Monday, December 2nd 2013 - 16:29 UTC

Argentina concerned with 'US and UK national debt and monetary basis'

Argentina's cabinet chief on Monday hit back at the United States reacting to comments from the White House on the Argentine central bank reserves saying he was worried about the US and UK debt levels, “the US debt reaches over 100% of GDP”.

Cabinet chief Capitanich reacted to Washington’s concerns

 “We have expressed our concern regarding the US because its public debt is over 100% of GDP and because they have trebled their monetary base. Similarly with the UK which has increased five-fold its monetary basis, and has had no impact on inflation. Nobody has mentioned that Argentina has reduced its monetary basis 50%”, said Jorge Capitanich in his daily briefing at Government House in Buenos Aires.

According to La Nacion, the White House expressed concern because of the drop in the Argentine central bank international reserves and warned that the government should implement quick measures to address the situation. The US officials suggested that an agreement of Argentina with the Club of Paris, on the pending debt, could help the country recover some international financing.

However Capitanich said that the renegotiation of Argentina's foreign debt (following the default, and which was done in two stages 2005 and 2010) was 'the most successful in history' and added that “75% of the Argentine reserves have gone to pay debts, almost 178 billion dollars in the last decade, and debt not contracted by the current government”.

He went on to say that this gained autonomy helped “Argentina achieve the strongest growth in Latin America which among other things created six million jobs”.

“Thanks to this policy and the renegotiation of sovereign debt, I repeat the most successful in history, it has enabled that the adjustment of which everyone preaches did not fall on the back of the Argentine people, but more precisely that avoided adjustment saved the Argentine people and created jobs and better working conditions”, underlined Capitanich.

Apparently Washington is not convinced about the latest measures adopted by Argentina and is waiting to see how Capitanich and his team address the loss of reserves which has been over 15bn since the implementation of the dollar clamp in 2011. International reserves in Argentina now stand below the 30bn mark and with no immediate prospect of change.

Although the Obama administration applauded and praised Argentina's recent decision to reach an agreement with several companies that had pending credits to collect from favorable rulings at the World Bank arbitration tribunal, it is now waiting for a similar action with the Club of Paris which involves 9 billion dollars (capital plus interest).

The share of the US in that package is low, 500 million dollars, but Japan and Germany expect to collect 2bn dollars each and they have lost patience with Argentina.

Washington has suggested that if Argentina moves in that direction, paying creditors, it would reconsider its negative vote to grant her credits, at the World Bank and Inter American Development Bank boards. Furthermore Argentina could then have access to Eximbank funds.

Likewise next Monday December 9, the IMF will reconsider Argentina's case regarding inflation and GDP stats, and check if effectively the country has advanced as promised on those issues ahead of 2014. Apparently Washington favors giving Argentina another break of six months and unconfirmed news have said that the new indexes unofficially shown to representatives from other countries, received an approval sign. It waits to see how the Argentine government will implement the new stats which should confirm an annual inflation of 25%, as marked by several provinces, and not 10% by the Cristina Fernandez administration.

Finally Washington is also concerned about Argentina's strategy in its battle with the hedge (vulture) funds. Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton who represent Argentina in the litigation case should be more emphatic appealing to the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act and showing the danger for New York as a leading financial market, according to Buenos Aires media reports that interviewed the State and Treasury departments sources.

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1 The Truth PaTroll (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 04:37 pm Report abuse
Sad Argentina seems more aware of the problem than the idiots in Washignton DC and London.

If they think Argenina is heading towards a cliff, they are heading towards an ocean trench.
2 Lou Spoo (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 04:38 pm Report abuse

'Stamps feet''s not fair, their inflation hasn't gone up!
3 golfcronie (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 04:45 pm Report abuse
And the real inflation figures for Argentina are.....................anyone guess?
4 yankeeboy (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 04:58 pm Report abuse
That guy had a bad eye lift. He looks like a drag queen.

