Please, don't tell me that you haven't told that, this concept is implied in your comments.

Well, not only the bankers, or the monetarist, always say that. Karl Marx in his books, “The Capital” and in “Criticism of the political economy” mentioned, affirmed and confirmed that. So, it's not only a mathematical fact that if a country grows 1/2% and you print additional 40% of the monetary base the surplus will push prices up.

In addition, you still haven't told me the final amount of the account of the alledged reserves of the BCRA. In addtion, you mentioned that I am using old information and you are right. The current authrties of the BCRA publishes the data with two/three weeks of delay trying to hide information. Just got to the web site and check on your own. But for the purposes of this discussion we can consider it valid information.

Finally, please, don't try to explain things comparing Argentina to USA simply because while the world has hunger of dollars all the argentine citizens rejects the argentine peso. Not to mention abroad the country. SO, the consequencies of printing dollars are quit different from printing argentine pesos.

In addtion, offending peoeple just show your lack of ideas.

Please, don't forget to tell us about your final figure of rargetine reseves.
46 yankeeboy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 01:24 pm Report abuse
When I was young I went to Eastern Europe and everywhere I went all I heard was “American change money?” American change money” I'm guessing that is what Florida Ave is like now.

I see they are sending out the AFIP goon squad to try and keep the peso under 9/1.
Not gonna work
You can't fight the market for long
47 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:09 pm Report abuse
What DBerger doesn't understand is that due to the lack of “real” reserves in the BCRA (I mean without real money, cash or dollar bills) the price of the dollar in the local market will skyrocket increasing inflation.
But not only this, due to the gap between the fictional dollar (official one) and the blue dolar nobody will invest a coin in industries or production. And the capital flight will be more and more important making the emptiness of the country even worse.

The government knows that, so they keep on repeting the lie that there are U$D 40 billions in money in the BCRA. That is a lie !!..another lie of this government.
48 yankeeboy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:14 pm Report abuse
47. Awhile ago I asked Axel if he had a property that he wants to sell and he thought was worth U$100,000 which would he want :
Gov't rate ARG$530,000 or Leak Arg$910,000
and which do you think the buyer wants to pay?

Of course I never got a response

Logic or Reality don't really enter into their tiny brains
49 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:20 pm Report abuse
Yes, It's quite clear, this is another thing you can do. If, in a middle of a discussion about the price of the dollar, you ask a person that defends the Government policy to sell you his/her dollars at the offcial price you get silence or “don't treat me as if I were stupid”..

DGerber kept on asking me about the monetary base. But he can see it in the BCRA website.
50 DanyBerger (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:22 pm Report abuse
@pgerman

Did I say that? Nope

I said that you can print money until you reach the real value of your economy.

Because currency have to be in equilibrium with the size of your economy. Its that simple.

So if you have a GDP of $1000 you can print that amount without devaluating the currency.

But if you do that bankers will kill you because they want a share of the profitable money creation through credits. And that is the way they get profit from thin air.

“So, it's not only a mathematical fact that if a country grows 1/2% and you print additional 40% of the monetary base the surplus will push prices up.”

No true because you have to know what your money supply is according with your GDP.

So if you have a GDP of $1000 and your M1, M2, M3, etc is $20 you have a long way to increase money supply.

Price goes up for different reason for example expectation and speculation.

If I buy all the sugar in the world and want to rise the price simple I don’t sell any sugar until the price is duplicated. The price will goes up without any increase of money supply.

The same is applicable to money, bankers think about money as any other tradable commodity.

So when money is short in the market they make more profits because it is become a scarce item.
People will be crazy to cover their debt and simple when people is desperate you charge more for what you have in stock. That explain another myth about boom and burst business circle.

What kind of capitalist are you?

Do you think that the owner of the diamond mines sale all their diamonds to make collapse the price?

Nope only an idiot will do that, they sit on it and restrict the sale to get more money for less diamonds.

I will like to be the monopoly of the potable water in the world you know.

