Argentina inflation expectations 30% and 20 percentage points above official index
Argentina's 12-month inflation expectations held steady for a seventh consecutive month at 30% in September, according to the median estimate in a survey published by the Torcuato Di Tella University, UTDT. However after three steady months expectations eased with the average response sliding to 34.9% from 39.8% in August.
UTDT said on Tuesday in its closely watched monthly report that this was the longest period in the history of the survey in which inflation expectations remained at 30%. Furthermore the gap between median inflation expectations and the level of inflation the government is expected to report stood at 20 percentage points in the survey, the university said.
“The public expects a level of inflation three times what the national statistics agency is expected to announce,” the university said.
Argentina's national statistics agency Indec, said annual inflation as measured by its consumer price index was 10% at the end of August. However the credibility of Indec CPI has been called into question ever since long-serving professional staff at the agency was replaced with political appointees in early 2007.
The administration of President Cristina Fernandez regularly denies charges that it manipulates Indec economic data, but private consultants are banned from making public their estimates fearing they could be fined (as has happened) or even imprisoned.
However most private-sector economists said annual inflation is running between 20% and 25% as the central bank increases the money supply to finance government spending.
The statement is supported by the so called “Congressional inflation index” which is an average of the different private consultants released monthly by lawmakers from the opposition belonging to the Freedom of Expression Committee. Their latest release this month was 24.23% for the twelve months to September.
“The gap between public opinion expected inflation and that from the Central bank survey where consultants are asked about official Indec inflation expectations is 20 percentage points. A gap of such magnitude shows the scarce reliability of the official stats on inflation”, said Guido Sandleris, head of the UTDT Financial Research Centre which elaborates the expectations index.
The central bank's M2 measure of money supply rose 34.6% on the year in August, well above its full-year target of a 26.4% increase. UTDT report was based on a nationwide survey of 1,209 people by consultancy Poliarquia Consultores during the first week of September.
Suggested Stories
-
May 21st 2013
Argentines expect inflation to average 34.9% in the next twelve months
-
May 21st 2013
Argentina absorbs 93% of beef production, exports tumble behind Paraguay
-
May 20th 2013
Brazil trapped by Argentina and Venezuela economic mismanagements
-
May 18th 2013
Economic activity in Argentina expanded 2.6% during March, says Indec
33 comments Feed
Note: Comments do not reflect MercoPress’ opinions. They are the personal view of our users. We wish to keep this as open and unregulated as possible. However, rude or foul language, discriminative comments (based on ethnicity, religion, gender, nationality, sexual orientation or the sort), spamming or any other offensive or inappropriate behaviour will not be tolerated. Please report any inadequate posts to the editor. Comments must be in English. Thank you.
still,
you do pick em, dont you .
The IMF have no idea what to do with the financial errant child that is Argentina.
The three months is as much for the benefit of the IMF as it is leeway for another stunt by TMBOA.
Argentina must now produce real numbers or face censure, the first one to every be censure. So their government inflation numbers will rise steadily and peso drop in value over the next three months, or they will be out of the international trade markets, expect for maybe N.Korea, Syria and Iran, and neighboring countries that are experiencing recession also.
As Think has said many times he is perfectly fine with 30-40% since he has seen worse. Too bad they have never seen better.
If it's viable then what you all need is a trustworthy friend in a first world country with a stable currency.
Hello ladies. How you doin' ? (I assume all the malvinista nutters on here are male)
She's an old woman and your comments strip her of the tiny amount of dignity she may have left.
Seeing her in person is a waking nightmare.
will someone please pass the mind bleach?
img-cache.cdn.gaiaonline.com/3eaf4d075511bef71b764380c42eef33/http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f221/turpeinen/Macros/1212544071135.jpg
After you with the mind bleach...
No she's not, she certainly looks younger than she is but even in terms of her years she's not
Poppy tell us more, what was so nightmarish about meeting her???
“In the picture accompanying this article, Kretina is describing BK's attributes!!!!!”
Apart from being the best known wanker in LatAm, does he have any? :o)
Sep 20th, 2012 - 03:51 pm
Yes, well known for the volume of his wet dreams!!!!!
The argentine leader has a perfect beauty compared to the UK “royals” women.
The argentine leader is maintaning a beautiful reddish-brown long hair, bright big brown eyes, oval face and perfect lips. Her skin is healthy compared to the faces of Camilla wrinkles ...the “Frown” looks of Elizabeth the II for Nothing.
Prince William's wife is Kathie 5'11” 98 lbs. is the ugliest woman in the world with thin TITS, thin LIPS and half of a VAGINA NECK!
Now, get in the picture Conqueror, Captain Poppy...screwing Prince William's wife Kathie....no tits, no lips with half Vagina Neck....hehehe nothing to start the bang bang bang....hehehe
However......if ass lips kirchner sucks anymore fat from her ass to inject in her lips, she will have to stick her head in the tiolet for her next bowel movement.
in this web site....He does not care about the “UK” or
the “USA” ....he said he likes CFK and Argentina...and “his wife” has family ...and plans to travel to Argie land....because he likes....the Argies ...better than the UK and/or USA....
You sound Knackered!
Luis Secco, an independent economist, said the government’s projections of total income rising 23.8 per cent and primary spending up 15.5 per cent compared with this year, way out of line with his estimates of 27 per cent income and 28 per cent spending, based on higher possible inflation for 2013 than the budget’s 10.8 per cent forecast. In a note to clients, he said he expected the bill to pass, meaning:
In 2013, once again, the budget will not prove a useful tool to evaluate the slant of fiscal policy.
He likes everything from Argieland, the leader, the women, everything.That's why he keeps posting his comments....but never will release his name, address or phone number from Argieland or anywhere...
why?
He is a rubbish bloody english arse!
Commenting for this story is now closed.
If you have a Facebook account, become a fan and comment on our Facebook Page!