Distract Distract
Will the peso be 12 or 20/1 by eoy 2014
50% inflation in 2014

All is well!! All is well!!
5 Pugol-H (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:04 pm Report abuse
Increasing the money supply and no inflation, a clever trick if you can pull it off, surly this is Venezuela’s dream come true, except it’s not happening like that there.

Reduced the monetary basis 50%, and still got inflation at what 25-30%.

Something’s not quite right, is it Jorge?
6 ChrisR (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:05 pm Report abuse
I think this guy is typical of all Argentines, argie or sensible, who have fallen for the nonsense that is TMBOA “Model”.

Perhaps somebody should tell them that while some of them are thinking of a financial model, TMBOA and all her cohorts are thinking of a FASHION MODEL, the men want to shag her and TMBOA wants to wear her clothes. Or it seems that way to me when you consider the absolute arse faced actions they have wrought on the economy. They are close to being a busted flush. Instead of moaning all the while this twat needs to get a grip and change everything back to sensible policies and hope he is not too late.

It is ludicrous in the extreme to compare the US economy with the advantage of having the dollar brings and the UK which has loaned billions to other countries to help them through the problems (and is awaiting repayment) with Argentina whose motto has to be:

7 inthegutter (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:09 pm Report abuse

1) Our debt is not even close (in terms of percentage of GDP) to its historical highs. Same with our interest repayments.

2) Argentina is only not crushed by debt because it reneged on it all in 2001.

3) (might be of interest to #4 as well). Have a look at do you see the exponential decline in the value of the Peso? Scary eh?
8 Captain Poppy (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:11 pm Report abuse
Press: What do you say about world concerns of your reserves?

Capitanich: Reserves? WTF! What troubles me is UK and USA Debt

Press: Their debt troubles you?

Capitanich: But of course it does.

Press: why is that?

Capitanich: What idiots take on debt and ACTUALLY pays it back?

Press: Isn’t that what you do with loans?

Capitanich: Well….technically speaking. Those buffoons are making us deadbeat borrowers look bad.

Press: What about the accelerating depreciation of the peso?

Capitanich: (sheeeeesh!)….peso! PESO!…..what troubles me is the low inflation in the UK and USDA and…………………..
9 ChrisR (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:21 pm Report abuse
@ 7 inthegutter

The chart you reference is somewhat misleading. In the last twelve months the AR Pesos has moved 1 in 5 which is 20%, by no means exponential.

It’s crap, but not exponential: YET! But they are working on it.
10 toxictaxitrader2 (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 05:25 pm Report abuse
Your worried?!!not as much as me I can assure you,thats why I,m swapping into gold and small properties.P.S. if you fall into an ocean trench the pressure at the bottom will pop you right back up again,interesting analogy what?
11 inthegutter (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 06:17 pm Report abuse
#9 Hey Chris, I'm not so sure:

The year on year increase is almost exponential if you look at the values. The increase each year has doubled since 2011

2011 - 4
2012 - 4.3 + 0.3 increase
2013 - 4.9 + 0.6 increase
2014 - 6.2 + 1.3 increase

This is well approximated by:

12 Optimus_Princeps (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 06:29 pm Report abuse
The U.S. has a different set of problems. They are over-expanding their money supply with toxic derivatives. They also have a corrupt government, but CFK's people make them look like altar boys by comparison. At least there is free trade which does make goods and services readily available and low sales tax.

Here, the kickbacks for disgusting government thieves are doubling and tripling the prices of certain commodities, and making others inaccessible. They dilute the value of people's assets through derivatives in the US, but here they steal the actual assets.

Watering down someone's coffee isn't the same as stealing it altogether. This guy should worry about competing with Venezuela in a race to the bottom.
13 pgerman (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 06:53 pm Report abuse
AHHHHAAAAAAA !!!!....A ha ha ha ha ha...

“We have expressed our concern regarding the US because its public debt is over 100% of GDP and because they have trebled their monetary base. Similarly with the UK which has increased five-fold its monetary basis, and has had no impact on inflation. Nobody has mentioned that Argentina has reduced its monetary basis 50%”

”Thanks to this policy and the renegotiation of sovereign debt, I repeat the most successful in history“....this guy is fucking crazy !!!