Do you want water?

$100 at drop idiot if you don’t pay me you will not get any.

You don't forget to show us your link about the BCRA balance so we can laugh a little bit.

BTW have you figure out what the real GDP of Arg is?
51 yankeeboy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:39 pm Report abuse
Well that was clearly explained!
Bahahaha
With brilliant analysis like this It is plain to see why there is a currency crisis every 10 years

BTW did the Argentine economy grow 10,000% during the last hyperinflation period?
Bahahahaha
52 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:43 pm Report abuse
I tink dumbburgers has a very specific times that he is allowed to post. He is the angriest of the trolls residing in Europe. He strikes me as his anger manifests from the fact he was born in the skin he was born in.....perhaps in this case maybe the country. But he took care of that by moving to Europe.
53 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:47 pm Report abuse
yankeeboy, please, don't make the same mistake caporita's boys usually make. Let's Mr. DBerger explain in figures his theory.

DGerber I would like you make figures in this site using the GDP and explain to us (in figures) your theory.

The fact is that you cannot increase prices if people don't have additional money. So if you are a monopoly and you want to increrase the price of the sugar, you must be sure that people will have money to pay for sugar at the new prices. So, take money out of the people's pocket and inflation will stop. Add money in people's pocket and the inflation will rise. I told you, it's in Karl Marx books since it's simply math.

DGerber, please, make figures in this site using the GDP and explain to us (in figures) your theory.
54 yankeeboy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 02:49 pm Report abuse
52. Most of the posters from EU are former communist terrorists that fled like the filthy rats they are to the warm socialistic embrace of northern europe in the 70s. They are too scared to go back to South America.
That is why they don't know the reality of the present and have such bizarre notions of economics.
It is too bad the Junta didn't take care of them when they had the chance
55 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 03:03 pm Report abuse
@Yanqkeeboy

I don't agree with you. I'm living in Canada now, very far from Argentina. I came here looking for a better present and future. But it's funny to see how people in my country stall don't understand basic economic things.

Honestly, I would like to see DGerber's theory in figures, with his GDP, the monetary base and to see how we can explain his theory. I'm waiting.

In addition, DGerber, don't laugh about my data, I took them from the official BCRA site. By doing this you laught about the official figures.
56 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 03:12 pm Report abuse
I am curious pgerman, how did you manage to immigate to Canada? The USA and Canada are both fairly hard. Not accusing or of anything illegal, but I have Argentine people that it is taking forever.
57 yankeeboy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 03:22 pm Report abuse
Cap, It is much easier to immigrate to Canada than the USA(unfortunately). You just have to live in the under-populated provinces for awhile.
PG, I wasn't talking about you, it was the personas of Stevie, Think, DB all the people who have not seen Argentina in 40 yrs and have no idea that it is again being destroyed.
58 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 04:11 pm Report abuse
@CP. Going to Canada legally was not a problem at all for me. It must have been because I'n engineer and I have a couple of Masters or because my level of English was good....really I don't know but I had issued all the mandatory paperwork and in a year time I got my residence (federal) visa. I believe it's more difficult to get the residence VISA in USA. But I don't know either.

@yankeeboy. I know what you mean but I don not agree either. I'm sorry. The militars made plenty of mistakes, commited crimes and put us in a war (FI in 1982). In addition, they reached political agreements with the Peronist party to get impunity. TG Raul Alfonsin won that election but his management of the economy was very poor too. I'm sorry, I don't want to ofend you but I have never liked the militars.
59 Truth_Tellіng_Trοll (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 04:26 pm Report abuse
57
“the personas of Stevie, Think, DB all the people who have not seen Argentina in 40 yrs and have no idea that it is again being destroyed.”

