Wednesday, December 26th 2012 - 06:27 UTC

Argentine economy forecast to expand 4.6% in 2013, but dollar clamp remains

Argentina's economy is seen growing 4.6% next year, improving after drought and a slowdown in top trading partner Brazil took a toll in 2012, the central bank president said in an interview published on Sunday. She also advanced that the so called ‘dollar clamp’ or strict restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency remain.

Central bank president Marco del Pont: “we’re expecting a good 2013”

The expansion in Argentina, Latin America's No. 3 economy, cooled abruptly this year, ending a boom period that started in 2003 when the country began recovering from a crippling crisis and the world's largest-ever sovereign debt default.

“We're expecting a good 2013 with growth in economic activity of 4.6% and investment that will end the year at 24% of GDP” central bank Chief Mercedes Marco del Pont told Argentine newspaper Pagina 12.

In a report released late on Friday, the central bank estimated 2012 growth at about 2%. This confirms private predictions that growth will be below the 3.26% threshold that would trigger roughly 4 billion dollars in payments next year on growth-linked GDP warrants.

The warrants, securities issued as a deal sweetener during the country's 2005 and 2010 debt restructurings, only pay out when annual growth tops a certain threshold. The payment is made in December of the following year.

Argentina's 2013 budget earmarked 7.97 billion in central bank foreign reserves to pay debt next year. But Marco del Pont acknowledged that without payments coming due on the GDP warrants, there will be excess funds.

“There's a surplus foreseen in the budget. What is not paid on the GDP warrants will be able to go towards public investment, as long as this has a neutral monetary impact,” Marco del Pont was quoted as saying.

Argentina has no inflation-targeting regime and a central bank charter reform approved by Congress in March expanded the bank's mandate to include financial stability and “economic development with social justice.”

Marco del Pont rejects orthodox explanations of price rises and defends the strong expansion of money supply by saying it reflects greater demand for Argentine pesos in a growing economy.

She also said “there will be no loosening” of strict currency controls in place since October 2011. Individual savers are only allowed to buy foreign currency now when they travel abroad, which has sent the black-market rate for dollars soaring in a country where people often seek refuge in greenbacks (between 40% and 50% higher).

She said the money that Argentines used to hoard in dollars should be channelled into productive investments. Before the controls were imposed, Marco del Pont said at least 1 billion dollars a month were purchased on the local foreign exchange market.

“Argentina has no shortage of dollars; it has enough dollars needed to make its purchases, pay debt and transfer profits.”

Marco del Pont explained that “having limited the purchase of dollars was a strategic decision made to ensure that the country would not get stuck in the international bottleneck again.”

“The society also understood why these measures were taken. The country has all the dollars the economy needs to continue growing, to pay its debts”, concluded the official.

With regard to new requirements that banks lend the equivalent of 5% of their deposits to companies - a policy first implemented in the second half of 2012 - Marco del Pont said sanctions will be used to force compliance.

“Banks that don't comply with the objective this year will have the difference 100% immobilized in an account at the central bank” and returned over time once the bank lends the full amount, she explained.
 

23 comments Feed

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1 Anglotino (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 08:47 am Report abuse
Macro del Pont totally misses the REASON that people want US dollars.

The government hoarding dollars and forcing banks to lend does nothing to arrest the decline in living standards and wealth that high inflation is inficting upon the general population.

As for 4.6% growth. Believe it when I see it.
2 yankeeboy (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 10:49 am Report abuse
Argentina will be lucky to get out of recession this year.
It looks like it will be another average/poor crop season and Brazil's growth is estimated at 1%! They won't be buying any cars in the near future.
I love that she says there is plenty of U$ except they still need a clamp. Hmm methinks she is a bit of a liar.
Inflation is picking up too. Predicted to be 36% next year yet no mention of a devaluation, I wonder why?
3 ChrisR (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 01:29 pm Report abuse
4.6% growth! HA, HA, HA. Yes, of course dear, keep taking the hallucinatory tablets.

AND, you still have all the USD you need, of course you do!

AG will be very lucky indeed to avoid a real contraction during 2013. They still delude themselves they are in the same league as Brasil, more like N Korea.
4 Optimus_Princeps (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 02:37 pm Report abuse
I think they will struggle to see so much as 2% growth. I'm seeing reductions in the quality and quantity of goods and services, plus inflation. She loves creating difficulties for people that aren't lying backstabbing rats, or cheap criminal garbage.

I give her a year before she's forced out of power. I made this wager with a few friends. Any takers?

And, please let her slip in the bathtub, fall down some stairs, or choke on a peanut. That's too long a wait.
5 slattzzz (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 03:50 pm Report abuse
What a load of shite she'll be telling us they're building an aircraft carrier next and their own rgenweener nuclear defence progamme built and invented in rgenweener more chance of kissing the queens butt. Or maybe proarg and the numpty in canada going home and paying taxes. Bunch of whinging twats
6 Great Britain (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 05:33 pm Report abuse
My favourite thing about the numpty in Canada is that presuming he wants citizenship he will have to make the following oath:

The Oath of Citizenship is today a legally binding oral and written contract intended to ensure that new Canadian citizens promise to obey the laws and customs of their new country, fulfil their duties as citizens, and recognize the authority of the monarch as the personification of the state and various entities and concepts.[8][9] Its current form is as follows:

I swear (or affirm) that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Queen of Canada, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will faithfully observe the laws of Canada and fulfil my duties as a Canadian citizen.”

Or en francais:
“Je jure fidélité et sincère allégeance à Sa Majesté la Reine Elizabeth Deux, Reine du Canada, à ses héritiers et successeurs et je jure d’observer fidèlement les lois du Canada et de remplir loyalement mes obligations de citoyen canadien.”