This Capitanich is just another liege of the many that rule some peronist provinces. Argentina staill has plenty of feudalism...and he is a brilliant example of it.'s your time to explain your theory !!!...go ahead, you may be awarded with the Nobel Price....don't miss the chance.

TTT..I want to read your writings ”we don't care you“, ”we don't need Europe“, ”we don't need the USA“, ”we don't need the World”, etc....

Think, what about you?
14 ChrisR (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 07:33 pm Report abuse
@ 11 inthegutter
“The year on year increase is almost exponential if you look at the values”

True, it’s almost (not quite).

Sorry, but I am of the old school where exponents are powers. 3 / 6 / 12 are not.

But we are both correct that they will soon be true exponent values and then see it go.
15 Briton (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 07:41 pm Report abuse
Good old Argentina,
We can always rely on them to cheer us all up,

When we all collapse in despair,
We can all go to Argentina and have ourselves a parrrty,

16 CabezaDura (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 08:40 pm Report abuse
I think most of this Capitanich propaganda as the new handy man that will solve the mess the country is in all so far proven cosmetic and superficial, even though hardline Cristinist sectors are pulling away and in silence.
17 Orbit (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 10:04 pm Report abuse
Interesting to see that two weeks into the 'new media openess' project, the script isn't holding up and he's already getting flustered by questions, thus resorting to emotional whataboutery.

@16 From what I read on Argentine media forums (albeit translated) I would agree with you. Just like on here the majority don't buy it, but a few shouty people deflect and pretend its all good.
18 ljb (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 10:38 pm Report abuse

Without the shadow of a doubt, this is the funniest thing I have ever read. I can't help but wonder what the Argentine government is trying to hide by coming out with this.
19 Falkland Islands (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 11:38 pm Report abuse
The biggest downfall of Argentines, they actually believe what they dream.
20 Lord Ton (#) Dec 02nd, 2013 - 11:55 pm Report abuse
Paris Club, IMF, World Bank, USA - so everyone belives that Argentina is in financial trouble EXCEPT Argentina ........ says it all :-)
21 Oder 1001 (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 09:14 am Report abuse
Argentina`s Peso is possibly going to lose 50% of its value in the next six months and they are concerned about us? just proves the point they won`t deal with reality.
22 Room101 (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 09:31 am Report abuse
Sounds like he is trying to blame someone else for the predicament.
23 Musky (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 09:38 am Report abuse
And Capitanich went on to say “and never mind about the economy of Argentina, what I'm really worried about is the rising prices of kebabs in Turkmenistan, it's simply shocking!”
24 Mendoza Canadian (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 10:21 am Report abuse
The government slogan of “Un pais de buena gente” left out the best part...and a government of idiots.
25 downunder (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 10:26 am Report abuse
OH! Does that mean I should buy Argentine currency instead of US$ or GBP to take on my next overseas trip?
26 Clyde15 (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 10:54 am Report abuse
“”if they think Argenina is heading towards a cliff,“”
If you fall over a cliff you are dead
“”they are heading towards an ocean trench“”.
If you fall into the sea, you can swim
27 Conqueror (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 11:05 am Report abuse
So many “in” witticisms from, no doubt, knowledgeable experts. But could we “simplify” matters? UK and USA are developed countries with well-run and respected economies. Plus a long history of repaying their debts. By comparison, argieland is, at best, developing. Its “economy” is neither well-run nor respected. Its only “long history” is of lying, defaults and refusing to pay its debts.
@25 Only if you want to spend days trying to get someone to take the crap off your hands! But it can, temporarily, make you feel wealthy. A$100 and you can have 560 pesos or more. Problem comes when you try to turn the peso into something you can spend. You might only get the equivalent of A$50 back!
28 Gordo1 (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 01:29 pm Report abuse
Yours is bigger than mine! ¡Qué macho!
29 Marc1 (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 01:43 pm Report abuse
Now that Moreno's gone, political commentary in Argentina is not half as interesting.
30 Brit Bob (#) Dec 03rd, 2013 - 02:00 pm Report abuse
Stop press - Argentina falls 4 places in the Global Transparency Index, down to 106th place sandwiched in between Moldova and Gabon. Lol.
31 DanyBerger (#) Dec 04th, 2013 - 06:07 am Report abuse

“matters? UK and USA are developed countries with well-run and respected economies. Plus a long history of repaying their debts.”