Your opinion doesn't count since you don't live there, your not from there, you didn't grow up there blah blah blab
It is childish and an embarrassing way to debate
It proves nothing and is a waste of effort making the contributor look like an idiot

;)
60 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 06:22 pm Report abuse
If it is childish do not comment.
61 Think (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 07:03 pm Report abuse
(43) Captain Poppy

You tell me…:
”My wife was one who spent 25 years of her life scrapping a little extra money to put into retirement......they stole it.

I say:
Firstly, the private pension system started in Argentina in 1993 and was re-nationalized in 2008.
Therefore, your wife (or anybody else in Argentina) can MAXIMALLY have paid 15 years to a Private Pension Fund… NOT 25.

Secondly, the Sub-Prime crisis had nearly killed all the private pension funds in Argentina during 2007.
Your wife (and many millions Argentineans were on the brink of getting the same pensions as the Enron ex-employees are getting today... That's a big O as far as I'm informed....)

Thirtly, I don’t doubt for a second that your wife has waited too long for some bureaucratic papers but…..... If she can prove that she did contribute 15 years to a Private Pension Fund (and 10 years to the State Pension Fund) she will, eventually get the Argentinean Pension that she has earned…..

Nobody has stolen anything from her…..

Yours
El Think, Chubut, Argentina
62 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 07:19 pm Report abuse
By November of year 2012 a little more than 60% of the retirement funds had been taken by the Government and were bonds issued to fund the fiscal deficit, the social plans (including subsidises to foreign people that have never paid a tax before) and some private developements through credits from the public funds to big coorporations (IE: General Motors plant).

Since then onwards these funds have been used to finance some YPF projects and other delusions of CFK.

One of the worse things is that as the official inflation is 10% but the real one is 25/30% the funds (and its owners, the retired people) will be clearly harmed since the “real” interest rates of the money is negative compare to inflation. So in the end, at the time of our retirements, we will have less money to be paid.
63 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 09:15 pm Report abuse
Yes......ok, 15 years, and that makes the theft better. I doubt she will ask for the pension, she now lives in the USA and has an IRA.
64 pgerman (#) Apr 22nd, 2013 - 11:31 pm Report abuse
I really would like to see DGerber's theory in figures, with the argentine GDP and the monetary base growth and see how he can explain his theory about the about the neutrality of an 40% increase of the monetary base in 12 months.

Mr, Think, assuming that you share his point of views, please would you explain Mr DGerber's theory?
65 DanyBerger (#) Apr 23rd, 2013 - 08:17 am Report abuse
@pgerman

You are absolutely wrong, mate. And its not just a theory it is a business fact.

If the demand of whatever commodity, etc lets say sugar or water is 100 kg or 100 litres in the market and I can control the supply of it and lets say that I only sell 70 kg or 70 litres the price will rise.

Because simple I can charge more for less. Demand is elastic and perhaps someone will consume less water or sugar, someone will buy more for fear of shortage, etc.

As soon the rumour of a shortage of something starts to become true in people minds, many people will try to buy more to keep it even if they will not use it in the short term and I of course will rise my price even more.

What I’m creating here is a transfer of resources people having the same money will use more of it to buy water and sugar and will not expend it for example in the bingo, casino or in new holiday in Miami. Ha ha

So what you have discovered right now here? That inflation can be caused by shortage of supply without increasing the monetary supply. Anyone with some experience in business knows that.

My theory? What theory?

If you have a GDP of x1000 you can print currency to reach that value without any devaluation or cause for inflation. After all currency is useable for that? Isn’t it.

Currency or money supply has to be in equilibrium with the size of your economy but that get distorted when you have bankers in the middle because they profit from the shortage, expansion and control of the money supply.

Why bankers never complain when money creation is made trough their banks by credits?

BTW you didn’t answer my question about what is the GDP for the current year for Argentina in USD.

And you didn’t post the link of the balance of the BCRA either, any reason?

@Pgerman
I will give you the figures when you post the links I asked above. Because your are parroting Clarin Miente, La Destruccion, Infobae, etc without any clue.
66 Anglotino (#) Apr 23rd, 2013 - 09:15 am Report abuse
Thanks Dany for that lesson on SUPPLY SHOCK inflation.

