Monday, January 21st 2013 - 11:28 UTC

Argentina’s wheat crop down to 10 million tons; 2011/12 planted area 25% less

Argentina will produce 10.1 million tons of wheat this season, the agricultural ministry said, citing extreme weather as the reason for cutting back its previous estimate of 10.5 million tons. With almost all of the harvest already collected, Argentina is looking at a thin wheat harvest, compared with the 14.1 million tons collected in the 2011/12 crop year.

Unusually hard early-season rains made this season's wheat vulnerable to water-born fungi that attacks plants' protein content. Floods posed other logistical problems as harvesting machines sank in the mud and access roads were washed out.

“Yields in the main wheat region of the country did not reach what was estimated at the beginning of the season due to crop health problems, excess water in August, several heat shocks in November and bouts of hail and strong winds during the harvest,” the ministry said in its monthly report.

The season started at a disadvantage when many farmers shifted to soy and other crops to skirt the export curbs that the government places on wheat. Growers planted 3.5 million hectares with wheat, down 25% from the 2011/12 crop year.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange issued its weekly crop report saying it expects Argentina's 2012/13 wheat harvest to come in at 9.8 million tons, a good 30% under the 2011/12 crop.

“The loss is principally due to the inter-annual reduction in planting area,” the exchange said. “Yields were also affected by excessive rains.”

The ministry kept its soybean area estimate unchanged at 19.35 million hectares and corn estimate unchanged at 4.6 million hectares.

Argentina, the world's No. 3 exporter of soybeans and corn after the United States and Brazil, is expected to produce record harvests of both crops this season.

The government sees the soy harvest at 55 million tons or more and it expects a corn haul of 28 million to 30 million tons. But the country needs rain by the end of the month to support corn flowering, maximize yields and realize that forecast, farmers and agronomists say.

According to the exchange, 93.4% of Argentina's 2012/13 commercial use corn is in the ground, marking an advance of almost 5 percentage points during the week.

Argentine farmers have planted more than 96% of their 2012/13 soybeans, having advanced 5.3 percentage points over the week the exchange said.


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1 yankeeboy (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 12:10 pm Report abuse
Hmm Argentina predicting 9.5-10 so it will be somewhat less than that in the end. They need 9.5 for internal consumption.
I expect to see some begging for USA Wheat later in the year as stocks run out.
First time in the HISTORY OF ARGENTINA not being able to produce enough Wheat for export.
How that stupid stupid women can ruin FARMING their only real export is flabbergasting.

You'd think someone would fix that problem

I ask again are RGs dumb or lazy or both?
2 Idlehands (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 12:22 pm Report abuse
Isn't this something to do with farmers switching to other crops to avoid government restrictions?

Can't remember the details but it rings a bell.
3 yankeeboy (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 12:43 pm Report abuse
Yep, CFK put price controls on Wheat so they switched to Barley but that crop didn't come in very well either.
4 reality check (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 12:59 pm Report abuse
Stand by for a presidential decree telling them to shift back to wheat or face the taxapo.
5 LEPRecon (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 01:03 pm Report abuse
@4 - RC

It's probably too late to save the export market, unless the stupid bint decides to export the grain and let the people starve.

No doubt she'll be telling the population, “Let them eat cake!”, we can only hope CFK meets the same sticky end as Marie Antoinette.
6 Optimus_Princeps (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 01:16 pm Report abuse
@5 She can't afford the “let them eat cake” approach. Her voting base is a bunch of lazy free loaders, if they don't get to stuff their overfed faces they get violent, like with the supermarket raids and on top of their nightly shenanigans.

She will do something stupid, and possibly unpredictable, but still stupid. Rule number one of economics: Don't f**K with farmers. This will only end badly for her.
7 reality check (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 01:18 pm Report abuse
Like yankeeboy says, they will probably wind up importing it for the first time in their history. She will be okay though, all she has to do is cry Malvinas, and they will all behave like good little children.
8 redpoll (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 01:29 pm Report abuse
No the Argentine farmers are niether dumb nor lazy. The high taxation on wheat exports has made them to switch to a more profitable crop such as maize or soya
9 yankeeboy (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 01:53 pm Report abuse
8. If they wanted a change in gov't they could do it in less than a quarter of the year by withholding exports.
The gov't doesn't have enough U$ to buy fuel or pay for imports so without the Ag exports they would be screwed.
So if they don't stand up this year I stand by my statement that they're either dumb, lazy or both.
10 Shed-time (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 02:29 pm Report abuse
If I was that brain-addled by la campora propaganda, I'd probably have the behavioural traits of a dumb and lazy person too.

The fact is, it takes 500g of flour to make 12 cream buns, so 0.041kg per bun. Maximo clearly eats about 70 cream buns a day, so 25,550 cream buns a year. That's a metric ton of flour just on maximo's cream buns every year, and that's not accounting for his extra cinnamon whirls.
11 Britninja (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 03:07 pm Report abuse
@10 They're probably praying there daily that Maximo never gets coeliac disease - Argentina might drown in a diarrhea tidal wave.
12 Simon68 (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 04:09 pm Report abuse
There are two things that CFK should be keeping in mind if she wishes to reach the end of her mandate:

1) That the farmers have her over a big barrel, if they don't sell their harvest she will have no cash to keep the proleteriat happy.

