MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Downward revision reported for Argentine 2024 agricultural exports

“Although a gradual recovery is expected, uncertainty persists,” the BCR said

Argentina's 2024 exports of soybean, corn, wheat, sunflower, and barley have been projected to reach barely US$ 29.3 billion, which would represent a US$ 5.7 billion recovery from 2023 but a US$ 1.7 billion slump compared to the last five years' average, the Grain Stock Exchange in Rosario (BCR) announced in its latest Guía Estratégica para el Agro (GEA) report. The new figures represent an 18% downward revision from December's calculations.

After the historic drought suffered during the previous season, the return of rains towards the end of last year “made it possible to foresee a strong recovery in grain production for the 2023/24″ cycle. ”However, the impact of the leafhopper on corn, particularly late corn, cuts the estimate of yellow grain production“ by 11% than expected a month ago,” the document stated.

“While a month ago the total grain production was expected to reach 137.6 Mt for the new cycle and to be the second highest production campaign, with this cut in the corn estimate the total volume falls to 131.1 Mt, thus remaining below even other previous figures,” it went on.

In addition to the lower output, the fall in international prices contributes to the slide. “In fact, considering the five main agricultural complexes, the export projection for 2024 is US$ 30 billion and stands at US$ 29.3 billion,” the study showed. Although a recovery is to be noted, “the value of exports of these products would be US$ 1.7 billion below the average of the last five years.”

“It is necessary to consider that in the estimation of foreign dispatches for the 2024 calendar year, two campaigns for each crop have an impact. In the case of winter crops, it impacts the production of 2023/2024 and 2024/2025,″ the Rosario Stock Exchange stressed.

Regarding other agricultural products, ”the estimate for the 2023/24 season reaches US$ 30.7 billion, a drop of US$ 800 million concerning the previous estimate.“ Although this figure would mean a recovery of US$ 5.7 billion between seasons, it would still be below values in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 cycles, given the collapse of international prices and the negative effects of the ”leafhopper“ on corn crops.

April's monthly report GEA by Tomas Rodríguez Zurro and Emilce Terré found that the impact of the leafhopper on corn, especially on late crops, reduced yellow grain production expectations by 11%, placing them at 50.5 million tons. This decrease, coupled with other factors, led to a downward revision in the total grain production estimate for the 2023/24 cycle.

”Although a gradual recovery is expected, uncertainty persists on the horizon amid a variable global economic context,” the authors of the document also explained.

High temperatures, abundant rainfall, and the staggering of sowing dates resulted in the rapid reproduction and migration of the pest known as leafhopper, which causes corn stunt. The leafhopper is endemic to the northern part of Argentina and in 2024 it was detected earlier than in previous years.