Unfortunately for you that is not the problem in Argentina.

No one knows what Argentina's GDP really is because the Argentinean government lies about all its statistics.

At market rates in US$ it is definitely now smaller than Colombia's.
67 DanyBerger (#) Apr 23rd, 2013 - 12:02 pm Report abuse
@Anglotino

You are absolutely wrong because you only read crappy news and that is the reason why you don't understand in the big financial mess UK is today.

Don't panic say George Osborne I'm not panicking...

May be because he is already terrified?

Even with the cuts debt grows and a faster speed in UK.
Why?
Any logic explanation guys?
68 pgerman (#) Apr 23rd, 2013 - 12:28 pm Report abuse
DBerger

The article refers to the Argentine debt and doesn't mention the UK debt, so, please, let's discuss about the Argentine economic crisis.

Your explanation about the origin of inflation through the lack of commodities is simply the same as comparing whether a glass of water is half full or half empty. It is not a valid explanation for the existence of inflation because it (ultimately) comes down to the same problem. Excess of money.

Anyway inflation (in this case) is generated by excessive money growth over GDP growth. All countries do that but at logic levels (1, 2 or 3% per year). Not any country in the World increases its monetary base 37% in 12 months without taking into account the inflation this will cause. I'm sorry, but your explanation not only contradicts economic theorists (from Marx to classics ones) but it doesn’t have reasonableness.

Concerning your “theory” that a country can print money to equate the value of its GDP still do not understand how it applies to the Argentine case. That’s why I asked you to do your own numbers (including the current argentine GDP you ask me to show you) so we can understand your proposal.

So, please, as I showed you my figures to prove the real reserves of the BCRA, I urge you to explain to us with your figures your “theory”.

Basically, because I'm intrigued to see the reasonableness of your proposal with the figures you might consider actual one in the current argentine economy.

For the time being, I found some contradictions that would make your proposal wrong but I would like to see your figures to fully understand you.

On the other hand, let me tell you that I do not read Clarín. I hope you don't read Pag 12 or you do not see “6, 7 & 8” otherwise you will live in a paralell world.

Please, I'm waiting for YOUR figures with your data.
69 Anglotino (#) Apr 23rd, 2013 - 11:54 pm Report abuse
DanyBerger (which sounds like dunnyburger in Strine)

I'm not British.

At least people believe British statistics.

As usual you avoid the question.

So back to Argentina's no growth, high inflation model.
70 Captain Poppy (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 12:40 am Report abuse
Anglotino most know you're an Aussie, but it's like these virtual trolls were so traumatized by the Brits ass kicking in 82, they seem to believe everyone is a Brit.
71 pgerman (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 01:34 am Report abuse
We were supposed to be discussing about Argebtibe reserves, when Mr. DBerger mentiones his theory to explain inflation. We were not discussing about the dollar in USA and the world, or the British debt.
As I'm a professional I really would like to read his explanation in detail and with figures to evaluate it with critic eyes.
72 DanyBerger (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 12:03 pm Report abuse
@pgerman

You say that Argentina has an economic crisis right? based on what?
That is absolutely wrong and I will show you that with figures.

I will use IMF figures for GDP so you don’t complain.
Argentina GDP 2013

According with IMF in Local currency $2,57 trillions in US OER USD 500,187bn
According with IMF current price USD $498.698 (seem the guys appreciate de value of dollar in the process of adding a new row in the DB) ha ha
According with IMF PPP USD 776.284bn

Per capita USD 19.350,45

Unemployment rate 7.2%

Public debt: 41.6%

Monetary base: USD41bn (official figures) USD50bn reported from other sources taken a bad OER

Exports: $85.36 bn (2012)
Imports: $67.33 bn (2012)

Reserves of foreign currency and gold: $41.2 billion

BCRA net worth 74bn (active assets)

External debt: USD 130.1 bn

Well I will not post all indicators but with this you can see that there isn’t any economic crisis in Argentina on the contrary.