2) Hugo Moyano's “camioneros” are the only ones who are able to bring the soy, wheat and corn harvest to the ports.

She is fighting a really nasty war with both these organizations and not getting anywhere, so unless she tries to make peace with them she will not get to 2015 in one piece!!!!!
13 Tobers (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 05:13 pm Report abuse
...unless she calls the army in to transport and process the grain. Hope not! Please let it be the straw that breaks the camel's back
14 Conqueror (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 05:38 pm Report abuse
@12 That sounds really encouraging. Troops on the streets, do you think? Is it worth keeping our fingers crossed and hoping for a violent change of government?
15 Drifter (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 06:23 pm Report abuse
After ten years od weakening armed forces, and recently facing them against her I dont think she will have that tool handy...
16 LEPRecon (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 06:29 pm Report abuse
@13 - Tobers

If the Army are brought in then it truly is the end for CFK. I reckon that the military would seize control under the pretense of 'maintaining' order, and it's goodbye pseudo democracy and hello complete dictatorship.

Tell me, how did the military seize control of Argentina last time? Was it under the pretense of 'maintaining' order?

It's been 30 years since the dirty war, and an entire generation has grown up not knowing just how bad the Junta was, and may even support the military. But it won't last, because the military, like all Argentine leaders will grab as much for themselves and feck the rest. This appears to be the norm in Argentine politics.

No, I don't think CFK would risk bringing in the military. She may, however, use her La Campora stormtroopers instead, becoming very reminiscent of Zimbabwae.

They'll 'take over' the farms, then because they are lazy sh!ts, they'll leave them to rot, but won't allow anyone else to use the land.

Any way you look at it, there's going to be blood on the streets, it's just a matter of when, and whose blood it'll be.
17 redpoll (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 06:40 pm Report abuse
@12 Simon Just not selling the grain isnt an option for the farmers. They have bills and wages to pay just like anyone else. But in the long term farmers will vote with thier seed drills and not plant wheat. I think about 9m tons are required for internal consumption. Anything below that and Argentina will have to IMPORT wheat. She has already killed the beef market. The whole thing is just cock eyed
BTW I wouldnt trust Moyano further than I could spit
18 Shed-time (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 06:45 pm Report abuse
@16 the parallel with Zimbabwean land reforms and the government's bully boys is quite true. At least if they take this option then their economy will be so ruined that it'll be years before they can put together any kind of military effort to recover the islands again. The deepening of the kirchener model definitely involves the dispatch of La Campora brown shirts onto the streets to do window smashing and such.

Either way, this crop isn't quite what they were expecting.
19 yankeeboy (#) Jan 21st, 2013 - 06:55 pm Report abuse
17. I think you are quite wrong, they would only need a quarter of the year or less to topple the gov't. If the Rgs can;t pull together defer payments and salaries for 3 months to right the ship then they get exactly what is coming for them and they should look to Zimbabwe or Cuba to see what a destroyed economy looks like.
Sometimes you have to take some immediate pain for the long term good but Rgs have never been very good at that as we all can plainly see.
When this goes it is going to go fast and really bad, much worse than 2001 and for much much longer.
It's now or never
Grow some balls and get it done.
20 mastershakejb (#) Jan 22nd, 2013 - 01:10 pm Report abuse
Its hilarious how the blue dollar market is “illegal”, but its done in every center of every town across Argentina in broad daylight in major city center buildings in front of clearly those dollars are going to Cristina, along with any profits attained from them. I know this from personal experience cause I was there myself, and everywhere I walked someone was offering to trade my dollars for blue rate, and I'd walk into city center buildings right in front of police and all, and “illegally” trade my dollars.
21 yankeeboy (#) Jan 22nd, 2013 - 04:21 pm Report abuse
Rut ro...major forecasters are revising down this years RG Soy crop, it was 56 now its 51 and if they don't get a nice steady rain in the next 21 days it will be revised down again...

Every U$ Billion not coming in is a U$B less they can afford in fuel & imports.
22 Nostrolldamus the 8th (#) Jan 22nd, 2013 - 07:22 pm Report abuse
US universities best in the world! ...

If you can come out from the alive!!!!
23 yankeeboy (#) Jan 23rd, 2013 - 02:07 pm Report abuse
Toby, Were you involved in the huge riot at the Mendoza soccer stadium? I heard many Police were hurt and some people died!

I saw 3 people were shot in the street in BA too!
Also someone was stabbed in a love triangle with a transvestite, were they fighting over you?

I could go on and on.

It must be awful to live in fear everyday that is why I moved out of that horrible place.
24 Doggy Rap (#) Jan 24th, 2013 - 09:05 pm Report abuse
According to Nostroll_TTT aka Toby the Argentine farmers are going to sow wheat in the US universities - what else is the relevance of #22 in relation to Argentine wheat harvest ???

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