Either way, if he wants to stay, he is going to have to swear allegiance to the queen, mwhaahaha, through gritted teeth and wearing his finest suit.
7 Optimus_Princeps (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 07:59 pm Report abuse
@6 He would change his views if was sent with 300 pesos taped to his forehead and thrown in the middle of a slum with a bunch of Pro-Cristina scum. Her animals would steal his clothes, the money, kick his teeth in, and light fireworks out of his mouth. On top of that, the police would laugh at him, and probably add to his misery.

I doubt he would support her policies then.
8 Pirat-Hunter (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 09:01 pm Report abuse
Argentina is going to do great even if there is a 1% growth since everyone else in EU and USA are expecting negative growth, thanks to the dollar clamp now the Argentine national banks can micromanage the economy and not worry about the english..CFK is the best president voted into office in the past 40 years. Argentines around the world support CFK 100%... all the english people are invited to mind their own country and also to quit murdering innocent Muslims women and children all over Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria.
9 Conorworld (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 09:49 pm Report abuse
In Ireland, still under an IMF bailout programme, growth is expected to be 2% next year. There is growth in Europe, it's just lacklustre.
10 Anglotino (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 10:02 pm Report abuse
Oh Pirat-Hunter you make it too easy! Should I take glee.... probably not but I am human.

“Argentina is going to do great even if there is a 1% growth ”
Wrong, this is not enough to reduce poverty or increase exports.

“everyone else in EU and USA are expecting negative growth”
Wrong. The US will experience positive growth and so will many (but not all) EU countries.

“thanks to the dollar clamp now the Argentine national banks can micromanage the economy”
How? You do you know anything about economics? No one should micromanage an economy, just macromanage. But the Central Bank can't increase exports or investment, it could lower inflation but won't. And so consumers are spending like there is no tomorrow.

It's called stealing future growth - it will catch up, just like debt in many western countries eventually caught up.

“not worry about the english”
Umm yeah, where was England mentioned in the article?

“CFK is the best president voted into office in the past 40 years”
Well that is really saying something about Argentina's presidents.

“Argentines around the world support CFK 100%”
Generalise much? Why are they all around the world then? Somehow doubtful, she didn't get 100% of the vote after all.

“all the english people are invited to mind their own country”
Ummm the site is in English and not even based in Argentina, so perhaps it isn't aimed at Argentineans but English speakers-especially considering Britain has territory next to Uruguay.

“quit murdering innocent Muslims women and children all over Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria”
Yeah I couldn't find any mention of this in the article so why are you off subject now? Oh deflection.... I geddit! It must be hard to stay on topic regarding Argentina's economy when growth is tanking and inflation is sky rocketing.

Remember now, don't reply!!!! Tsk tsk can't have you talking to homosexuals now.
11 Optimus_Princeps (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 10:32 pm Report abuse
I'm Argentinian and I don't know a single person with a shred of dignity that likes Cristina. Everyone that does is either stupid, lazy, or a criminal. I gather Pirate Butt Hunter fits in neatly with at least two of the three categories.

I'm sure he believes that the post office slicing open your mail looking for something taxable is great, as well as being overcharged for utilities, having difficulties even ordering a book from Amazon.com, and taking two years to get deadbeat losers off your property when they refuse to pay rent. Here's news for you unemployed basement dweller, it's good to earn money, and have control over where it goes.
12 slattzzz (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 11:03 pm Report abuse
@11 that's because he lives in Canada
13 ptolemy (#) Dec 26th, 2012 - 11:32 pm Report abuse
I suppose Cristina has found a new source of investment by forcing ”banks lend the equivalent of 5% of their deposits to companies .” OK, forced investment in your country but,..banks that don't comply will have it taken and put in central bank anyway. I'm sure the government will use these “new investment figures” to put a political spin on how well they are doing.
14 Marcos Alejandro (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 05:06 am Report abuse
2 yankeeboy
Fred www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqBBQ5J9BrA
15 Anglotino (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 10:26 am Report abuse
Hey everyone did you see what Marcos Alejandro posted?

Yankeeboy discussed the article and spoke about the problems as he sees them.

And this is all the reply that Marcos could muster. This is what happens to a person that can't even bring themselves to repeat the lies of the Argentine government any longer.

I guess we should feel sorry for him. Rendered mute by an inability to lie any longer.
16 yankeeboy (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 12:21 pm Report abuse
Marcos is a Think persona he uses it when he thinks he is being clever.

Doesn't change the STAGFLATION though
and I am happy about that
17 EVOKILLER (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 01:56 pm Report abuse
Dollar clamp will bring AG to another North Korea!
18 Captain Poppy (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 02:00 pm Report abuse
Marcos are those babies argentine?
19 yankeeboy (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 03:08 pm Report abuse
This BCRA lady is just as stupid as the last one, she is currently on trial for having A BAG OF MONEY IN HER OFFICE BATHROOM
her defense:
It is a friends
It is my brothers
A friend is lending it to my brother
It was for a down payment on a house I am buying
I forgot it was there

Where the Rg find these corrupt inept people to run their country is beyond me.
20 slattzzz (#) Dec 27th, 2012 - 07:56 pm Report abuse
The only thing that will increase 4.6% is maximos waistline and TMBOAs bank balance
21 British_Kirchnerist (#) Dec 31st, 2012 - 02:14 pm Report abuse
Good news, on both counts =)
22 Captain Poppy (#) Dec 31st, 2012 - 03:18 pm Report abuse
and 35% inflation WOW! Holy catshit Batman........it's piling high here
23 British_Kirchnerist (#) Dec 31st, 2012 - 06:56 pm Report abuse
#21 I meant the title of course, not the scurrilous post above mine =)

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