Saturday, July 20th 2013 - 06:11 UTC

Argentina’s economic activity picks up 7.8% in May and 4.1% in first five months

Argentina's economic activity jumped 7.8% in May from a year earlier, according to the country’s questioned stats office, Indec. President Cristina Fernandez had anticipated the news earlier in the week in a televised speech.

Construction and auto industry are rebounding strongly

Between January and May, Argentina's economy expanded 4.1% over the same period last year and in April economic activity grew a faster-than-expected: 7%.

The monthly EMAE economic activity index is a close proxy for GDP, which is reported quarterly. The EMAE figures are always revised after the GDP numbers are released to put them in line.

Argentina is widely accused of manipulating inflation data and, to a lesser extent, growth data. It faces potential sanctions by the IMF, which has issued a “declaration of censure” against Argentina over the quality of its statistics.

Argentina which is Latam’s third economy (after Brazil and Mexico) grew 1.9% in 2012 versus 8.9% in 2011, according to official data. This reflected weak global demand for its exports, a poor grains harvest, high inflation and the negative impact of currency and trade controls on investment.

More recent data indicates the economy is rebounding thanks to the construction and auto sectors and a better grains harvest. An agreement reached with Chevron to develop vast shale oil and gas deposits has also boosted the energy sector which is costing the country 9 to 11 billion dollars in imports.

 

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1 Think (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 06:22 am Report abuse
Good news this chilly winter dawn, down here :-)))
2 Joe Bloggs (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 08:15 am Report abuse
According to INDEC. I appreciate that Mercopress struggles with accurate translation so I'll help them out.

Mercopress wrote:
CFK had anticipated the news earlier in the week.

The actual translation should have read:
CFK had ordered the news earlier in the week.

Credibility check anyone?

Chuckle chuckle.
3 Anglotino (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 08:18 am Report abuse
No one believes INDEC!

QED
4 Joe Bloggs (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 08:34 am Report abuse
Hey Anglotino. Long time no speak. I'm in a better time zone for catching you at the moment. How's it going in wintry Melbourne?
5 Faz (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 10:03 am Report abuse
Stink, you are confusing down with up. Too much single malt atrophied the brain! Unfortunately , your time stamp reveals the fib....
6 reality check (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 10:22 am Report abuse
Dawn arrives early in Argentina!
7 Faz (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 10:34 am Report abuse
Stink posted at dawn which is 5am in the UK. Dawn isn't until 1pm BST in Chubut. As I suspected Stink is an anti English Scot Nat. Probably Salmond in drag.

Enjoy your porridge Stink, you really are a bit of an idiot!
8 yankeeboy (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 11:04 am Report abuse
Is he too stupid to realize the time posted is GMT?
I guess
Also I am not sure who believes that the economy is growing, farming down, constriction down, tourism down, real estate mkt non existent, no cars to Brazil...
Are Rgs really this gullible?
9 Think (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 11:13 am Report abuse
TWIMC

So much posture just because an old man rises on the wee hours of the morning :-)))

Anyhow…………….... news are still good...
+4% economic grow so far in 2013…
Bumper crop…
Car exports up ~17%...
Construction up ~9%...

And, with a bit of luck, the old Saga of the Argentinean debt restructuring will be over before next winter…

Good news, indeed.
10 yankeeboy (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 11:28 am Report abuse
BTW your friend Voice is as dumb as you are, thinking Google maps will give you all the info you need to sound smart ( at least in your own head).

The Holdout issue will be over by our Winter..don't worry.

Bumper crops hmm that's odd since they're out of wheat and the tax revenue isn't keeping up with the fuel imports.
I wonder why?

I also wonder where this mythical construction number is coming from since Steel and Concrete numbers are down? What are they building with these days in that horrible place? Mud and Thatch?
11 Faz (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 11:34 am Report abuse
Think, you are a fraud. You claim you post from Chubut at dawn clearly time stamped when dawn is still 6 hours away! You are obviously trying to make out you live in RGland when you are actually enjoying Europe, I suspect Scotland. You have made a stupid mistake (again!).
Tell us why we should believe anything you say?
It's common knowledge that RGland is going down the pan which is why no-one wants to lend it any more $. You can try to put a positive spin on things, but it doesn't impress anyone. Like your incompetent failed foreign minister RGlands propaganda is a laughing matter in the civilised world.
12 Conqueror (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 01:17 pm Report abuse
@2 Inclined to agree. Is this the last gasp before the collapse? Or just more false statistics to make things look better. With K support apparently dwindling, she obviously needs something to “retrieve her fortunes”. Properly planned, “her” millions will already be abroad. Will she want to take all her “outfits”? Watch out for the removal van! Quick dash across to Uruguay?
13 ChrisR (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 01:59 pm Report abuse
The figures are easily explained by the fact they are expressed as percentages of improvement.