Not even Idiot Camoron can believe that.

Have you noted that UK is falling each year an average of one position among other economies?

UK Oops!!!!
32 downunder (#) Dec 04th, 2013 - 07:44 am Report abuse
UK Oops!!!!
etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc,

And the Argentine appears where on this list?
33 inthegutter (#) Dec 04th, 2013 - 08:16 pm Report abuse
#31 Dany - You're a liar, or, at the very least, have used a selective GDP measure (though not one I can find).

If you choose nominal GDP (as estimated by the IMF) then the UK was:

2010 - 6th
2011 - 7th
2012 - 6th
2013 - 6th

(i.e. has NOT dropped “an average of one position among other economies” each year as you claim). In fact it has dropped two places in the last 12 years.

Even if you use PPP instead of nominal the trend is almost flat:

2010 - 7th
2011 - 8th
2012 - 8th
2013 - 8th

So Dany you are a liar, and not a very good one. Not to mention that all the countries above us have higher populations and the recent countries to overtake us have higher population growth (in part driving the increase in GDP).

And yes, where is Argentina? 26th (nominal) and 22nd (PPP).
34 DanyBerger (#) Dec 05th, 2013 - 08:43 am Report abuse

!Mexico and Indonesia to eclipse UK’s GDP by 2050! According with PwC

“THE UK is on a slow economic slide that will see it fall out of the world’s 10 biggest economies by 2050, PwC predicted this morning.

In 2011, the last year for which there is complete data, the UK economy was *** ninth biggest*** in the world, measured by GDP corrected for differences in prices, but it will fall to 11th by 2050, the accounting giant said...”

Can you read above ninth and not six as you say?

Also can you see also that this article has based the UK economy falling prediction with an average growth for UK of 2%? Well UK has not sings to archive that in the near future, so the falling is even worse.

So do you think that PwC also is lying and this is a plot between them and me?
35 inthegutter (#) Dec 05th, 2013 - 09:03 am Report abuse

*** ninth biggest*** in the world, measured by GDP corrected for differences in prices”

Equates to GDP (PPP) which the IMF estimated the UK being 8th - as I pointed out above - which is not so different from 9th, especially when you consider 7th, 8th, and 9th are not widely separated.

Face it Dany you lied about the UKs fall, or at the very least you were wrong. Care to admit it? In fact if you look at the historical records in 1980 we were 8th.

With regards to Mexico and Indonesia, these are developing countries. A key property of developing countries is that their economies are naturally growing faster than developed countries. Combined with their larger populations (Mexico is double the UK and Indonesia is 3.5 times the UK) I would HOPE their economies surpass the UK.

You're utter hatred of the UK rears its head again Dany. How's that inflation going?
36 Clyde15 (#) Dec 05th, 2013 - 09:50 am Report abuse
Never mind Dany, we appreciate your concern, but we are still singing a happy song. After all, what must it be like to be in Argentina .
37 DanyBerger (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 12:58 am Report abuse

The problem with you mate is that you use a different bar to measure UK falling and Argentina falling...

First you use per capita income from 1939/40/ etc to establish that Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world. That is true but partially because the world was in war especially in Europe and all mayor economies have collapsed.

Now if I take the same example lets 1930 when Britain was the bigger economic power in the world using the same method PPP (as the per capita of teh Argies in that era), etc for you is not valid.

Well it is!

No you insist that according with IMF UK economy is 8th and not 9th well we all know that IMF is not a very trusted source of information.

