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Montevideo, April 21st 2018 - 17:23 UTC

Brazilian electorate cautious, a week after the imprisonment of Lula da Silva

Monday, April 16th 2018 - 09:05 UTC
Full article 21 comments

Brazilian voters are abandoning jailed former President Lula da Silva as his chances of running in October fade, but they are not transferring their support en masse to other leftist candidates, a Datafolha poll showed on Sunday. Without Lula in the running, support for far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro has slipped and is now virtually tied with environmentalist Marina Silva in a presidential race thrown wide open, the survey said. Read full article

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  • golfcronie

    Was the poll conducted in the Favelas?

    Posted 5 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @ALL:

    So which crook will be [or should be; according to you] the next corrupt president?

    Posted 5 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    I see Temer is planning to break his promise not to run again. Dishonesty from the President, what a shock.

    It will be interesting to see who the PT pick as a substitute candidate, assuming Lula is banned due to the lei da ficha limpa.

    @ :o))
    Marcelo Odebrecht; cut out the middle man.

    Posted 4 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    According to an IPSOS poll (taken 7th April), 46% are against Lula's imprisonment, while 50% are favourable ; 57% believe he's guitly as charged, only 32% believe in his innocence (reflects his 'petista' following) ; 50% think his imprisonment is justified, 44% don't.

    According to Datafolha, in another poll, where the various names of candidates are mentioned, Lula obtained 30%, but in different poll, where the names were left out,
    just asking the people who they'd vote for, Lula dropped to 13%.....the 13% seems to be a far more realistic, given the current situation (Lula ineligible, Lei da Ficha Limpa).

    Posted 4 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    According to that at least 7% of people believe Lula is guilty, but don't think he deserves to be in jail, which is kind of crazy.

    Perhaps without the names being in the poll, people assumed Lula would not be able to stand so they picked someone else. It's kind of odd they aren't switching to other leftist candidates, but a lot of Lula's following seems more about him than his party.

    Posted 4 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @DT:

    REF: “Marcelo Odebrecht; cut out the middleman”:

    TRUE!
    A perfect choice; competing with an equally qualified & an equally strong candidate: the BRF Chairman Abilio Diniz [amonst the other NOTABLES like Eduardo Cunha, Sergio Cabral, Lula, etc if Temer doesn't WANT to be the next president]. REF:
    https://jornaloexpresso.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/charge.jpg

    Posted 4 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    Such contradictions are to be expected when dealing with morons.

    “Perhaps without the names being in the poll, people assumed Lula would not be able to stand so they picked someone else.”
    Don't think so...Lula is still officially a candidate (at least until the registration deadline - in August - when the TSE will be obliged to accept it, OR, declare him ineligible, as per the “Ficha Limpa”), and because in that poll, NO names were mentioned, putting all unmentioned candidates on equal footing.

    Lula's worn out image is becoming clearer by the day. To me, the weak turn outs at Lula's recent political rallys up in the NE and down in the south of Brazil, are an indication that the truth is finally sinking in. The supporters that followed him everywhere, were the same 40 or 50 busloads of flagwaving idiots who got free sandwiches and R$ 30 per day.

    When the PT's money runs out, I'd like to see who is going to finance the MST, MTST....perhaps the leftist unions, but their main source of income (obligatory worker contribution) has been dealt a heavy blow (with the labour reform).

    I hope I'm right, but it seems that people are starting to realize that neither extreme is a good option.

    Posted 4 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    I don't know, I'm afraid you're seeing what you want to see. Seems clear Lula has lost support, but he's still by far the most popular. I think people are especially put off the centrist candidates because of the corruption - they have been influential and thus deeply involved, and without having a clear ideology, it might more likely be assumed that they are in politics for personal power and wealth.

    There is also the aspect that when things are going well, people stick with the status quo. When things are going badly, they want a change. Voting for extremists seems to be popular around the world right now, and things in Brazil are not exactly going swimmingly.

    Posted 3 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @JB:

    REF: “When the PT's money runs out”:

    Do you mean: “IF” the PT's money runs out? During the 15 or so years; the amassed wealth could well be in terms of BILLIONS and NOT = just the Triplex-Value of a few million; which the Other Crooks are harping about.