Now let’s assume you are right about Argentina increased of MS. But you said that no country in the world increases it monetary base at 37% in 12 months. Right?

Well you are again absolutely wrong US and UK have done so.

US had increased its monetary base in 220% in 5 years from 2007 to 2012 an average speed of 44% per 12 month.

And UK increased its monetary base in 320% since 2007 to 2012 at fast speed of 64% per 12 month.

So if I am wrong and you and Milton Fridman is right tell me why US and UK are not reporting Hyper inflation Weimar Republic style?

Ah! you don’t have any logical answer right?

Still no Lebcas in the part referred to “Reserves in FC” in the weekly balance of the BCRA.

Can you show me the one you have with Lebacs, Nobacs, Novortril, Rivotril, etc. you have, pleaseeeee?

BTW you are engineer on what?
Do you know something about robotics, Gcode, CNM, Rams, etc?
Delta Robots perhaps?
Now you can evaluate me with your critical eyes, mate.
73 pgerman (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 03:05 pm Report abuse
@DBerger,

What was your “theory”? It was that you can print as much money as the GDP. Right?
Ok, it will take me some hours to analize the firures basically to if they are connected with the “theory”.

But let me add some data:

The IMF uses the official data of the countries, that's the reason why, I.E., at the beginning of this year the expected inflation of Argentina (in the IMF web site) was...rounding 10% !!!

In addition, if the unemployment is so low (similar to the unemployment in Germany) I don't understand why the percentage of the “economically active population” with bank account is a little bit inferior to 40%. And you know what? This rate was batter in year 2009 than in years 2010 and 2011.
How is that there is just the mere of 7% of unemployment but just 40% of people with bank account? Take into account that in Argentina it is mandatory to collect your salary through a bank account.

As regard the income per capita, even the PPP, is affected by the real value of the U$D. Yesterday the dolar reached the value of AR$ 8.86 but the official one was AR$ 5.18. So....what's the actual income per capita? the one calculated with an official (and ficticious dollar) or the one estimated with the actual one.

Another question: If Argentina has so small international debt.Why is the Risk Coutry so high? (we are almost World cahmpions..). Why has the country been in “default” for the last 11 years? (another world record).

Please, I ask you for some time to see if you are trying to prove your “theory” or if you are trying to confused all of us with fake data as Peronist usually do.
74 Truth_Tellіng_Trοll (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 03:43 pm Report abuse
“Unemployment rate 7.2%”

...and now it is down to 6.9% for 1st 3 months of 2013, thanks to our biggest employer and fastest growing industry:

mytinyurl.com/n0f9bv1qhv
75 pgerman (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 04:18 pm Report abuse
@DBerger

In addition, the CORRECT growth of the US monetary base is right now: 10.62% Chg Yr for Mar 2013.

Anyway, it doesn't have any sense to compare the US monetary situation to the Argentine one. The world needs US and nobody wants argentine pesos. Even internally people rejects them. Every single time I travel to Argentina people ask me “do you have some canadian dollar to change?” So. do I have to explain to you this “little difference”?
76 MagnusMaster (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 04:38 pm Report abuse
@57 it´s no wonder it´s so easy to emigrate to Canada when it´s so cold. I was on Chicago during a winter and I was almost freezing to death. I can´t imagine what Canada is like during a winter.
77 pgerman (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 04:46 pm Report abuse
Chicago is much colder than the western coast of Canada during winter. In addition, Chicago is extremenly windy.
78 Anglotino (#) Apr 24th, 2013 - 10:25 pm Report abuse
No one believes Argentine statistics, not even the IMF. They might have to publish them but they have clearly stated they don't believe them.

In addition PPP is a formula and doesn't work for Argentina at the moment. If Dany understood PPP he would know why.

Argentina is in a recession.
Inflation is skyrocketing
Unemployment is climbing.
Savings are shrinking.
Poverty is growing.