The base figures used for the calculation were the worst in the history of The Dark Country so ANY small amount in actual on the ground improvement relates to a respectable percentage.

The ONLY figure that counts is the year end one and we all know what that will be: a disaster.
14 Marcos Alejandro (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 03:53 pm Report abuse
Great news! So much for those yankeedick predictions :-))))))))))))))))))
15 Think (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 03:57 pm Report abuse
Turnip at (13) allows me to “Make a Point”........

He says....:
”The base figures used for the calculation were the worst in the history of (Argentina), so ANY small amount.............. blah, blah, blahhh.

I say...:
1) The base figures used for the calculation are the INDEC figures from last year.....

2) The INDEC figures from last year were not good..., but by no means even close to the “Worst in the history of Argentina”.....

3) As this article rightly says, INDEC's last years figures reflected a meager growth of 1.9% due to weak global demand for our exports, a poor grains harvest, high inflation and some negative impact of currency controls.....

4) As this article also says, this year INDEC data indicates that “The economy is rebounding thanks to the construction and auto sectors and a better grains harvest”......

The question that arises is....:
If, as many say, INDEC “always” lies...
Why were their figures so bad last year...?
16 reality check (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 04:06 pm Report abuse
Last years figures were bad?

The true figures were worse!!!!
17 Brit Bob (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 05:38 pm Report abuse
@15

INDEC inflation = 10.6%
V
Private estimates = 22.4 %

Yearly inflation to May 2013

Let us not forget the IMF Yellow card for producing inaccurate statistics on growth and inflation. And the 'Great Malvinas Lie'. Plus comments like, 'they have no rights, they are squatters, colonial implants' from Tin Pot politicians like CFK and the Tin man (fools no one).
18 yankeeboy (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 06:09 pm Report abuse
When you pump 40% more $ into an economy you are bound to have some growth.
It should be a LOT LOT more than they have tho
STAGFLATION
what will it bring
HYPERINFLATION and DEPRESSION
I'm no where near wrong Marki
Plus if i remember correctly ANSES is required to fund and build houses for the poor this election year.
Is that most of the construction figure?
Not really growth if you take it from retirement savings and force it into current cash tho
Aye there's the rub
19 Conqueror (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 06:25 pm Report abuse
Good to see. #14 and #15 were in quick. The situation is indeed desperate. And from whom? The two biggest argie pricks that get on here!
20 Think (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 06:36 pm Report abuse
Turnip at (18) forgot to predict the return of the Halley comet in 2061 when it, most certainly, will fall over Argentina ;-)))
21 ChrisR (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 06:47 pm Report abuse
I Don't Think, aka The Suicide In Waiting

Read the above posts: says it all really, INDEC!
22 yankeeboy (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 07:01 pm Report abuse
Rg are predicting 34% inflation this year.
What do you think bread will cost at eoy $40/Kilo?
30% of the avg weeks pay for more than 50% of the country?
Bahahahaha
23 Frank (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 08:39 pm Report abuse
Finally thicko blows his cover.

Thicko, even an incontinent old nong like you doesn't call it 'dawn' when he gets up at 03dark for his nth leak of the night.
24 yankeeboy (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 09:45 pm Report abuse
Oops that should have been 3%.

Anyone know how many toilet rolls it costs for a decent meal in BA now?
25 Think (#) Jul 20th, 2013 - 10:35 pm Report abuse
(23) Frank the Yank
Well.........
Obviously I do :-)))
26 Faz (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 06:44 am Report abuse
Think! Its well past your rising time . Watch it, Gollum will dock your pay. No Sunday lie in for you.
27 Think (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 08:08 am Report abuse
Turnip at (26)
I was up and here at about 06:30 GMT....
But, because I was the last person to comment on this article, I had to wait for a new comment to be posted in order to generate a valuable dialogue.....

