Mercosur economic performance expected to lag behind Andean countries in 2012
Argentina and Brazil will experience an economic slowdown this year compared to 2011, while Paraguay, punished by drought and an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, will have the worst performance in Latin America, and Peru the best, according to the Argentine consultants Ecolatina
Brazil had an average growth of 6% from 2001 to 2011 with inflation in the range of 6.6% and Argentina expanded at 8% in the decade but inflation soared to an average 16.7% beginning in 2007, said the consultant which was founded by former Economy minister Roberto Lavagna. However the other members of Mercosur, Venezuela and Uruguay are expected to expand 4% in 2012.
Brazil and Argentina are the two largest economies of South America.
“It can be said that the slowdown of the world economy will be relatively limited in Chile as in the countries belonging to the Community of Andean Nations (Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Bolivia) (CAN)” said Ecolatina.
More specifically on Chile the report says that in 2012 the economy showed signs of decelerating after growing 6% last year. “In effect, the latest Chilean central bank poll on economic expectations indicates a growth forecast of 5% this year”.
For Ecolatina the annual balance “will be favourable for the members of CAN since it is estimated the economy will expand at least 4%, and in that group Peru outstands, because according to the country’s central bank expectations poll, GDP is expected to advance 6% this year”.
“The excellent performance of the Peruvian economy is not a temporary phenomenon since during the last decade the country expanded at Chinese rates with low inflation, as happened in Argentina from mid 2002 to 2006”, adds the report.
President Ollanta Humala has continued with the policies started by Alberto Fujimori, Alejandro Toledo and Alan García to open the Peruvian economy and welcome foreign investments.
It also pointed out that the exit of Venezuela from CAN and its inclusion in Mercosur imply “an important readjustment in the region with consequences for trade relations in the future”.
Ecolatina looking ahead proposed “assessing the viability of the diminished CAN” and speculated that if “the recent creation of the Alliance of the Pacific”, which promotes deep integration of Chile, Mexico, Colombia and Peru advances, and Ecuador and Bolivia opt for Mercosur, “the region could be split into two blocks”.
However the overall result for South America in the first decade of this century has been clearly positive: the region’s GDP overall expanded at an average rate of 6.6%, underlined Ecolatina.
“Even when performance has been lower than that of the emerging countries group (8.8% annual), it was higher than the world average of 6.6%. And furthermore and very encouraging with the exception of a couple of specific cases, inflation has ceased to be a problem for South American countries”, concludes the report.
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The growth rates are modifies to present the Mercosur's countries as not too failing econmies..as they really are...
The news is that the members of the Alliance of the Pacific will be the best economic performers this year, the next and the next and so on....while they don´t be threatened by their neighbors from the loosers socialist (or hidden comunist) economies at Mercosur....even Cuba is going back to capitalism after an painful comunist experiment of 50 years, as China and Vietnam.....Just North Korea keeps its deep comunist economic regime killing their people by starvation or imprisonment.
Guzz you live about as far west as you can get without being in the Far East, so WTF is this about Sergio watching too much Western news, what news is he going to watch?
Chile and Peru are firmly on the road to real wealth for all their populations, what the hell would they want to join up with the Mercosur losers for?
It is far more likely that in a not too distant future, when Chávez, Kirchner, Morales and Correa have been turfed out by their electorates, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador will try to get into the Pacific Alliance!!!!!
The ignorance of some people about South American politics (Peruvian in particular) is just appalling……..
Perú’s declared intention is the integration on the CAN Nations and the MercoSur Nations into UNASUR............
2009:
”Por otro lado, considerando que el Perú asumió la Presidencia Pro Témpore de la Comunidad Andina (CAN) en julio de 2009, se ha fijado como objetivo prioritario el compromiso peruano para lograr la aprobación de la decisión sobre la Participación de los Estados parte del MERCOSUR en los órganos, mecanismos y medidas de la CAN, en su condición de países miembros asociados. Ello permitiría mayores avances en la convergencia de ambos procesos de integración hacia la UNASUR.
Para el Perú, la integración regional en América Latina continuará siendo un tema prioritario de política exterior, puesto que constituye uno de los principales mecanismos para generar desarrollo económico y social. Así, resulta imprescindible seguir contribuyendo con los importantes avances que muestran los procesos latinoamericanos de integración, en general, y MERCOSUR, en particular.”
www.rree.gob.pe/portal/enlaces.nsf/3f08cf720c1dbf4805256de20052913d/53a75ebd63425a71052576a80053d311?OpenDocument
2012:
”Entre “los principales propósitos” de Perú cuando asuma la Presidencia Pro Tempore de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) estará “la promoción de una adecuada convergencia” con el Mercosur y la Comunidad Andina (CAN) para fortalecer el proceso de integración regional.
“Para ello se buscaría elaborar una agenda práctica con temas en los que ya existan avances o coincidencias entre la CAN y el MercoSur, tales como la construcción de una ciudadanía suramericana y el desarrollo de normas en temas como transportes, interconexión energética, seguridad social, entre otros”.
elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1434285/noticia-peru-fortalecera-vinculos-mercosur-durante-cumbre-mendoza
Educate yourselves…………., turnips………….
You can't see it, Because you're an idiot and no clue as usual what you're talking about.
Peru has already made it clear that it's interested in joining mercosul/mercosur
Chile, same.
Chile is so developed in your head that it has deficits in manufacturing products and highly dependent on “copper” and has the worse educational system in Latin America. So developed it is. Same for Peru. Both have a long way to go and. By the way, if the free trade agreements were so great, the US would not be in this situation. It's not free trade for us, it's free trade for the corporations.
Chile will not be joining MercoSur. There is no political or public support for the idea. Chile has spent years forging bilateral trade agreements with most trading blocks and it is implausible that we would abandon this successful strategy.
Chile is not a developed country. You are right about our dependency on copper but total wrong on education. Chile’s secondary education is lacking but not the worst on the continent. Chile’s universities are the highest performing on the continent according to international assessment. Chile is not going to become a developed nation any time soon, there are subtle but important cultural obstacles.
It is not certain that Peru will join Mercosur. It might have been the aim at one time, but Peru is moving away from Mercosur. That is not to say that won’t change with a change of government, but Humala is not going that way. Peru is more unstable in this respect. It doesn’t enjoy the broad economic consensus that Chile does.
Think,
How’s things down there in Patagonia Argentina?
In your post the words “adecuada convergencia” leave the Peruvian gov’t plenty room for manoeuvre I think.
Aug 09th, 2012 - 01:05 am
Your comment is about up to your usual level, the low performance of Paraguay has nothing to do with its Government, it is due to drought and foot and mouth, the latter is also your problem!!!
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