And INDEC is lying.
79 pgerman (#) Apr 25th, 2013 - 02:42 am Report abuse
@DBerger

As I had said I would took my time to read, after my working time, your message posted and sadly I had not found any racional explanation, either theoretical or numerical, that the monetary base can grow to match the GDP without generating inflation.

You just posted dubious figures taken from the IFM web site that were originated in the INDEC of Argentina.

On the other hand, I did a little research on this topic and I found that USA has a monetary base/GDP ratio of 19%, the UK of 21%, Japan has 23% and, finally, Australia has a ratio of 5%.

Given the seriousness of the monetary authorities of these countries, and their reasonable inflation levels, I do not understand how someone can think reasonable to increase the ratio until reaching the 100%.

I guess that are the kind of fantasies that you are indoctrinated in La Campora's meetings.

Gentleman, if you have any rational explanation about why the monetary base may be in 100% of GDP, please, for the last time, I urge you to explain it to me. Basically, for my evaluation and analysis.

On the other hand, today Argentina lived another day of monetary and financial nightmare. The parallel dollar reached 8.96 pesos and the offiical one reached 5.19 pesos. How can anyone invest, do business or develop an industry in these conditions? It's a free fall !!!!
80 DanyBerger (#) Apr 25th, 2013 - 11:45 am Report abuse
“I don't understand why the percentage of the “economically active population” with bank account is a little bit inferior to 40%... Take into account that in Argentina it is mandatory to collect your salary through a bank account.” Wrong!!!!

1- The law 26590 of (LCT article 103) and its modification only make mandatory the payment of the employer and cites different ways of payments like: Cash, species, accommodation, bonus, etc (Article 105 LCT).
The law per se privileges the payment in cash as its provides more freedom to the workers but also limited the use of other methods (Article 107 LCT, Art, 124, etc). Also the law provides the way to pay trough direct deposits among others like cheques, etc. For safety reason but its not compulsory otherwise free to choose by the company and employees in agreement,etc. The worker can anytime ask the full payment in cash even if the company uses other methods and cannot refuse.

Here extract of the law 26590 of CT talking about this.. biblioteca.afip.gob.ar/gateway.dll/Normas/Leyes/ley_c_026590_2010_05_04.xml
Signed JULIO C. C. COBOS. - EDUARDO A. FELLNER. - Enrique Hidalgo. - Juan H. Estrada.

Capisce cappo why people like you are manipulated by media news?

I’m not peronist and in fact I knew the existence of “La campora” by the posts here. Wrong!!!!

“The IMF uses the official , bla, bla” wrong!!!

So why IMF is questioning the IPC of Argentina if they just use official data?

They should stamp it into a row on DB and that’s it no further comments. Period.

They use other source as private consultants and it is explained in some part of the data. They only questioning the IPC no the GDP or any other data. Wrong!!!!

If you would know what money is you wouldn’t be asking about “my theory”.

Also ask someone to help you to read balances because you have no clue about it.

Did I forget something here?

I hope nope
Sorry no enough chars to expalin in deep.
81 pgerman (#) Apr 25th, 2013 - 01:03 pm Report abuse
@DBerger.

You are wrong when you mentione that it's not mandatory, for companies, to pay salaries through bank accounts. It is. The issue is that in Argentina, for the stats, people like “cartoneros”, other informal workers, or “unemployed with subsidies” are considered employed people. So unemployment stats are so fake as inflation ones.

IMF does use the official stats of a country. That's the reason why if you had checked the inflation expectatives in the IMF web site the for years 2013 and 2014 you would see that they are expecto to be less than 10%....

You mentioned that the monetary base/GDP ratio can be 100% so as it is a theory of your own making you must explain it.

The fact is that you, as all the peronists, don't have any idea about issues you like to discuss about or to write about in forums. So, in the end, you cannot technically explain them.

The sad thing is that you made us waste our time waiting for a technical and serious explanation.

