Thursday, April 24th 2014 - 07:05 UTC

Argentine broad front opens possibility of runoff dispute in 2015 presidential election

Political analyst Rosendo Fraga believes that with the integration this week of the Broad Front, Argentina in the 2015 presidential elections in the hypothetical case of a runoff, would experience a dispute not between two Peronists options, as opinion polls have indicated to far, but with a non Peronist alternative.

Binner, Scioli, Massa, Cobos, Macri , one of them will possibly replace Cristina Fernandez when she steps down in December 2015

 But Fraga also points out that the idea of a broad front is not new in recent Argentine politics: in the mid-term legislative elections of 2009, there was a left leaning Social and Civic Accord made up of Socialists, Radicals, the GEN and the Civic Coalition which mustered 30% of cast votes.

However in the presidential election of 2011, the Social and Civic front split in three, with Socialist Hermes Binner catching 17% of the vote; the Radicals of Ricardo Alfonsín, 10% and the Civic Coalition from Elisa Carrió, 2%. In other words adding up to 29%, as two years before, but the division enabled President Cristina Fernandez' re-election victory with the greatest difference over the runner up (more than forty percentage points) and an overall performance with 54% of the vote which would make the old leader Peron envious.

Again in the midterm legislative elections of 2013 the left leaning front again voted divided, with no national organization of net.

But now, says Fraga the 2009 experience is back with the addition of some smaller even more left leaning groupings, which did not integrate in previous experiences.

“The thirteen public opinion polls on vote intention for president published in the last six months since the midterm election show Tigre mayor and lawmaker Sergio Massa in first place followed by Daniel Scioli, Buenos Aires province governor”. Both belong to the ruling Peronist movement, the first dissident and the second aligned with Cristina Fernandez.

However the dispersed votes from Hermes Binner, Julio Cobos, Elisa Carrió and Ernesto Sanz, now are under an only electoral banner, together they could garner almost the same percentage as governor Scioli. Thus the Broad Front has emerged as a real electoral competitive alternative with the possibility of disputing the 2015 election.

Thus the Argentine political scenario is divided in four main forces: two of Peronist roots, the Renewal Front of Massa and the Victory Front of governor Scioli who might have to confront challengers sponsored by Cristina Fernandez, such as Entre Rios governor Sergio Uribarri or Minister Florencio Randazzo. The other two groupings are non Peronist: the left leaning broad front or FAP-UNEN and PRO with conservative Mauricio Macri, mayor of the Buenos Aires City.

These two last groupings allied could be even more challenging, however they reject Macri as 'ideologically different' and it's very hard to imagine a consensus could be reached.

Nevertheless a hypothetical run off in 2015, could after all eliminate the two Peronist alternatives scenario and limit it to only one Peronist alternative. Likewise such an alliance would force Macri to change his electoral strategy since he would no longer be a kind of 'non political' hopeful.

But there is another option without integration, leaving aside ideology and thinking in electoral terms, the broad front and PRO could agree to the non Peronist alternative in the runoff.

Concluding for Fraga, the new political alternative born this week in Buenos Aires opens the possibility of a hypothetical runoff with no longer two Peronist alternatives, as public opinion polls have been constantly confirming, so far.

22 comments Feed

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1 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 24th, 2014 - 01:43 pm Report abuse
I would like to see a UNEN-PRO alliance. Cobos-Macri and Lilita in Justice Ministry to jail all the thiefs that won a decade, I know it's wishful thinking, however there is 2 years more to go and many things can happen even hours before election day. If the economy collapses, crisis spirals, default, etc.

Its actually good news and healthy they made this alliance even of they dont ally with Macri
2 MagnusMaster (#) Apr 24th, 2014 - 04:15 pm Report abuse
With the Socialists working for Kirchner I don´t see an alliance with PRO. It doesn´t help that they have too different ideologies. But the big problem with UNEN is that none of those parties is making real politics (well maybe the Socialists do but with the narcos). Votes without power are worthless in Argentina, and they need to act rather than talk. They need to take over the trade unions, media, corporations, and do charity work in the north but without forcing them to vote for you, then they have a chance.
3 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 24th, 2014 - 06:37 pm Report abuse

The rest of UNEN can simply stuff the Socialists and Solanas and pact with Macri. Who cares?

Binner has a disaster in Santa Fe's narco war. And it will only get worse. They should just get rid of him. Its better if he leaves and goes independent, he may even bring some K left wing orphan votes out of Scioli.
4 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 24th, 2014 - 11:47 pm Report abuse
So many options, but, you know, there might even also be a Kirchnerist candidate supported by Cristina...
5 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 02:04 am Report abuse

The nominal K support will go for Scioli but he's not going to beat Massa. Kirchnerism is dead in 2015.

Though she would really and deeply want Macri to win for him to do the adjustments and the cuts and pay the bills of the “lost decade”. A Conservative gov't doing cuts is far easier to attack in opposition.

