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Montevideo, December 18th 2017 - 18:26 UTC
Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016, the government's Indec statistics agency said in a report on Thursday, down from 8.5% in the third quarter as thousands of people stopped looking for work. Read full article
Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016...down from 8.5% in the third quarter...
Of course it would be good news if unemployment had started to fall. However, this is not the general feeling in Argentina, as SMEs continue to fall under the weigh of backward exchange rate, high costs and lack of customs controls.
In addition, valid comparisons take into account a quarter in the current year and the same quarter in the previous year. In this case, such comparison isn't possible because the Macri government suspended INDEC information for the fourth quarter of 2015 while it fixed the statistics system
It would indeed by a major feat of the government to reduce unemployment when thousands of SMEs are closing doors and the economy continues to contract. Perhaps the difference was made by the numerous friends, family members and supporters of Cambiemos who were hired--wich much higher wages--in public positions after the maligned Kirchnerists ñoquis were gone...
Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016...down from 8.5% in the third quarter...”
Where is the problem here, Enrique?
...this is not the general feeling...
You counter statistics with unsubstantiated speculation.
In addition, valid comparisons take into account a quarter in the current year and the same quarter in the previous year. In this case, such comparison isn't possible because the Macri government suspended INDEC information for the fourth quarter of 2015 while it “fixed” the statistics system
So, you say there is no Annual comparison?
A year ago CFK reported that Poverty was under 5%, less than Germany, and the INDEC under CFK refused to report the true figures.
The same INDEC under CFK that reported inflation was at 12% when independent analysts put it at 35%.
No wonder there is no annual comparison.
Perhaps the difference was made by the numerous friends, family members and supporters of Cambiemos who were hired--wich much higher wages--in public positions after the maligned Kirchnerists “ñoquis” were gone..
Anything to back that up, Enrique?
That would be about 0.5m friends hired in one quarter to make that difference.
...at higher wages”. You must have privileged and very very current sources of information within the government.
Care to share them with us?
Malicious speculation on your part.
High wages for public service noquis was EVITA K's model - you had no problem with it, then...
“Argentina's unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2016...down from 8.5% in the third quarter...”
The problem is exactly what the article says it is: employment has not increased, some people have simply given up looking for work.
I suppose at least employment did not fall any further, but the strikes and demonstrations happening now are hardly a positive sign, any more than they were under CFK.
With respect, DT, a very good point.
In many cases I believe this to be a factor.
However, it is again, speculation with nothing to back it up beyond your speculation.
On that note, in a country such as Argentina, a country of chronic and relatively consistent unemployment for a decade, do you really think this is suddenly a factor creating such a large difference in only three months?
I appreciate that you are trying to be objective about this.
It wasn't my idea, it's what the article says:
That did not boost total employment, however, as the number of Argentines with jobs remained steady at around 11.5 million. The economically active population, including those working or actively looking for work, fell by nearly 150,000 to 12.4 million.
“The drop in the unemployment rate is explained almost entirely by the drop in labor participation,” said Jorge Colina, economist at the Argentine Institute for Social Development, a think tank. “At the end of the year, as the holidays approach, they give up looking and plan to try again in March.”
If you don't believe it you can try looking up the stats on labour participation and unemployment and comparing them yourself. Personally I am willing to take his word for it.
So, unemployment reamains stable.
It might interest EM to read the other earth-shattering anti-Macri stories from Argentina, Man not bitten by dog etc.
Argentina is rapidly leaving behind any discussion about semantics, as citizens begin to go down to the streets to demonstrate their discontent about the economic policies of the current government, as pointed out by DT. The CGT's first general strike since Macri took power, on the other hand, has been set for April 6.
One may now choose to remain in denial, or take off the pink-coloured glasses and acknowledge the damage that the Macri government is needlessly inflicting on the very same who believed his pre-election lies and propped him to the highest office.
Fifteen months ago I predicted what Macri was going to do based on his history, ideology and the kind of campaign he ran. I am not happy to be proven right--the consequences are too painful for the majority of the Argentines.
Yesterday's blunder of a senior newspaper in Argentina, that is Clarin's claim that former Spanish prime minister Felipe Gonzalez asked Macri when Cristina was going to jail during a tête-à-tête encounter clearly shows the increasing desperation of powerful interests represented by the newspaper and their attempt to eliminate CFK as a potential candidate in the October legislative election. The immediate denial of the Gonzalez and the Casa Rosada's official silence is eloquent and leaves Clarin's credibility in tatters.
Fifteen months ago I predicted what Macri was going to do based on his history, ideology and the kind of campaign he ran. I am not happy to be proven right--the consequences are too painful for the majority of the Argentines
Enrique, it was very obvious to ALL what Macri would do.