They were reporting during the ’80 the economy of Argentina to 50bn when in reality was 4 time more.
Also they were reporting the economy of China with similar values of that of the Russia during the ‘90. Now magically China has become the 2nd larger economy in the world. How that was possible?

IMF was reporting the Argentina GDP for 2007 just U$s$253bn, measured in OER with deflator (no inflation here) but for 2011 they reported U$s400.363 so according with them Argentina had growth 58.24% magically in 4 years with an average growth of 14,56% per year.

No convinced yet?

IMF is reporting for 2012 a GDP for Argentina of U$s461.634bn (OER with deflator) and his prediction for 2013 is the U$s534.189bn 15,72% growth.

Can you explain us how that could be possible when even the exchange rate against US dollar was falling?

Its is very easy they are at least delaying the real figures 2 years and then the have to adjust it by any mean because their number are hilarious.

UK still falling like stone among the rest of world despite Argentina.

38 inthegutter (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 09:23 am Report abuse

Firstly, I have never mentioned Argentina falling so I don't know what you're rattling on about.

Secondly, the IMF information comes from Argentine sources reported to the IMF, for the most part it does not collect its own results. Did you read the note at the end of that link you sent me:

To quote: “The data for Argentina are officially reported data. The IMF has, however, issued a declaration of censure and called on Argentina to adopt remedial measures to address the quality of the official GDP data. Alternative data sources have shown significantly lower real growth than the official data since 2008. In this context, the Fund is also using alternative estimates of GDP growth for the surveillance of macroeconomic developments in Argentina.”

Thus the IMF results are only as good as those reported to the IMF. I have never heard of any systematic problems with the Office for National Statistics in the UK.

Tell me, where is your evidence to back up your claim that the UK is dropping one place every year?

Face it, you're wrong.
39 Clyde15 (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 12:09 pm Report abuse
How dare you confuse Dany with facts! Prejudice and innuendo rule OK
40 DanyBerger (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 02:24 pm Report abuse

What IMF says is not true because the information differ substantially from those reported by Argentina.

They are reporting less % GDP growth, less GDP in Pesos and in US dollars, and in constant prices, etc.

“But until “the quality of data reporting has improved, IMF staff will also use alternative measures of GDP growth and inflation for macroeconomic surveillance including estimates by: private analysts, which have shown growth that is, on average, significantly lower than official GDP growth from 2008 onward; and provincial statistical offices and private analysts, which have shown inflation considerably higher than the official inflation rate from 2007 onward”.”

No so far to look for just here in Mercopress

We investigate the political economy of IMF forecasts with data for 157 countries
(1999–2005). Generally, we find evidence of forecast bias in growth and inflation. Specif-
ically, we find that countries voting with the United States in the UN General Assembly
receive lower inflation forecasts as domestic elections approach. Countries with large loans
outstanding from the IMF also receive lower inflation forecasts, suggesting that the IMF en-
gages in “defensive forecasting.” Finally, countries with fixed exchange rate regimes receive
lower inflation forecasts, suggesting the IMF desires to preserve stability as inflation can
have detrimental effects under such an exchange rate regime”

“For countries that were less friendly to the United States, such as
Argentina, our model predicts a forecast bias in the other direction. With elections on the
horizon, we expect the IMF to over-inflate the inflation forecast by 0.4%, although in this
case the IMF actually did much worse, overpredicting by 34.6%.”

So as you can see they cook the book as they please
41 inthegutter (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 06:28 pm Report abuse
#40, uh huh, it's all a big conspiracy against Argentina, whatever.

But, where is the proof that the UK has dropped one place every year on average?
42 DanyBerger (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 08:42 pm Report abuse

I’m not saying that it is a just a “big conspiracy against Argentina” otherwise that IMF dictated policies to favour major contributors to the bank and that is a cartel of the international bankers.

So tomorrow if you go under IMF may be China banks will be telling you what to do trough IMF.
In fact polite they are starting to do so...

Anyway you area accusing me of liar and to manipulate data because according with you I hate UK. Right?

“So Dany you are a liar, and not a very good one”
“Face it Dany you lied about the UKs fall”

OK, lets suppose that you are right for a second...

