A Vazquez victory forecasted in Uruguay but with 'orthodox economics' threatened
The Economist Intelligence Unit anticipates a 2015 scenario in which Tabaré Vazquez from the ruling coalition will most probably be president, but in a situation quite different from that of his first mandate (2005/2010) if he insists in implementing orthodox economics.
This will cause divisions in the left leaning ruling coalition which will make the implementation of policies, 'complicated', says EIU.
Vazquez will need the support from the most radical elements and strong backing from his party to ensure a comfortable victory in the primaries which should reduce the threats to governance beyond the October presidential and legislative elections.
In this context, the EIU speculates that a scenario potentially beneficial for Vazquez could imply the election of Senator Constanza Moreira as his running ticket mate.
But this would not make things easy further on, if Vazquez pretends to continue with the orthodox approach in economy policy, which characterized his first mandate, since this could face strong opposition from a very left leaning vice-president.
In such a scenario divisions within the ruling coalition would persist during his five year mandate, which further complicates the drafting of policy, says EIU.
In the two governments of the ruling Broad Front, the management of economic affairs was in the hands of the Liber Seregni Front, FLS, and the moderate wing of the Socialists, with economists Danilo Astori, Fernando Lorenzo, Mario Bergara and Alvaro García.
Anyhow during the current mandate of president Mujica the now former Economy minister Fernando Lorenzo was challenged by the Planning and Budget Office, (next to the president) which had a different focus with other proposals.
According to the EIU the main challenges faced by Vazquez are from inside the coalition and the standing divisions between the moderates and the most radicals in the extreme left.
If Vazquez wins the primary and can take advantage of the support both from the faithful voters of the coalition as well as from the independents, it can be expected he should enjoy a comfortable victory.
Finally according to the latest public opinion polls, which have been showing a consistent tendency, Vazquez leads comfortable and is expected to face Pedro Bordaberry from the Colorado party and Jorge Larrañaga from the National party.
However since Larrañaga was defeated in two consecutive presidential elections, his chances of victory are limited.
Likewise Bordaberry and his party most probably are too far to the right to close the vote gap from an electorate that in the last decade has moved to the left, and with an economy that has not ceased to grow since 2003.