Anyhow here I am, enjoying yet another beautifull Patagonian winter dawn in my beloved though imperfect Argentina....
(I'm a “Wabi-Sabi” kind of person :-)
28 Faz (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 09:03 am Report abuse
Idiot at 27. Please explain how you are enjoying a dawn when dawn doesn't arrive in Patagonia for 4 more hours? Sorry , but you are clearly lying about your location. You are also very well informed on current UK matters which leads to the logical conclusion that you are resident in the UK. You are also anti English so my conclusion you are living in Scotland. My closest English friend was born in BA and he agrees. You are a fraud clearly in the pay of one Mrs Castro or Gollum the failed diplomat.
29 Vestige (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 10:38 am Report abuse
lol @ 28 / Lieutenant Columbo
“You are also very well informed on current UK matters which leads to the logical conclusion that you are resident in the UK.”

yeah and so are folks in every corner of the world, from the ex-pat in Spain to the Chinese journalist, to the American retiree planning a vacation.

You are also anti English so my conclusion you are living in Scotland.
lol that could well be true of someone living in Scotland ... or Wales.... or Ireland. Or even France come to think of it. Or possibly, of all places, even Argentina.

Dawn.
Noun
The first appearance of light in the sky before sunrise: “the rose-pink light of dawn”.

Oh Im sorry sir ...just one last thing...

Thinks post - 06.22 am. (GMT)
It seems (recently) that this site has been marking comments at GMT ....minus 1 hour.

Making thinks post - 07.22 am real GMT.

In BA time thats GMT minus 4 .... 03.22 am

My wife, sir ...shes always looking at this link thing...says it tells the dawn time in different places. Technology these days - I tell ya.

www.moonsigncalendar.net/sunrise.asp?ort=Buenos%20Aires,%20Argentina&Lon=58.45&Lat=34.6&zeitzone=3&monat=7&jahr=2013

(google: moonsign calendar buenos aires)

step this way...
30 Think (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 10:48 am Report abuse
Turnip at (28)
If it makes you happy. I could call those early Patagonian morning hours for pre-down... Or pre-pre-down if you so prefer......

Please, do ask that close English friend of yours born in BA the following (simple ;-) question...: “¿ De qué color es la bandera de mi Patria ?”
Let him show us how “Argie” he really is ...
31 Faz (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 11:55 am Report abuse
Think, sunrise in Chubut is 9am local time, are you an insomniac , or, just a liar? The latter I Think'. I seem to have stirred another troll into life! My English friend is no friend of RGland. Like all of us he regards your country with suspicion. Invading peaceful islands, reneging on debts and coming to resemble a Nazi state where politics is enforced by gangs of thugs is abhorrent to us English and other civilised countries. If I can speak for him I think he would say red white and blue. That Nancy blue thing with the yellow target in the middle, and that other white flag your armed forces keep waving don't stir his heart.
32 yankeeboy (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 01:51 pm Report abuse
In Argentina they have gangs of “Asphalt Pirates” which are people that rob delivery truck ( imagine). Anyway they've given up robbing trucks filled with electronics and are not taking FOOD TRUCKS!!
It is dire in horrible place
but I guess tomatoes are pretty valuable there

bahahahahaha

I also hear the people getting expressed kidnapped are now asking for their weight in flour. snicker
33 Captain Poppy (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 03:47 pm Report abuse
Yankee the explanation for the dichotomy in the construction and steel and concrete numbers is quite simple and you failed to see it. Naturally steel and concrete is down but that rise in construction is in the villa's, in particular villa 31.
Cold cold cold today in Recoletta.....perhaps snow this evening.
34 yankeeboy (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 04:31 pm Report abuse
I was shocked the last time I went to BA and saw how HUGE the Slum by Retiro has become! Shocked! When I moved there it was 2 levels and just right around Retiro. A year ago it was 4 levels and goes to the next train station to the north ( can't remember the name) plus they have some sort of new annext to the south east. Crazy!
No running water, sewage in the streets, no police presence, stolen electricity but Direct Tv. Gads what a life.
35 Marcos Alejandro (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 05:42 pm Report abuse
20 Think ”Turnip at (18) forgot to predict the return of the Halley comet in 2061 when it, most certainly, will fall over Argentina ;-)))

:-)))))))))))))) Yep, that's yankeedickboy Fred

Talking about predictions, just south from your beautiful provincia there is another Yank friend of Frank doing the same..

