With the help from shale oil, the United States is the world's largest producer of oil in 2013, according to data presented at PIRA Energy Group's recent Retainer Client Seminar held in New York City.
The US has surged to be the world's lead oil supplier because of growth in shale oil. Shale crude and condensate production at 2.5 MMB/D in 2013 is now slightly over one-third of total US crude production, and shale NGL at 1.2 MMB/D is almost half of total Natural Gas Liquids (NGL).
US total supply for 2013 is expected to average 12.1 MMB/D. In 2012 the US overtook Russia to become the second largest supplier of oil and was just behind Saudi Arabia. Both the US and Saudi Arabia increased their supply in 2013, though production in the US grew at a faster pace. US total supply in 2013 is larger than that of Saudi Arabia by 0.3 MMB/D and ahead of Russia by 1.6 MMB/D. The fourth through 10th largest suppliers are: China, Canada, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Mexico.
Total oil supply counts all forms of liquids supply. The largest part is crude oil, including condensates. In this category, the US is expected to produce 7.4 MMB/D, which is less than that produced in Saudi Arabia and Russia by roughly 3 MMB/D each. But the US has substantial other forms of supply, including natural gas liquids (NGLs) at 2.5 MMB/D, bio-fuels at 1.0 MMB/D, and refinery gain at almost 1.3 MMB/D. (Refinery gain measures the ability of a refinery to optimize its output through sophisticated high conversion capabilities).
US total supply growth in 2013 is seen at 1.0 MMB/D and about the same as last year's growth. Its growth rate is greater than the sum of the growth of the next nine fastest growing countries combined and has covered most of the world's net demand growth over the past two years.
According to PIRA the US position as the largest oil supplier in the world looks to be secured for many years. Although growth rates of US shale liquids are expected to become smaller in the future, PIRA's forecast sees the US increasing the lead over the next two largest countries until after 2020 a