Peronism will remove La Campora after 2015 which is the truly Kirchnerist party and all the vestiges of power they have
6 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 10:04 am Report abuse
“Though she would really and deeply want Macri to win for him to do the adjustments and the cuts and pay the bills of the “lost decade”. A Conservative gov't doing cuts is far easier to attack in opposition”

Yes for her own interests that could be best - she'd be a shoe-in for 2019 once the people got a bit of Macri's policies! But as even the Economist said, she actually believes in her politics, so I think she'd want a candidate who can continue the struggle for social inclusion and the won decade. That also rules out Scioli who has the opposite views from her on most issues and would actually fit in well to Cameron's Tories or Clegg's LibDems; as a close friend and ally of Chavez I doubt she'd see that as much of a legacy!

“Peronism will remove La Campora after 2015 which is the truly Kirchnerist party and all the vestiges of power they have”

Again you talk about Kirchnerism as if its a passive subject of others' maneouverings and not a movement that will fight for its own interests and beliefs
7 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 11:15 am Report abuse
“Again you talk about Kirchnerism as if its a passive subject of others' maneouverings and not a movement that will fight for its own interests and beliefs”

Kirchnerism is CFK and a bunch of brainless sheeps cheering on her while the smart ones get to be bureaucrats and sit in government offices and parasite the state. Once you take gov't and control the budgets these guys are dead, -and probably Massa will put his own in the offices which are key- La Campora never has being out of power and Maximo is a tool.

That she doesnt have her own candidate for 2015 is a indicator of how much of a authoritarian and greedy bitch she is. She doesn't stand even the slightest competition of anybody.

Maybe that is why she killed Nestor Kirchner.
8 MagnusMaster (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 03:00 pm Report abuse
@3 even without Binner I doubt a UNEN-PRO coalition will work out. It would work as well as Alfonsin-De Narvaez in 2011. And voters will not vote a coalition that couldn't even survive until elections.
9 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 07:54 pm Report abuse
Macri has almost the same vote intention as Scioli has. Binner is half that round 6 or 7 % and it will go lower as the drug war progresses.

The rest of the left gets round 30% as Fraga says. So with Binner out 7% you are left in 23% but then you bring in the 13 % Center right non peronist and it should do the trick as to get to the ballotage.
10 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 10:02 pm Report abuse
#9 Very exact psephology (sources?), but I expect it will all be shaken up when Cristina's candidate enters the fray, no?
11 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 25th, 2014 - 11:13 pm Report abuse

What part of Scioli is Cristina's candidate dont you understand ??? Who else if not?

If she appoints Urribarri, Randazo or any of those nobodies at national stage she will only help fraction the peronist vote and it will benefit FA-UNEN-(PRO??)

Its clear that Massa's 30.6 + Scioli's 13.4 and Randazo's 6. 2 is roughly the 50,2% you are missing those 4 % to reach the +54% Cristina got in 2011
Which must be in those 15 % undecided.
12 MagnusMaster (#) Apr 26th, 2014 - 01:43 am Report abuse
@9 It's not so simple. Any political analyst (or person with common sense) will tell you you can't add vote intentions like that. A coalition between the Radicals and Macri would do even less than the Radicals or Macri alone since the parties don't complement well. The whole is much less than the sum of the parts.
13 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 26th, 2014 - 02:06 am Report abuse
Magnus if the polling numbers were not as such then why would Carrio, Aguad, Cobos feel the need to have Macri in their camp??... Its only the left wing dinosaurs and petty, prejudicial minds of theirs that dont want an Alliance with Macri as they feel endangered in their own personal agenda as they would have to compete in many lists and offices with PRO candidates.

As I noted before Cristina's 54% is intact amongst those candidates Massa, Scioli, Randazzo, and then you can add Capitanich, Urribarri or whoever that sector is not going to overpass the 50%. But then you have a 15% undecided that can go either way in a ballotage.

Also you need to take into account the effects of a full crisis that its bearly in its infancy as to what consequences it may bring. The myth that only peronist can govern is about to be completaly broken. These kind of crisis only happened so far (and by chance) to the Radical governments.

You put in Macri and give him a national structure and he can take the government.
14 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 26th, 2014 - 04:45 pm Report abuse
#11 “What part of Scioli is Cristina's candidate dont you understand ???”

The bit where they have no common policies and have publicly hated on each other for years. Then again, I suppose LatAm is the land of magical realism!

“Who else if not?”

I'm tempted to ask who could be worse, from the perspective of her own politics which even the Economist says she sincerely believes. But there are actually many very impressive options. Personally I would like it to be Timmerman. Or a re-re-election, of course...

#12 Wise man, this psephology seems a bit cod to me...

