An XP Investimentos survey in partnership with the Institute of Social, Political and Economic Research (Ipespe) shows the Brazilian pre-candidates Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro, tied for first place with 13% of voting intentions each, followed by Ciro Gomes and Geraldo Alckmin, with 2% each.
Marina Silva, Alvaro Dias, and Jojo Amodo, are tied with 1% of the voting intentions. Of those interviewed, 40% said they do not know who will vote in the October elections, while the blank and null votes totaled 27% of the answers.
In a scenario in which former president Lula is replaced by Fernando Haddad as Workers' Party candidate, Bolsonaro takes the lead with 21% of the voting intentions, followed by Marina Silva with 14% and Ciro Gomes with 10%. Alckmin is in fourth place with 8%, followed by Alvaro Dias, who has 5%.
Although Lula leads the race in the scenarios in which his name is considered, he also has the lead in rejection (60%), tied with the pre-candidates Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, and Geraldo Alckmin. Jair Bolsonaro remains with rejection rate almost unchanged from the previous survey, oscillating from 52% to 53%.