Venezuela’s Capriles with a fair chance of winning the “mother of all political battles”
With less than three weeks for the “mother of all political battles” in Venezuela but that will have repercussions in the rest of the continent, the latest public opinion polls are indicating that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles is leading with 52% vote intention while Hugo Chavez has 48%.
The poll from Interdata was released in the media outside Venezuela, including Argentina, and shows that Capriles has a landslide support in the A and B higher social brackets (81%); in the intermediate, 53.74% while in D and E, President Chavez leads with 52% against 48%. The urban population prefers Capriles 53% and so do the young with 57.8%.
However the poll, no matter how encouraging for the opposition also indicates that there is 25% which is abstaining, and looking back into recent ballots fits with the percentage that normally remains aside as happened in 2008, 2009 and 2010.
If this reasoning is correct, and as military intelligence opinion polls which reached the hands of Chavez indicate he is trailing, next 7 October Venezuela could be putting an end to 14 years of Bolivarian revolution and voting in a new fresh, healthy, strong face, Capriles. All the attributes Chavez seems to have lost with the outbreak of his terminal disease that already has reached the head of his femur, according to veteran Nelson Bocaranda, probably the best informed and most respected journalist and political analyst in Venezuela.
Bocaranda suggests that the hyperactive very much limited in his campaigning because of the disease, in a recent statement, in tears, complaining that he could no longer walk freely in the streets and plains of his beloved Venezuela, allegedly because of his notoriety, in reality he was referring to his losing physical mobility and growing pains.
Former governor Capriles who also has an impressive record in winning elections against all odds as is the case now, but challenging a physically diminished Chavez, has promised to keep the social support programs of the revolution, but also put an end to violence, improve public services, decent jobs and above all make sure every penny of oil revenue is spent in Venezuela.
Not as has happened with Chavez, playing international politics for which he has dilapidated over 170 billion dollars, claims Capriles, who adds he will be very satisfied (and busy) as simple president of Venezuela with no need of becoming an international figure or deciding global affairs. “An end to ‘assistancism’” is the rallying call.
And even when opinion polls in Latinamerica and particularly in Venezuela, those that are released are more faithful to whoever contracts them than to reality, the ‘non-exposed’ polls seem to coincide that Capriles has a good chance.
Furthermore Bocaranda wrote in his ‘Runrunes’ (rumours on target) column this week that several of the circumstantial allies of Chavez, such as China, Russia and Byelorussia have asked for the immediate repayment by Venezuela of all commitments (until January 2013) in the several projects these countries are involved (trains, housing, arms, etc).
Besides Chavez is furious because the Chinese and Russians have already established contacts with the Capriles command. China has over 40bn dollars in Venezuelan projects and Russia another 20bn and fear Capriles could redirect foreign policy.
Diplomatic sources also confirmed that during the latest meeting of Mercosur leaders, 31 July in Brazil, when Chavez finally saw his dream of full member of the group come true, the two ladies, host Dilma Rousseff and prima-dona Cristina Fernandez warned the Caribbean leader about playing with the results of the election. They would look aside to all tricks during the electoral campaign but when the results are in, there will be a winner and it could be any of the two hopefuls.
“It is a race with much hope but with no pre-arranged winner”.
Any doubts about the results or joggling with ballots, will not have the support of Mercosur or from Unasur for that matter, underlined the ladies.
Thus as most political analysts now dare to say, Capriles has a fair chance, it’s no longer impossible to beat Chavez. And not to say of the consequences for the rest of the continent and those countries highly dependent of Chavez open hand.
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“According to Reuters, ”Polls are historically controversial in Venezuela“, pointing out that ”Venezuelan pollsters - who range from a former Chavez minister to an openly pro-opposition figure - also tend to double as political analysts, offering partisan opinions in state media or opposition-linked newspapers.“[77] In addition, it said that ”As in previous elections, a proliferation of little-known public opinion firms with no discernable track record have emerged from obscurity promoting polls that appear to openly favor one candidate or the other.“[77] In June 2012 most pollsters showed Capriles behind by at least 15 percentage points, and intention to vote for Chávez slowly increasing since the end of 2011. One firm, Hinterlaces, was accused by Capriles of publishing ”bogus polls“.[77] The Chavez campaign accused Datanalisis and Consultores 21 of inventing polls to support opposition plans to claim fraud in the event of defeat.[77]”
“Although the poll results vary widely, most of the variation is by pollster; results from individual pollsters are quite stable over time.”
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2012#Opinion_polling
That will be RGland stuffed then....
Will he go to war,
Will his trusty companion CFK ride to his aid,
Will Mercosur come to help him,
Will the Calvary turn up. with the mighty OAS,
Or will he go quietly, and the world forget him.
mmmmm
He won't lose, he doesn't want to leave. He will abuse his powers to win, if he has to.
“I believe that Chavez still has an edge.”
I agree, it's on the knives of his 'supporters' much like La Camping-it-up in your beloved country.
I would like to see one or two 'edges' shoved in his gut and twisted.
But heh, I'm a fun sort of guy!
I don't know about Rousseff but in my humble opinion, I don't think we will hear a peep out of CFK about any irregularities in the election results.
Prog American - I don't really care if you support socialism or not, but tyranny is not good for any country and you should recognize when a leader has become a tyrant. It doesn't matter if the tyrant to the left like Hugo or to the right like Pinochet, both are tyrants and both are unacceptable.
Well said.
I think those posters in 18, 19 & 20 have covered my intended reply.
It's actually terrible news for Mercosur. Chávez is quite the Latin Americanist. I doubt this is Capriles's case, though. I bet he would try to orient both his economic and foreign policy towards the US and away from South America.
He is certainly pan-American, but if Brazil wants to be at the heart of a strong Mercosur , Chavez’s international meddling cannot be good.
I am sure you are right about Capriles, but a more open market Venezuela wouldn’t be bad for Mercosur.
Being more oriented to the economic policy of the USA is a huge benefit to a country. Remember that the USA is still the largest consumer in the world, so having your products available to that market is crucial for development. Now the USA's foreign policy is crap, so it may not be worth the benefit of the american market. Also with both republicans and democrats moving towards socialism/totalitarianism, the benefits of the economic policy may not last much longer.
Anyway you look at it, Hugo Chavez's socialistic model has been an utter failure. I know nothing about Capriles and his economic policies, but you can't get much worse than Hugo Chavez.
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