Brazilian food supply and statistics agency Conab has reported that Brazil’s coffee production is expected to decline in 2019 to between 50.48 and 54.48 million bags. Conab attributes the 11.5 to 18% drop from the 61.65 million bags the agency reported for the year prior to Brazil’s coffee plants recovering from an increased output in 2018, which is affecting Arabica in particular.
Arabica production is estimated between 36.12 and 38.16 million bags, presenting a comparative reduction to the last harvest from 23.9 to 19.6%.
Conab predicts Brazilian Robusta production to grow at a rate of 1.3 to 15.2%, with the possibility of reaching between 14.36 and 16.33 million bags. It attributes this growth to a favorable climate and not suffering as much from the biennial cycle as Arabica.
The state the phenomenon will most affect is Minas Gerais. Responsible for more than half of the coffee harvested in Brazil, Conab estimates the state will reach between 26.4 and 27.7 million bags, compared to 33.36 million the past harvest.
Espírito Santo, which is responsible for approximately 65% of Brazil’s Robusta production, is expected to harvest between 12.48 and 14.73 million bags, similar to the previous harvest, at 13.74 million bags.
Conab’s report echoes sentiments the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shared in its December 2018 market report, which predicted Brazil’s output at 58.5 million bags.
Despite Brazil’s decline in coffee production, the ICO says the nation will remain the world’s largest coffee producer in 2019.