#13 “As I noted before Cristina's 54% is intact amongst those candidates Massa, Scioli, Randazzo, and then you can add Capitanich, Urribarri or whoever that sector is not going to overpass the 50%”

What you seem to assume is that “Cristina's 54$%” = “Peronism”. I doubt its as simple as that - Axel on here (and even Zanini at the top of the government!) is a non-Peronist Kirchnerist, for example. As am I actually, though I don't have a vote!
15 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 27th, 2014 - 01:30 am Report abuse

I dont understand what your point is
Cristina can only appoint or bless candidates that are going to battle the votes within the 54%. The non Peronist vote +40% is a mixture of UNEN, PRO, and elements of extreme left.
16 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 27th, 2014 - 04:26 pm Report abuse
#15 My point is that “Cristina can only appoint or bless candidates that are going to battle the votes within the 54%” is a very static view of politics. Some of that 54% may now have turned against her and others who were not part of it come round to seeing her or at least her politics as preferable to a more IMF friendly approach; such shifts are natural in politics. And while some of the 54% may have voted for her because she was “the Peronist”, there were other Peronist candidates and some of her vote will have been, surely, for her actual left policies. In fact 71% voted left last time as Binner was the runner up; and I don't think all of his voters will approve of getting close to Macri!

So all in all I think you overestimate the importance of Peronism and drastically underestimate Kirchnerism. Scioli from what I've seen of his views and persona would fit in nicely in Cameron's Tories or Clegg's LibDems, and Cristina herself has called him inept in public. Cristina on the other hand has a dog given to her by Chavez' brother and named for Bolivar, celebrated Ash Wednesday with a mass for Chavez, and follows the tradition of the left Peronists in the 70s who stood up to General Peron himself, so I just don't see her, with the fighting spirit she has, endorsing a candidate who does little to hide that he'd undo all her good work
17 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 27th, 2014 - 11:58 pm Report abuse

You understand nothing of Argentine mentality and politics... You read to much KK crap propaganda but not any objective source about the matter.

CFK descendants are not going to get more of the 54%. Peronism will walk in procession to the cementery with the Kirchnerist but they will not go in whith them.

Peronism is a culture an attitude rather than an ideology, and they are with whomever has the money and the votes. Massa is the new, Cristina is old and outdated.

You have a lot to understand and know about.
18 British_Kirchnerist (#) Apr 28th, 2014 - 10:28 am Report abuse
“Peronism will walk in procession to the cementery with the Kirchnerist but they will not go in whith them”

That seems to be Scioli's calculation; I just don't think his opportunism will be rewarded, especially as I don't believe Kirchnerism or the left in general are marching to the cemetery...

“Massa is the new, Cristina is old and outdated”

Massa even more than Sciloi stands for the old society, for the old elites, banksters and vultures; if that's the future then we're all doomed! Cristinita on the other hand stands for the wav of the future, and in her spirit and her looks is forever young =)
19 Tobers (#) Apr 28th, 2014 - 01:13 pm Report abuse
Please don't treat british Kirchnerist seriously. Don't feed him/her/it. He/she/ it talks of CFKs commitment to social inclusion while she and her band of thieves live the high life. Mujica she is not.

The campora is simply a bunch of evangelists. Nothing more
20 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 28th, 2014 - 02:24 pm Report abuse
Many variants of Peronism have come up during the years...Other than the General himself, just Campora gov't version of Peronism, Menem version of Peronism lived and died out, then you had Duhalde for some few years and now Kircher version of Peronism is reaching the end of the cycle and for good...

I’m amused by his ingenuity and “make himself believe” ideas of Argentine politics.
21 MagnusMaster (#) Apr 28th, 2014 - 02:49 pm Report abuse
@13 you are right the polls seem to suggest the people want an UNEN-PRO alliance, which I did not expect at all. But that still isn't enough. Just because CFK screwed up that doesn't mean that the Peronist monopoly is over. They still control the trade unions, media, key corporations, the feudos, and of course, the mafia. I don't see how even having an economic disaster is going to hurt them. The only way the Peronists can lose power is the complete collapse of the state (which can only help the narcos), civil war or someone taking over slowly all their political tentacles.
22 CabezaDura2 (#) Apr 28th, 2014 - 03:18 pm Report abuse

After a total collapse before 2015 what a UNEN-PRO alliance would need to do is finish a first term successfully. That would be a imperative for them.

The problem with the argentine electorate is that they want Cristina out, no more corruption, authoritarianism which is cool, but a majority of people almost 60% still wants the same “model”... And the model is almost done for and everything was fictional.

How do you promise in 2015 more Tv's, travells, cars, cheap service tariffs, subsidies to consumption when the whole system is already falling apart??

That is the problem, the adjustments have to be made like it or not. And I don’t see the social democrat bunch being honest about this.

Just check out how Massa doesn't condemn “the ajuste”... he just talks about inflation and insecurity

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