MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Ascending Marina Silva ties with Dilma and polarizes the 5 October election
Silva has surged to 34% support from 21% in a previous Datafolha poll conducted before she launched her candidacy 
Support for centrist candidate and market favorite Aecio Neves has dropped to 15% from 20% in the previous poll on Aug. 18. Presidential candidate Marina Silva has widened her lead over President Dilma Rousseff to 10 percentage points in what could be a likely runoff in Brazil's October election, a survey by polling firm Datafolha showed on Friday.
It was the third poll in less than a week that projected the Oct. 5 election would go to a second-round vote in which Rousseff would be unseated by Silva, who entered the race just 10 days ago following the death of her party's candidate.
The popular anti-establishment figure is threatening to end the 12-year rule of the Workers' Party in a hotly contested vote that is being watched closely by investors hoping that a change of government will issue in more market-friendly policies.
Silva has surged to 34% support from 21% in a previous Datafolha poll conducted before she launched her candidacy. She is now tied with Rousseff whose support has fallen to 34% from 36% in a first-round vote.
If the race goes to a runoff on Oct. 26 as expected, Silva would win 50% of the votes, while Rousseff would get 40% widening her margin of victory from six to 10 percentage points, according to Datafolha.
Support for centrist candidate and market favorite Aecio Neves has dropped to 15% from 20% in the previous poll on Aug. 18.
Silva appeals to voters disenchanted with Brazil's political establishment who see her as a principled outsider who can govern ethically. Polls showed her drawing disenfranchised and uncommitted voters, and stealing support from Neves.
The poll of 2,844 eligible voters was conducted Aug. 28-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The results were broadcast on TV Globo and posted on the website of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper.
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Read all commentsThe problem with this article is that Marina Silva is not perceived here as an anti-establishment figure.
Sep 01st, 2014 - 08:52 pm 0Her work with Chico Mendes to preserve the Amazonas for something other than expensive wood paneling in bathrooms and bedrooms of the rich and famous is commendable here.
What is correct is her draw to the increasing number of disenfranchised voters, which we saw much of before and during the Copa. President Dilma and her administration has not bridged that gap, and has no traction with that voter group. They aren't listening.
Many here voted for Marina Silva before in the previous election, primarily for her work as Minister of the Environment, and the fact that she broke away from the PT. This by no means was limited to just the youth vote. It was common knowledge then that she and then Chief or Staff Dilma did not agree on policy matters, which today is amplified even further.
The Neves bloc is now seen as the spoiler vote, and is actively being courted by both the PT and PSDB. If Marina Silva and her team can bridge the market-friendly concerns of business, and ignore whatever “ night dirt ” is thrown up against her at the last minute, it will be a very interesting election.
Hers to lose, so to speak.
Pick your poison Brazil
Sep 01st, 2014 - 09:44 pm 0Interesting...
Sep 02nd, 2014 - 01:16 pm 0Marina is splitting the Neves vote - the 'right wing' vote.
Marina should be splitting the Dilma vote - she is 'Left', ex-PT.
My guess is that she already split the Left at the last Presidential election.
Never seen a genuine politician split Left and Right so efficiently. The UKIP man has done it in England - but could we really call him a genuine politician?
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