“The flame of the Holy Spirit is prophesied to start in
Tierra Del Fuego at the ”ends of the earth“ and spread
North to who knows where; through Argentina, Chile, Central,
South and North America, Canada”

Holy S... “Pastor” Ben

www.victory-cruises.com/ukika_indian_church.html
36 MagnusMaster (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 06:43 pm Report abuse
@34 remember that people who move in to these slums had it worse when they lived before. Also a lot of these squatters are Peronist punteros who rent those places to the poor. If you want to know why people still vote Peronists, that's the reason.
37 yankeeboy (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 07:07 pm Report abuse
I hear a lot of Paraguayans are leaving Arg and are being replaced with Bolivians.
One of my Rg friends just got back from BA after living here for 5 yrs and said he didn't recognize the city or people any longer.
38 Dany Berger (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 07:29 pm Report abuse
The debacle took on hilarious overtones when a Greek reporter, in her soft, harmless-looking manner, began to crucify Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino during an interview at his office:

“I have a very simple question for you, which seems very complicated these days: how much is Argentine inflation at this moment?”

His response was an epic journey into obfuscation that got him entangled in such verbal spaghetti that the video, when it was released in April, went viral instantly.

“We never speak about inflation, not even with the Argentine media,” an unseen aide explained after the minister had skedaddled.

But his jab at official inflation was on target. The interview took place late last year. By April, inflation, as reported by the Instituto Nacional de Estadista, was 10.5%, down from 10.6% in March, and from 11.1% in January, its recent peak, nicely heading once again in the right direction, after having been below 10% for much of 2012. But it’s a joke – though not nearly as hilarious as Lorenzino’s verbal spaghetti. Face it....Argentine's are stupid enough to believe whatever we tell them to believe so deal with it and this is our inflation numbers. And where is that fake dany fucker??? Did he do as Lorenzino?

“I want to leave”
39 Marcos Alejandro (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 08:27 pm Report abuse
38 Desperate impostor ignored.
40 Anglotino (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 09:59 pm Report abuse
Is Nostrils the only actual Argentine on here?

Tsk tsk Think why did you have to go ruin it.
41 Frank (#) Jul 21st, 2013 - 11:33 pm Report abuse
@27 el Thicko
If I wake up at 0300 local I don't 'greet the dawn' .... instead I normally roll over and indulge in a little bit of kiwi foreplay ... 'are you awake?'.

I guess that doesn't work with your dogs.....
42 Think (#) Jul 22nd, 2013 - 04:00 am Report abuse
TWIMC

And yet some more beautifull Patagonian winter pre-dawn early morning hours in my beloved though imperfect Argentina....
Not so chilly today..........
Not at all.....
Wonder what good economic news the online Argie newspapers wil bring today..... :-)))

(41) Frank the Yank
“Kiwi foreplay?”
Ain’t that kind of thing illegal nowdays...?
At least for that Ozzie in the London Ecuadorian embassy….
I ”Think” I'll better go out and water the lemon tree, as they do in Invercargill…
43 Brit Bob (#) Jul 22nd, 2013 - 10:53 am Report abuse
The numbers are still being cooked in Buenos Aires.

www.businessinsider.com/the-numbers-are-still-being-cooked-in-buenos-aires-2013-7
44 Anglotino (#) Jul 22nd, 2013 - 12:32 pm Report abuse
Think you always try to cover up your mistakes the same way.

Stop being so predictable.

It's alright, Heisenbergcontext couldn't get his times right either.

But it's 10.30 and time for bed. Of that time, I'm 100% sure.
45 Think (#) Jul 22nd, 2013 - 05:49 pm Report abuse
Turnip at (43)

You found a blogger that writes negatively about Argentina’s economy in a “Financial Website” managed by a certain Mr. Henry Blodget, a former managing director at Merrill Lynch, permanently barred from the securities industry because of fraudulent research..........

Mr. Blodget's conduct constituted violations of the federal securities laws and NASD and NYSE rules, which require that, among other things, published research reports have a reasonable basis, present a fair picture of the investment risks and benefits, and not make exaggerated or unwarranted claims.
www.sec.gov/news/press/2003-56.htm

Good job......
46 True Blue (#) Jul 23rd, 2013 - 05:42 am Report abuse
@4-
Anglotino claims to be Australian but he is what we true blue Aussies call a pommie bastard. He and the others are imported pollution in our fair land.
47 yankeeboy (#) Jul 23rd, 2013 - 10:19 am Report abuse
The ridiculously idiotic Rg Ambassador to the USA is warning that “relations with the USA will suffer” with a bad verdict from NYC.
What an embarrassing moron.
48 Vestige (#) Jul 23rd, 2013 - 12:20 pm Report abuse
lol Think pwns yet another one.
49 yankeeboy (#) Jul 23rd, 2013 - 01:10 pm Report abuse
Well at least the traffic should be a bit lighter CFK stopped the CNG to the gas stations.
Bahahaha
50 Captain Poppy (#) Jul 24th, 2013 - 12:25 am Report abuse
Really interesting article:

“Difficulties with the Chinese have been quieter, but also troubling. The Heilongjiang Beidahuang State Farms Business Trade Group, a Chinese investment entity, had agreed to help build a range of large projects from wind farms to port improvements to railroads in Buenos Aires province.”