By the way, I suggest you run, go to an exchange bussiness as soon as possible and change all your argentine pesos for dollars. Basically because a rate of AR$ 9 per dollar is still cheap. Take advantage of the time a save some of your money now that you can. Tomorrow it will be more expensive.

If you truly believe that Argentina is not in a crisis I urge you to save in pesos and put your saving in a shoe-box and keep them there for a couple of years. Let's see !!!
82 DanyBerger (#) Apr 25th, 2013 - 03:26 pm Report abuse
@pgerman

You know more than lawyers, solicitors, accountants and the law itself that it quite clear?


“Artículo 124: Las remuneraciones en dinero debidas al trabajador deberán pagarse, bajo pena de nulidad, en efectivo,....”

Can you read above “Efectivo” (cash) and cheques convertible into cash? Nothing about that is compulsory that the worker has to have a bank account.

Below the article ends with “En todos los casos el trabajador podrá exigir que su remuneración le sea abonada en efectivo.”

Translation: In all cases the worker can demand the remuneration (payment) to be paid in cash.
No more to say I guess, this is irrefutable by any mean even tough with your funnies interpretations about everything.

How can I explain to you how currency works if you don’t know the basic concept of this?
I will be here for a year.

You will need to read a lot from history back to Jerusalem and the money changers, middle age and how by accident the goldsmiths in England started the Fractional banking system, see all crisis due to currency manipulation. How King Henry I controlled the speculators and moneychangers that where causing inflation and recession by introducing the Tally Stick system (a piece of wood with notches) as a tool to the Exchequer used as a currency to collect taxes. That provides the base of the British Empire. The creation of the BoE, etc, etc, etc.

Then you will understand more easy how currency works and how easy is to manipulate its value, etc.

Thanks for you advise my pesos are been multiply quite well because I don’t play the casino game, I let this for technical experts like you.

Sorry I will not buy dollar this time may I will buy yours for 10% of its current value when the dollar collapse. I buy when people sell and sell when people buy.

Y vos me quires empomar a mi?
83 pgerman (#) Apr 25th, 2013 - 04:32 pm Report abuse
DBerger, you are the typical fanatical Peronist who can see neither the reality nor what is happening in front of their own eyes

As I have already told you, now (at this hour) dollar is more expensive than yesterday: AR$ 9.12 per dollar.

Take care that in half an hour it will be more expensive.

The more you wait the more you lose !!!..go go go run for your savings !!!

Your are the typycal
84 DanyBerger (#) Apr 26th, 2013 - 05:11 am Report abuse
@pgerman

Well let’s see...

1- What part of I’m not “Peronist” you don’t understand mate?

2- You failed to provide any proof about the amount of the Reserves in foreign currency and gold of the BCRA.
You say that you take that figure from the “Resumen semanal of the BCRA” still no Lebacs in it as you can se in the Item RiFC&G

Here it is total Reserves in foreign currency and gold $206,075,358.000= USD 40,170bn (official Exchange Rate $5.13=1 USD 25/04/2013)

International reserves
Gold 14,007,576
Cash 11,230,453
Position in FC 180,592,947
MCA 244,382
Less:
DIoR:0
Total $206,075,358 (in thousand of pesos)
www.bcra.gov.ar/pdfs/contad/econ0200.pdf

3- You also showed no understanding about ARG law of CT 26590 and you keep insisting that its compulsory to pay workers through a bank account.

4- You also failed to provide any evidence of financial crisis in Argentina.

5- You also failed to provide figures of Arg GDP, RoIFC&G, ED, E/I, etc.

6- You also fail to understand how to read a balance and also who currency and the economy works. You only repeat titles from crappy media.

7-You recommend to buy dollars in a no existent market where there are not buyers and also it is illegal like the cocaine market. BTW the cocaine was up did you buy it?

So what do we have here?

Another viewer of Colpo Grosso
Cin cin
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvuFH1-AkcA

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