Do you think that Lord Digby Jones is a “Liar” as you said and also is partnering with me to plot against UK????,_Baron_Jones_of_Birmingham

“Averaging out currency vagaries, the UK is the***5th largest*** economy on Earth; and yet …

The UK gave the world the global language of English; and yet …

We have the most open economy in the world. We're the location of choice for inward investment; Number Two in the World after America and Numero Uno in Europe; and yet …

Three of our Universities are in the Top Five in the World and no country on the Planet except the USA has more Universities in the Top Fifty; and yet …

We are on the verge of throwing away all those advantages; we are staring down the double barrels of social disintegration and economic relegation.”

“20% of the Adult population of our country cannot read to the standard expected of an 11 year old. Nearly a third of all adults in the UK cannot add up two three-figure numbers.”

So if you were 5th largest economy (according with Lord Digby Jones) in 2010 and now you are the 9th...

How many positions you have lost in 3/4 years?

43 inthegutter (#) Dec 06th, 2013 - 09:16 pm Report abuse
#42 Oh my god Dany, I really have got to stop replying to you if that's your argument. Basically, because some guy said the UK was 5th in 2010 and then you found, from a different source I may add, we were 9th in 2013. Is that really your argument?

These two disparate sources are comparing the two different measures of GDP, Baron Jones is obviously quoting the GDP (nominal) (which in 2013 we are 6th, and in 2010 were 6th according to the IMF). Where as your 9th place was GDP (PPP). Moreover I have no idea who this guy is and why he is better qualified than the IMF.

It really looks like you just googled to try and find the largest different with no understanding of the context just to try and make the UK look bad or justify your error/lie.

Come back to me with some reliable figures which at the very least quote the same method of calculating GDP.
44 DanyBerger (#) Dec 07th, 2013 - 03:50 am Report abuse

“These two disparate sources are comparing the two different measures of GDP, Baron Jones is obviously quoting the GDP”

Nope he is talking about output (PPP) that is the reason why he says in the beginning “Averaging out currency vagaries”

“Moreover I have no idea who this guy is and why he is better qualified than the IMF.”

Well that is a serious problem, where are you from?

“Digby Marritt Jones, Baron Jones of Birmingham, Kt. (born 28 October 1955), is a British businessman and politician, who has served as Director General of the CBI (2000–06) and Minister of State for Trade and Investment (2007–08). Lord Jones is currently a Business Ambassador at UK Trade & Investment.

He serves as Chairman of Triumph Motorcycles Limited, Deputy Chairman of Unipart Consultancy Division, Chairman of Grove Industries and a Non-executive Director Spicers Limited. He is Corporate Advisor to JCB, Advisor to BP plc, Senior Advisor to Harvey Nash plc and Business Advisor to Barberry Developments Limited. He is Chairman of the Emergency Services Advisory Board of Babcock International Group plc and Chairman of Neutrino Concepts Limited. He is a Corporate Ambassador for Jaguar Cars, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Jaguar Academy of Sport, a member of the Advisory Board of Monitise plc, Chairman of the Advisory Board of Argentex LLP, non-executive director of Leicester Tigers plc and Senior Advisor to ShP Limited.”

Just in case you also don’t know what is CBI (Confederation of British Industry)

“It really looks like you just googled to try and find the largest different with no understanding of the context just to try and make the UK look bad or justify your error/lie.”

What this really looks like is just that you are a complete ignorant about British Affairs, IMF, etc. That’s all...

SYL or may be not...
45 inthegutter (#) Dec 07th, 2013 - 09:56 pm Report abuse
I'm well aware of what the CBI is but was unfamiliar with this one politician cum “business leader”.

And yet there is absolutely no reason why I should believe his figures over those used by the IMF considering the UK figures for the IMF come from the ONS. But again, you quoted two different sources (to make the decline look real), with probable different methodologies.

Why are you so interested in the UKs apparent decline Dany? Justified why Argentina should get the Falklands yet?

Face it, Argentina will never get the Falklands.

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