Try to make economic reforms to attract investment and create a viable economy.
He started by firing the gov. employees who collected regular wages, but didn't report for work.
We knew what his opponents would do, also.
We read you like a book - you encouraged discontent through propaganda, accused Macri of waging a Class War, attempted to discredit him by denouncing him for not creating an economic turn around just weeks after becoming President.
Contrary to what you say, you are gloating that there are protests and discontent.
I would say your credibility is in tatters, but actually you are behaving exactly as we expected, dictated by your ideology...
Wouldn't be nice if your claims had a shred of evidence in support. But there is none and you know it.
You can still bring Macri propaganda that may have impressed people 15 months ago such as Try to make economic reforms to attract investment and create a viable economy. It is your denial of day-to-day reality that shows ideological, purposely blindness.
Now that people are taking to the streets every week, when people asking for promised jobs are camping on 9 de Julio Avenue in downtown Buenos Aires and citizens are finding that Cristina may not have been so bad after all, then the only thing left to regime puppets is to keep parroting their totally outdated discourse.
What really is in tatters here, my friend, is Macri's reputation, when public opinion polls locate Cambiemos third in the October legislative election voting intentions, behind Massa and behind...oh the horror! none other than Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.
Now that people are taking to the streets every week, when people asking for promised jobs are camping on 9 de Julio Avenue in downtown Buenos Aires
Those people camping out at 9 de Julio are exactly not the ones looking for jobs. They never will. How much does it cost to bring a man to a protest per day? 100 pesos, A woman with children per day? 300 pesos. A couple with two kids, living in the slum, not paying for any services or taxes whatsoever will make 400 pesos per day of protest on top of the 9000 pesos combined from their jobs at some obscure Cooperativa (I'd still like to see what they produce there) plus regular bags with groceries.
A shop clerk (Empleado de Comercio) pays taxes and utility bills. Is required to show up 8+ hours every day including 4+ on Saturdays and could probably end up with 12000 pesos (excluding any sales commissions -very thin in that line of work).
Why work then?
You should come visit more often my friend.
Who is paying these protesters? Doesn't that get very expensive when there are so many big protests?
And if families are getting that much money, why do they continue to live in the slum?
300 AR pesos per day for a mother and 2 children.
Isn't that about £10 ?
Several NGOs a.k.a Social Organizations. They get money. They use money. Taxpayers money. One of those NGOs got the status of union recently. Whatever they pay these people to protest is just pennies compared to the kind of money they manage.
Kanye, yes, that's about 18 USD a day (300 pesos).
So, they just get a little more than subsistence pay to protest and keep the corruption rolling.
Macri's government gives them money? Why on earth? Who are these NGOs and what are they really supposed to be doing with the money they get? I assume their official purpose is NOT paying people to protest?
£15 these days. Sucks for me but it's a good time for anyone else to come and visit the UK.
It would be pretty damn little to live on though.
It is not Macri that gives them money. These structures have evolved since the 2001 crisis and they have tightened their clutch over the govt stimulated by the Ks policies. (Organizations such as Piqueteros, Movimiento Evita, Barrios de Pie, etc.)
These organizations claim for help in the name of the poor. Things such as social emergency agreements. The govt has to settle with them, or else, well, you see what happens to the public space. Blocking of roads, etc.
They have also set up Cooperative entities, which is another source of income besides some percent on the subsidies that affiliated individuals perceive.
I believe this underlines what TF is saying...
An example of how values can undermine growth can be seen in the book “The Atrocious Charm of Being Argentine”. Its author Marcos Aguinis explains the famous concept of viveza criolla, and defines it as an Argentine custom which has an antisocial effect, spreads resentment and poisons mutual respect.
So the government gives money to these organisations and they give money to the poor? I'd ask why the government doesn't just give people money directly, but I suppose these groups are now too powerful to easily get rid of. How did they come to play such a large role in the first place?
Are cooperatives just businesses owned by the workers? That doesn't sound like a bad thing.
What a depressing article. It does seem like there are deeper problems that Macri is not addressing though.
Why doesn't the government give people money directly? Good question.
In some cases this has been implemented (not without a fight, like what happened in Jujuy province and the Tupac Amaru organization of Milagro Sala). Other organizations just ask their members for a collaboration. Not sure what grade of politeness do those kind of requests have.
I'm not against Cooperative entities. There are many of them that provide great services and goods. However, as every other thing these days, this concept has been bastardized by politics and there are many cooperatives that have been created as a cover for political pressure groups.
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