MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro exceeds Lula's despite his gains in voting intention

The figure coincides with an improvement for the Liberal Party candidate in voting intention. In a potential runoff he would take 40% against the president's 43%

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro registers a 54% rejection rate among Brazilian voters, two points above the 52% recorded by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to the Quaest poll released on Friday, two days before campaigning officially opens for the October 4 elections.

The figure coincides with an improvement for the Liberal Party candidate in voting intention. In a potential runoff he would take 40% against the president's 43%. It is the third consecutive measurement in which the gap has narrowed: in July Quaest recorded eight points of difference, in early August five, and now three. With a margin of error of two points, the current gap sits at the edge of statistical significance.

Measurements differ markedly depending on the pollster. The CNT/MDA survey, with fieldwork from August 5 to 9, gave Lula 48% against the senator's 39.1%, a gap of almost nine points, against the three points Quaest returns with fieldwork from August 10 to 13.

In the first round, the president takes 38% and Flávio Bolsonaro 31%. They are followed by Renan Santos and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, both on 4%. Lula will be the only one of the thirteen contenders running at the head of a formal multiparty coalition.

The survey was carried out after the senator confirmed as his running mate Alfredo Gaspar, a federal deputy for Alagoas, former prosecutor and former rapporteur of the parliamentary inquiry into the social security institute. On Thursday he presented his government programme, centered on combating organized crime, judicial reform, adjusting public spending and a foreign policy oriented towards the United States, Argentina and Israel. Lula released his the previous week, focused on defending sovereignty, reducing inequality and also tackling organized crime.

The opposition candidate's improvement coincides with reduced media attention on revelations about his links to businessman Daniel Vorcaro. In May, The Intercept published recordings and documents indicating the senator negotiated with him some 134 million reais to finance a biographical film about his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, has been in detention since November 2025 in connection with a fraud investigation; the bank was wound up by the central bank days after his arrest. Flávio Bolsonaro has not been charged or convicted in the case and maintains it was private sponsorship for a private project, with no public funds involved.

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between August 10 and 13, with a 95% confidence level.