If trade strife continues between the United States and Mexico despite a deal struck on Friday, Argentine grain exporters are ready to step in to meet Mexican food demand, the head of an Argentine industry chamber said.
Argentina's soy production will likely reach 56 million tons for the 2018/2019 season, two million tons more than previously estimated, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, a fillip for the sector that was battered by drought last year.
Brazilian agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado announced a small cut in its projection for the country’s 2018/2019 soybean crop in a statement on Friday, as weather stopped worsening in key growing regions. Safras cut its projection to 115.402 million tons from a 115.718 million-toe forecast in January, as the effects of a drought that has stressed fields subsided.
Brazilian farmers sped up soy and corn plantings this week for the country’s next grain crop, under favorable weather conditions and a positive market outlook, despite a sharp fall in soybean futures in Chicago on Tuesday. Soybean planting in Brazil’s second-largest producing state of Paraná reached 9% of the expected final area this week, up 8 percentage points from last week and compared to only 1 percent at this time last year, as ample soil moisture allowed for a quick start of fieldwork.
Consultancy Agroconsult lowered its forecast for Brazil's so-called second corn crop to 55.2 million tons on Monday but left its export projection unchanged after a survey of fields in four states affected by planting delays and a drought. Agroconsult had estimated last month that the second crop, which farmers are currently harvesting, would total 57 million tons.
A prolonged drought wreaking havoc on Argentina's soybean and corn crops could threaten the country's economic performance in 2018, an official said, as the country seeks to grow for a second straight year after several years of biting recession.
The lack of rain triggered by the La Nina weather phenomenon has prompted the Rosario Exchange to cut its forecast of Argentina’s 2017/2018 corn and soybean crop by 12% and 10%, respectively, making it one of the most bearish analysts in the market.
Mexican buyers imported ten times more corn from Brazil last year amid concern that NAFTA renegotiations could disrupt their U.S. supplies, according to government data and top grains merchants. Mexico is on track to buy more Brazilian corn in 2018, which would hurt a U.S. agricultural sector already struggling with low grains prices and the rising competitive threat from South America.
Over the last 25 years, the US farmer has become increasingly aware of the impact of South American agricultural output on the global supply of grains and oilseeds. For example, in recent years Brazil has risen to the number one position as an exporter of soybeans.
Brazil's economic output grew 2.3% in 2013 for a third straight year of modest expansion by Latin America's biggest economy, the government announced on Thursday. GDP for the final quarter of the year rose a 0.7% compared to the third quarter, according to Brazil's Institute for Geography and Statistics, IBGE.