Wednesday, March 19th 2014 - 07:30 UTC

A Vazquez victory forecasted in Uruguay but with 'orthodox economics' threatened

The Economist Intelligence Unit anticipates a 2015 scenario in which Tabaré Vazquez from the ruling coalition will most probably be president, but in a situation quite different from that of his first mandate (2005/2010) if he insists in implementing orthodox economics.

The former president will face the greatest challenges from inside the coalition

 This will cause divisions in the left leaning ruling coalition which will make the implementation of policies, 'complicated', says EIU.

Vazquez will need the support from the most radical elements and strong backing from his party to ensure a comfortable victory in the primaries which should reduce the threats to governance beyond the October presidential and legislative elections.

In this context, the EIU speculates that “a scenario potentially beneficial for Vazquez could imply the election of Senator Constanza Moreira as his running ticket mate”.

But this would not make things easy further on, if Vazquez pretends to continue with the orthodox approach in economy policy, which characterized his first mandate, since this could face strong opposition from a very left leaning vice-president.

In such a scenario divisions within the ruling coalition would persist during his five year mandate, which further complicates the drafting of policy, says EIU.

In the two governments of the ruling Broad Front, the management of economic affairs was in the hands of the Liber Seregni Front, FLS, and the moderate wing of the Socialists, with economists Danilo Astori, Fernando Lorenzo, Mario Bergara and Alvaro García.

Anyhow during the current mandate of president Mujica the now former Economy minister Fernando Lorenzo was challenged by the Planning and Budget Office, (next to the president) which had a different focus with other proposals.

According to the EIU the main challenges faced by Vazquez are from inside the coalition and the standing divisions between the moderates and the most radicals in the extreme left.

If “Vazquez wins the primary and can take advantage of the support both from the faithful voters of the coalition as well as from the independents, it can be expected he should enjoy a comfortable victory”.

Finally according to the latest public opinion polls, which have been showing a consistent tendency, Vazquez leads comfortable and is expected to face Pedro Bordaberry from the Colorado party and Jorge Larrañaga from the National party.

However since Larrañaga was defeated in two consecutive presidential elections, his chances of victory are limited.

Likewise Bordaberry and his party most probably are too far to the right to close the vote gap from an electorate that in the last decade has moved to the left, and with an economy that has not ceased to grow since 2003.

5 comments Feed

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1 ynsere (#) Mar 19th, 2014 - 04:09 pm Report abuse
The Communists, a minority, will displace the useful idiots in the Frente Amplio.
2 Stevie (#) Mar 19th, 2014 - 04:53 pm Report abuse
The PC will most probably get a good vote, but Moreira is from MPP, I'm not sure I understand your comment.

As far as I know, both PC and MPP are represented in the FA...
3 ChrisR (#) Mar 19th, 2014 - 09:06 pm Report abuse
“Free energy” Stevie

It looks like Vasquez will be hamstrung to get the finances back on an even keel.

Given the irresponsible actions of “No Money Pepe” with spending the next two generations money for them I would imagine you are thrilled to bits.

That is, if you even understand the implications of what the twat has done.

I bet you will encourage your kids to “come back” to Uruguay. Do you think they are as stupid as you? I bet their mother will set them straight as to how crap life is for a working Uruguayo: better to be on the “Golden Pepe gravy train” known as the social programme, eh?

I bet you are getting your postal vote ready? Can’t let the commie bastards down by not voting for them!
4 Stevie (#) Mar 19th, 2014 - 09:11 pm Report abuse
You'll love to hate Moreira, expat, although she's no “commie”.
The PC is another force entirely :)
5 ChrisR (#) Mar 20th, 2014 - 11:02 am Report abuse
@ 4 “Free energy” Stevie

As a taxpayer in Uruguay I am used to the stupid government bastards wasting my money so it will be as I posted in 3).

I take it the PC are affectionately known as Pratts and Cunts then? We have had a few of them in the UK you freeloader, so it won't be anything new.

I read that Norway and Sweden are considering merging, perhaps it's to keep the likes of you out.

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