    REF: The NEXT President: How can we forget/forgive?
    https://i2.wp.com/www.humorpolitico.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Aecio-Tranquilo.jpg?w=606&ssl=1

    Posted 3 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    Perhaps, but not really. The polls speak for themselves....he has dropped about 15% in the polls where the candidates names are mentioned....and by 60% in the 'spontaneous' poll.....this isn't just something in my imagination.

    ALL candidates - centre AND left - are up to their necks in corruption, and people are waking up to this. I think it's possible that perhaps the guy who's going to take it, hasn't even appeared yet. Those who've announced their candidacy are the same old shit, all over again. Don't know which is worse, the radicals or those in politics for personal power and wealth. But since both, in the end, want power , and weallth, I'll stick to the latter.

    Agree that people usually feel more comfortable with the status quo, with what they are used to, but to forget who caused the most serious recession in decades, they've got to be the stupidest people on Earth.

    @:o))
    You're right....the PT must have billions stashed away....just need to find it....that would mean extinction for the PT....and several other parties.

    Posted 2 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @JB:

    REF: “PT must have billions stashed away”

    Just imagine the value of the TOTAL of ALL the stashed billions by ALL the political parties Plus their Associates [Politicians+Entrepreneurs+Bureaucrats+Others] for YEARS! That should run into Trillions [no exaggeration]!
    And FINALLY;
    Reuters poll: The OPTIMISM BEGINS:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-latam-economy-poll/optimism-begins-to-fade-over-brazil-growth-prospects-reuters-poll-idUSKBN1HP1A5

    Posted 2 days ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @JB
    I wonder if that is because people think Lula's guilty, or they just believe they won't be able to vote for him?

    The people who are planning to stand do seem mostly predictable, and the charges against Neves suggest that the corruption would have continued unhindered no matter who won the last election. Will this one be the same?

    I saw that a former STF judge, Joaquim Barbosa, has suggested standing. What do you think of him? Honest or not? And would he be any good as President?

    RE the recession, if it was Dilma standing for election again I think she'd certainly lose. And if she was still in power then people would be forced to blame the PT for the recession, but by taking power the PMDB and other parties have made it possible for people to blame them for the worsening situation instead, and AFAIK there isn't much of a practical recovery yet to compensate. Besides, Lula is so much more popular than his party, if he stands then who knows what could happen.

    Posted 1 day ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @DT
    Might be a combination of both, but whichever it is, it's taking its toll.

    Not wanting to be pessimistic, but unless there is a significant renewal in Congress, doubt the mentality will change, much. On the other hand, I'm optimistic, in that the example of politicians being removed from office (after immunity ends) should send them a message, which could sink into their heads.

    Barbosa, based on his personal history, and his insistent crusade against corruption in the 'mensalão' makes him a reasonably good candidate...but will the millions of ignoramuses see it that way ?

    Dilma hasn't the slightest chance....and don't believe anyone thinks the cause of the recession was any other but the PT, but they have short memories, and probably never realized the extent to which corruption was imbedded in the Federal government, or how much was stolen - which 'could' make a difference to their lives if invested correctly.

    The PMDB, entering government in 2010 (Temer as VP) made sure they got their cut, so despite the efforts in the right direction (reforms), their past is coming back to haunt them. The PT crisis exploded end 2014/beginning 2015, but had been in the making for at least 3 years, being covered up lies and incorrect stats. Only reason Lula carries on saying he's a candidate, is because he wants to keep the torch lit, to be able to pass it on when the TSE declares him ineligible (sometime September).

    Posted 1 day ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    Jack Bauer aka Proof-less and Truth-less
    “You're right....the PT must have billions stashed away....just need to find it..” The usual reactionary logic, if we can’t find any evidence, then they must be guilty. Give your head shake, what an utter perversion, and illogic nonsense.

    Posted 1 day ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @JB:

    REF: ”Only reason .....................(sometime September)”:

    The ONLY reason Lulla wants to be a candidate [or a president?];
    - is to save his rear end
    - because he is confident that the ignorant masses will still support him [many can't even estimate the size of the illicit dough PT amassed during nearly 20 years]
    - to correct the past mistakes by becoming a more sophisticated crook; so that the future investigations [if he can't ban them] will never be able to pinpoint him.