“These have been delayed because of the political situation,” said Oscar Gomez, an adviser to the group.

www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/13/us-argentina-economy-insight-idUSBRE95C04T20130613

The trade surplus is most likely not enough to overcome the loss of foreign investment. What a way to finance when you are ostracized from the international capital markets for not paying your bills.
51 Hepatia (#) Jul 24th, 2013 - 01:39 pm Report abuse
en.mercopress.com/2013/07/20/argentina-s-economic-activity-picks-up-7.8-in-may-and-4.1-in-first-five-months#comment262761: Never the less the site does have some interesting articles. For instance,

www.businessinsider.com/the-uks-huge-war-on-online-pornography-2013-7

Between this, the existing “Official Secrects Law” (UK, not the Soviet Union), “D Notices” and the unbelievable powers of detention etc, the UK is, unfortunately, a police state.

What many US conservatives do not understand is that what British conservatives want to conserve is big, instrusive, top down government control.
52 Dany Berger (#) Jul 24th, 2013 - 02:20 pm Report abuse
Argentina’s official economic growth surprised analysts with a 7.8% year over year jump in May.
Cristina Fernandez should be congratulated for this incredible achievement in the face of numerous adversities faced by the nation. But can the growth numbers be trusted?
Argentina is widely accused of manipulating inflation data and, to a lesser extent, growth data. It faces potential sanctions by the IMF, which has issued a “declaration of censure” against Argentina over the quality of its statistics.
Even though the inflation number is heavily “understated”, the growth numbers reported by the offficials should be more reliable? But this 7.8% number is meant to approximate the “real” instead of the “nominal” measure of the GDP growth. Which means that inflation numbers are key to this determination. The official inflation rate reported by the same government agency is 10.5%, while the actual number is more than double that amount. Computed using a more accurate inflation measure, the real GDP is likely to be negative.
Inflation is likely to remain entrenched above 20% during 2013-2014, given inertial pressures, the continuation of very accommodative monetary conditions, a deteriorating fiscal stance, and accelerating ARS [Argentina peso] depreciation. The monetary stance remains very lax (negative real interest rates), and the central bank continued to accommodate inflation at a very high level. In all, we expect the authorities to continue to subordinate low and stable inflation to fiscal and growth imperatives (severe fiscal dominance). This strategy is likely to lead to further pressure on the ARS to depreciate.
And pressure on the ARS continues. Earlier this year when Argentina was expected to default on its dollar debt (see post), the dollar hoarding in the black market forced greenbacks to spike to over 10 pesos. Since then the peso stabilized at around 8, but recently the black market activity has picked up again.
And you gotta love those bonds!!!
53 A_V0ice (#) Jul 24th, 2013 - 10:32 pm Report abuse
personal wealth of approximately $80 million US dollars that she accumulated by stealing public funds and land.
Argentina AFIP steals seizes personal property from citizens and residents of Argentina to give to the president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. Kirchner uses AFIP inspections to invent supposed tax evaders and seize their personal property. Has shut off access to foreign currency to all citizens of Argentina, does not allow citizens to sell property or transfer their money or property out of Argentina. Arbitrarily invents taxes to steal and seize personal property. Arbitrary inspections of citizens private homes and businesses and falsely acuses citizens of not declaring income. Argentina the most corrupt government in the history of the country with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner president, Amadou Boudou vice president, Hugo Chavez close ally supplies weapons to Kirchner army to keep citizens oppressed AVOID ARGENTINA at all costs, Argentina is talking about starting wars and taking over territories in Chile and the Falkland Islands, to cover up the rampant government corruption and drug trafficking that the president Kirchner is directly involved in. AFIP Argentina terrorists trapped citizens Argentina goverment steals from everyone in the country and transfers the stolen money to offshore accounts. Argentina AFIP has trained dogs to smell money on citizens of Argentina.
A deadly train crash in Buenos Aires, Argentina has left 50 people dead and 700 people seriously injured. Trains in deplorable dangerous conditions, Kirchner government steals money for public works and leaves all public utilites in dangerous and perilous conditions. Victims without any recourse all judges in Argentina in Kirchner government are paid bribes total absence of justice total corrupt Cristina Kirchner government Vatayon, La Campora, Maximo, Florencia Kircher drug dealers.

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