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Montevideo, October 18th 2017 - 18:11 UTC

Markets (and investors) in Argentina waiting for Sunday primary results

Tuesday, August 8th 2017 - 15:41 UTC
Full article 10 comments

The technical tie for the Senate seat in the province of Buenos Aires is being closely followed by the business community and potential investors in Argentina, fearing that a victory by ex president Cristina Fernandez over the candidate sponsored by president Mauricio Macri, could be interpreted as a longing for the hand-out and subsidies policies of Kirchnerism and rejection of the current economic reforms which have yet to deliver enough jobs and stable prices. Read full article

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  • Enrique Massot

    Really! A tie!

    Says who?

    We just don't know.

    “...working on the assumptions of the reliable Argentine pollsters...”

    This story looks so much like those perpetrated by Clarin, which doesn't give a hoot about journalism or ethics. “Trusted sources...somebody very well placed...would...could...” and the like are daily givings from the Argentina's most read newspaper. Interviewing the other side? That's for the faint of heart!

    So, again. Where's the name of those “reliable pollsters?” Nowhere to be seen.

    But look at the picture of Heidi and Esteban Bullrich. The governor sports her standard “angelical” smile. But Bullrich's face do tell the tale.

    Aug 08th, 2017 - 07:37 pm - Link - Report abuse -3
  • Zaphod Beeblebrox

    Are you worried that it is so close? Whatever happens it doesn't look like a dramatic U-turn in your hero's political fortunes. A narrow victory in her chosen seat wouldn't be the most ringing of endorsements.

    Aug 08th, 2017 - 10:09 pm - Link - Report abuse +2
  • Enrique Massot

    I am not going to discuss opinion polls. I questioned the story above for not telling who the pollsters were.

    In any event, we'll have an interesting outlook in five days, when the PASO election to elect candidates is held.

    Meanwhile, a Bloomberg story starts as follows: “The shine is starting to come off President Mauricio Macri’s Argentina.”

    “The country’s overseas bonds are among the worst performers in emerging markets over the past three weeks, the peso keeps hitting record lows and that foreign-exchange volatility led one of its biggest energy companies to scrap a debt sale.”

    That's Macrism at work.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/argentina-losing-luster-as-debt-glut-weighs-with-election-risks

    Aug 09th, 2017 - 05:47 am - Link - Report abuse -2
  • Sinibaldi

    In the part of a melody...

    Near a small
    oak a fine bird
    is singing and
    this melody,
    with a little
    desire, arrives
    in the darkness
    to cover a feeling...

    Francesco Sinibaldi

    Aug 09th, 2017 - 03:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Zaphod Beeblebrox

    Reeko,

    “I am not going to discuss opinion polls.”

    OK.

    “I questioned the story above for not telling who the pollsters were.”

    No, and I agree that is a bit sloppy, but they mention the pollsters in a previous story http://en.mercopress.com/2017/08/04/cristina-fernandez-could-become-senator-but-overall-macri-will-have-a-stronger-block-in-congress so it is either the same pollsters again or different pollsters providing results that are not massively different. It seems to be pretty much the same story (“there's going to be an election and we don't know who will win”), but you still don't like it, because you are denying the real possibility of CFK losing.

    “In any event, we'll have an interesting outlook in five days, when the PASO election to elect candidates is held.”

    What will you do if CFK loses?

    “Meanwhile, a Bloomberg story starts as follows: “The shine is starting to come off President Mauricio Macri’s Argentina.””

    Bonds are just one aspect of a country's performance. My company is investing in Argentina and the rest of LATAM because the growth rates are very high but they recognise that “long term” in LATAM = 6 months because of all of the crazy politics and plan accordingly. It will take time for Macri to rebuild trust and CFK's potential re-election is causing some nervousness because investors don't want to go back to that. If CFK loses I'd expect a surge in investment.

    “That's Macrism at work.”

    While defaulting on bond payments was Kirchnerism at work. What would you prefer, a small return on your investment or losing it all?

    Aug 09th, 2017 - 06:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Marti Llazo

    Here is a little help from reekie's friends, to better understand the situation that CFK left for us:

    ”Upon taking office in December 2015, Mauricio Macri's administration found the economy in complete disarray. Real GDP had been virtually stagnant for four consecutive years, the primary (excluding interest payments) fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP, the multilateral real exchange rate (RER) was 30% below the 1997-2005 average, meaning that the Argentine peso was significantly overvalued.“

    ”...Peso.... significantly overvalued......” I wonder if reekie understands the significance of that? Not likely. And what happens to overvalued currencies eventually? (Hint: it rhymes with devaluation).

    Tune in again tomorrow as we explain Life in Argentina to the Distant Reekies.

    Aug 10th, 2017 - 03:22 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • gordo1

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4774354/You-air-force-Argentina-grounds-fighters.html

    Aug 10th, 2017 - 06:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Marti Llazo

    Gordito, allowing Argenzuela to have fast airplanes is like providing monkeys with facones.

    Véase https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7167/6620380013_fbfcdecbcc_b.jpg

    Aug 10th, 2017 - 02:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Enrique Massot

    From the same Barron's article, based on S&P analysis, selectively cited by Marti above:

    “The Macri administration eliminated exchange controls, let the peso float, reduced export taxes, and increased regulated prices, all of which caused inflation to accelerate to 43.5% in 2016 from 25% in the previous year...”

    “...the Central Bank of Argentina launched a disinflation plan...S&P Global Ratings economists believe that this year's inflation target is not attainable...”

    So which is what, Marti?

    http://www.barrons.com/articles/argentina-central-bank-cant-get-no-satisfaction-1500396216

    Aug 11th, 2017 - 05:08 pm - Link - Report abuse -1
  • Marti Llazo

    Wrong years, reekie. We are in 2017 now. The trend was from 40 percent in 2016 to about 25 percent for 2017.

    Since the CFK INDEC was never exactly honest, we certainly don't trust her government's claims about low inflation.

    Aug 12th, 2017 - 02:44 am - Link - Report abuse +2

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