    Posted 1 day ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DemonTree

    @JB
    I'm sure the voters will want to get rid of the same old (corrupt) faces, but is there any other option? I should think there's some risk that a bunch of unknowns are elected, leaving no one who really knows what they are doing.

    There's an article about Barbosa today; it says he hasn't decided yet but would be standing for the Brazilian Socialist party, which may affect your opinion. Or is it one of those socialist parties that aren't really socialist?

    I'm sure you're right about why Lula is still saying he's a candidate. He was able to transfer his popularity to Dilma, but would it work a second time? And I wonder if the PMDB will suffer more than the other big parties in the election because of Temer's unpopularity. Didn't they change their name recently (to get rid of bad associations)?

    Posted 23 hours ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • :o))

    @DT:

    REF: “I'm sure............................there any other option?”:

    - The old farts will be replaced by the new, younger, better trained [in corruption] and more sophisticated crooks than their earlier generations.

    - Joaquim Barbosa: Bloomberg-Politics calls him an Anti-Corruption Crusader but he may change his “spots” upon changing the role - after learning “How To”.

    - SOME undesirables will automatically be elected due to the absence of better choices, but mainly due to a large number ignorant, mesmerized and careless voters. REF:
    https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5EuUmvEmI1w/Vv2n1Zosy0I/AAAAAAAABw8/EHkCboM9HPgdKYkL9BBpRi8mnb13yR8OQ/s400/voto_consciente.jpg

    Posted 22 hours ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @Terence Lula Liar Hill
    get off your chicken perch and prove they don't ...

    @DT
    Can't trust the Brazilian voter...generally not too bright. And the options probably aren't any better.

    Regarding Barbosa, 'a' socialist party or 'the' Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) ?
    Considering that today most parties like to call themselves 'socialists', without it's members really knowing what socialism is, will have to wait until he starts campaigning, to see what his plans are...

    The problem with Lula trying to transfer his popularity to a last-minute candidate, is exactly the 'last -minute' , which wouldn't give them much time to campaign with that candidate, besides the fact that today there is no super-popular 'petista'....Just to remeber, in the 2016 elections (for mayor), the PT lost in 60% of the counties they controlled (until then). Seems they paid a high price for Lula's antics (already charged in 6 or 7 Federal cases). They probably got their traditional votes from the 'hardcore' petistas, but wasn't enough.

    The PMDB (and several other parties) changed their name(s) around the end of last year (after the wear and tear Congress suffered due to their internal politics, resulting in the incapacity to push the social security reform through, and) in an attempt to disassociate themselves from public perception that most were corrupt... While the parties may have managed to confuse most people (as to who they were and are now), the politicians might find that a bit harder.

    Posted 21 hours ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    Jack Bauer aka Proof-less and Truth-less
    “prove they don't …” Not my burden its yours as you’re the one who made the assertion.
    “…the PT must have billions stashed away....just need to find it..”
    Fallacious shifting of the burden of proof occurs if someone makes a claim that needs justification, then demands that the opponent justify the opposite of the claim. The opponent has no such burden until evidence is presented for the claim.
    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof

    Posted 19 hours ago - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Enrique Massot

    Jack can barely contain his joy, hoping that finally Lula is out for good.

    “Lula's worn out image is becoming clearer...the truth is finally sinking in,” he writes.

    Meanwhile, Skull keeps repeating his mantra ad nauseum: “they all are crooks,” a line seeking to discourage people's participation (Don't bother--Just stay home on Oct. 7).

    Beyond interested speculations, Lula's statement on April 7 reflects his stoic acceptance of whatever fate may reserve him, as well as his faith in the eventual triumph of good over darkness:

    “Os poderosos podem matar uma, duas ou três rosas, mas jamais podem deter a chegada da Primavera.” (The powerful may kill one, two, three roses, but they can never stop the arrival of Spring).“

    Further, the following statement shows how high Lula's ideas fly, well above the mezquine machinations of those ready to kill and imprison to protect their privileges:

    ”Eu não sou mais um ser humano, eu sou uma ideia.” (I'm no longer a human being--I am an idea).

    Too much of a name to be on the ballots.

    Posted 17 hours ago - Link - Report abuse +1
  • :o))

    WHY blame the crooks when the population itself is the MAIN culprit?
    http://www.chargeonline.com.br/php/DODIA//paixao.jpg

    Posted 5 hours ago - Link - Report abuse 0

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