MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Argentina’s 12-month inflation expectations remain steady above 30%, says UTDT
Expectations are even higher among low income groups and the interior of Argentina, says Guido Sandleris Argentina's 12-month inflation expectations held steady for a third straight month at over 30% in May, according to the median estimate in a survey published by the Torcuato Di Tella University.
The average response eased to 33.9%, from 37.1% in April, the university, known as UTDT, said Monday in its closely watched monthly report.
“Inflation expectations seem to have stabilized at 30%. According to the average opinion polls’ reply, after a whole year of stability, inflation expectations increased in March five percentage points and reached 30%. Both in April and May expectations remained at that value”, said Guido Sandleris head of the Finance Investigations Department from UTDT.
The economist added that comparing the medium replies among regions, and as happened is the last two surveys expected inflation in the capital Buenos Aires is less than in metropolitan Buenos Aires and the rest of the country. Likewise, “the inflation expected by the lower income groups is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of groups with higher income”.
The gap between median inflation expectations and the level of inflation the Argentine government is expected to report stood at 18.2% in the survey, the university said.
“The significant difference between these two measures illustrates the scant credibility of official figures,” the university said. Argentina's national statistics agency Indec, said that annual inflation as measured by its consumer price index was 9.8% at the end of April.
The credibility of Indec's CPI has been called into question ever since long-serving professional staff at the agency was replaced with political appointees in early 2007 by then president Nestor Kirchner.
The administration of President Cristina Kirchner regularly and strongly denies charges that it manipulates Indec's economic data.
But most private sector economists said annual inflation is running between 20% and 25% as the central bank increases the money supply to finance the government and prop the economy. The central bank's M2 measure of money supply rose 28% on the year in April, just above its full-year target of a 26.4% increase.
UTDT report was based on a nationwide survey of 1.197 people by consultancy Poliarquia Consultores during the first half of May.
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Read all commentsThe administration of President Cristina Kirchner regularly and strongly denies charges that it manipulates Indec's economic data.
May 22nd, 2012 - 04:53 am 0HAHAHAHAHAHA
KFC even joked at how crap the Indec figures were in her speech to the poor Angolians!
Cristina explicó que, durante el virreinato, en Buenos Aires y Montevideo “el 50 por ciento de la población eran negros”. Agregó que “eran los que iban al frente en todas las contiendas”. Enseguida, deslizó: “Y no era un censo del Indec, no van a entender el chiste pero después se los explicamos”.
Important point - these are the expectations of people being surveyed, not hard figures. While such expectations are a very significant component of the human factor in inflation, the people surveyed may find that the economy itself disagrees with them. The most worrying part of the whole article is the above-target increase in the money supply - the one and only way to have true hyperinflation (a la Zimbabwe) is an out of control money supply.
May 22nd, 2012 - 06:17 am 0Presumably they are allowed to publish this because it's a survey of expectations and not inflations figures as such. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of harassment by the govt.
#1 What a lady, gotta love that wicked sense of humour =) Though she could just be joking at the perception of people like you...
May 22nd, 2012 - 11:42 am 0Commenting for this story is now closed.
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